基于综合变异系数的地基承载力可靠性分析

采用一次二阶矩法,考虑岩土参量变异系数的试验及历史数据,提出了基于综合变异系数的地基承载力简化可靠性与风险分析方法。利用提出的简化可靠性与风险分析方法,可在传统确定性分析的基础上,采用合理的变异系数,分别得到与地基承载力有关的可靠度、破坏概率和平均期望损失的最可能值及其变化范围,为提出优化的地基基础设计方案和工程决策奠定基础;相对于土重度和黏聚力,地基承载力可靠度对于内摩擦角的变化更加敏感;设计时可以综合考虑所需的安全系数、可靠度和破坏概率,确定合适的基础宽度或基底面积。当地基土的场地勘察统计结果的变异系数权重逐渐增加时,综合变异系数不断减小,其相应的地基承载力的可靠度逐渐增加,而相应的破坏概率逐渐减少。     

渭河河谷甘肃段水资源承载能力分析

本文在论述渭河河谷甘肃段水资源分布特点及现状利用量和承载量的基础上,分析了水资源的承栽能力,认为区内水资源最佳承载量是355万人,355亿元工业产值和248.5万亩的可灌高效农田.据此提出了城市发展规模的大小,目的是供地方政府规划参考.     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

井筒式地下连续墙水平承载能力模型试验研究

井筒式地下连续墙利用构造接头把地下连续墙段连接成一个平面为封闭形状挡土结构,其刚度大,承载力高。由于基础内部含有大面积的土芯,存在墙内土芯、墙体以及外部土体的相互作用。采用水平单向单循环维持荷载法,通过3个不同截面尺寸的单孔闭合墙水平静载试验,研究闭合地下连续墙基础的水平承载特性。基于墙身内力及位移测试结果,研究了井筒式地下连续墙基础在水平荷载作用下的承载机理,分析了水平荷载-位移特性、墙身位移、墙身弯矩、剪力、转角随深度的分布规律。试验结果表明,闭合墙基础呈整体倾斜破坏特性,墙身弯矩随墙深呈非线性变化,墙身剪力在加载处最大,在墙身弯矩极大值处墙身剪力为0,0点以下,墙身剪力随深度呈“大肚形”变化,并且闭合墙的承载力随着闭合墙边长的增大,深度的提高而提高。     

Laboratory Measurement and Correction of Thermal Properties for Application to the Rock Mass

The requirement for quantitative thermal property data in assessing the performance of an engineered repository is identified. Experimental methods for the measurement of thermal conductivity, thermal expansivity and heat capacity are outlined and typical test results are presented for two rock-types of interest in relation to the Sellafield site. The controls on the thermal properties are discussed and a series of corrections from the rock material to the rock mass properties are presented. Finally, a correction scheme that accounts for the effect of scale is followed.     

用非等时距序列灰色模型预测粉喷桩的承载力

针对粉喷桩单桩承载力具有随时间增长而增大的现象,运用灰色理论,建立了非等时距预测GM（1, 1）模型,对粉喷桩承载力进行了预测,并取得了很好的效果。通过实测值与预测值的分析,认清了粉喷桩承载力的时效性规律及变化趋势,提出了进行粉喷桩单桩载荷试验的适宜时间。     

Distribution,potential sources and ecological risks of two persistent organic pollutants in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary,Bohai Sea of China

Spatial distribution, source apportionment, and potential ecological risks of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and seven endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) in the intertidal sediment at the Shuangtaizi Estuary, Bohai Sea of China were analyzed. Results showed that the total PAH concentrations ranged from 28.79 ng g^? 1 dw to 281.97 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 115.92 ng g^? 1 dw) and the total EDC concentrations from 0.52 ng g^? 1 dw to 126.73 ng g^? 1 dw (mean: 37.49 ng g^? 1 dw). The distribution pattern for the PAHs was generally different from that of the EDCs possibly due to their distinct sources and n-octanol-/water partition coefficients (K_OW). Qualitative and quantitative analytical results showed that PAH sources were mainly from a mixture of pyrogenic and petrogenic contributions. The higher levels at the southeast of Geligang indicated that the EDC pollutants may have mainly originated from the plastic industry and other chemical plants located along the Liao River. Ecological risk assessment revealed that PAHs exhibited low ecotoxicological effects, whereas EDCs, especially 4-tert-octylphenol and bisphenol A, had high ecological hazard to the estuarine biota.     

三门峡水库水文要素整编计算软件的设计与实现

本文针对三门峡水库工作实际,分析了目前数字技术条件下三门峡水库水文要素摘录蓄水量计算工作所处的困境和应解决的具体问题,以此为基础提出了三门峡水库水文要素整编计算软件的系统组成和功能模块构成,实现并完成了系统功能设计。     

从翡翠原石交易看翡翠市场的发展趋势

以翡翠原石投标为主体的缅甸珍宝玉石交易会（俗称“公盘”）一直是翡翠价格风向标,翡翠原石价格的上涨必然会推动成品价格的迅速跟进.通过对翡翠市场爆发式增长后的近几年原石交易特点的分析,发现所谓“原石价格上涨”完全是市场炒作的结果,一些玉商为了维护自身利益,聘请“枪手”投标,中标后又违约拒绝领标,造成原石投标交易现场火爆,价格屡创新高,但实际成交率却很低.从翡翠成品市场的反应来看,虽然价格有所上涨,但涨幅并不与媒体夸张的报道相适应.分析认为,玉商在翡翠原石交易中的行为需要进一步规范;在原石供应短缺和玉商极力维护自身利益的情况下,翡翠的价格不可能大幅度波动;高档翡翠因原料近于枯竭,价格还有进一步的上涨空间;在产能过剩的市场环境中,翡翠市场重归活跃尚待时日.     

Construction of ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District

Oasis is the core area of social and economic development in the arid western regions, and is also a territory with prominent ecological environmental problems. Because of the unreasonable development and utilization of soil and water resources, the ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District is threatened by soil salinization, shrinkage of lakes and wetlands, and deterioration of water environment. As for these environmental problems, the direct cause is the loss of regulation of groundwater depth or serious pollution of water caused by man-made irrational exploitation, and the root cause lies in shortage of water resources and unreasonable allocation of water resources. In this regard, it is believed that the primary task for the construction ecological environment of oasis in Qingtongxia Irrigation District is to adjust the allocation structure of water resources and to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, for which the direct means is to carry out dynamic control of water and salt based on the ecological landscape structure and land type in the Irrigation District in accordance with local conditions.