GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式(R42L9)与一全球海洋环流模式(T63L30)耦合形成的全球海洋-大气-陆面气候系统模式(GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分30 a的模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度(SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容.结果表明,COALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象.但COALS模式也存在明显的不足,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象,因此也影响了对南亚、东南亚降水年际变化的模拟能力.     

海洋平流的季节变化对La Nia事件成熟位相锁定的作用

用一个中等复杂程度的热带海气耦合模式模拟LaNi na事件成熟位相锁定在年底左右的特征并研究其形成的机制。结果表明 ,模式能很好地模拟观测到的LaNi na事件成熟位相锁定在年底左右的特征。LaNi na事件成熟位相锁定在年底主要由海洋气候基本态引起。海洋垂直平均流是LaNi na事件成熟位相锁定在年底左右的最主要因子。由海洋气候基本态的季节变化所引起的冷平流的季节变化是LaNi na事件成熟位相锁定在年底的机制。在LaNi na事件期间 ,1～ 5月份 ,赤道中东太平洋地区的冷平流较弱 ,它不能平衡海气热量交换过程的影响 ,因而海洋表面温度增加。这一过程使海气耦合不稳定度减弱 ,从而使LaNi na事件衰减。 6～ 12月份 ,赤道中东太平洋地区的冷平流较强。海气热量交换过程的影响不能平衡较强冷平流的影响 ,因而海洋表面温度减小。这一过程使海气耦合不稳定度加强 ,从而使LaNi na事件发展。这样 ,LaNi na事件成熟位相容易出现在年底左右。     

The effective number of cycles of earthquake ground motion

The seismic response of any system that accumulates damage under cyclic loading is dependent not only on the maximum amplitude of the motion but also its duration. This is explicitly recognized in methods for estimating the liquefaction potential of soil deposits. Many researchers have proposed that the effective number of cycles of the ground motion is a more robust indicator of the destructive capacity of the shaking than the duration. However, as is the case with strong‐motion duration, there is no universally accepted approach to determining the effective number of cycles of motion, and the different methods that have been proposed can give widely varying results for a particular accelerogram. Definitions of the effective number of cycles of motion are reviewed, classified and compared. Measurements are found to differ particularly for accelerograms with broad‐banded frequency content, which contain a significant number of non‐zero crossing peaks. The key seismological parameters influencing the number of cycles of motion and associated equations for predicting this quantity for future earthquakes are identified. Correlations between cycle counts and different duration measures are explored and found to be rather poor in the absence of additional parameters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flooding of the continental shelves as a contributor to deglacial CH4 rise

The transition from the last glacial and beginning of Bølling–Allerød and Pre‐Boreal periods in particular is marked by rapid increases in atmospheric methane (CH₄) concentrations. The CH₄ concentrations reached during these intervals, ～650–750 ppb, is twice that at the last glacial maximum and is not exceeded until the onset of industrialization at the end of the Holocene. Periods of rapid sea‐level rise as the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheets retreated and associated with ‘melt‐water pulses’ appear to coincide with the onset of elevated concentrations of CH₄, suggestive of a potential causative link. Here we identify and outline a mechanism involving the flooding of the continental shelves that were exposed and vegetated during the glacial sea‐level low stand and that can help account for some of these observations. Specifically, we hypothesize that waterlogging (and later, flooding) of large tracts of forest and savanna in the Tropics and Subtropics during the deglacial transition and early Holocene would have resulted in rapid anaerobic decomposition of standing biomass and emission of methane to the atmosphere. This novel mechanism, akin to the consequences of filling new hydroelectric reservoirs, provides a mechanistic explanation for the apparent synchronicity between rate of sea‐level rise and occurrence of elevated concentrations of ice core CH₄. However, shelf flooding and the creation of transient wetlands are unlikely to explain more than ～60 ppb of the increase in atmospheric CH₄ during the deglacial transition, requiring additional mechanisms to explain the bulk of the glacial to interglacial increase. Similarly, this mechanism has the potential also to play some role in the rapid changes in atmospheric methane associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Long-Term Variability of the Wind Field over the Indian Ocean Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis

A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100?W?m^?2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500?W?m^?2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600?W?m^?2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50?W?m^?2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280?W?m^?2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.     

西太平洋暖池热盐结构盐度场变异的主模态

基于1950~2011年间的月平均温、盐度资料,以28℃等温线作为西太平洋暖池的定义标准,并取ΔT=-0.4℃,分别计算了暖池区(20°N~15°S,120°E~140°W)各格点混合层、障碍层和深层的平均盐度,构成了暖池热盐结构的盐度场.据此,运用EOF分解法分析了暖池热盐结构盐度距平场主要模态的变化特征及其与ENSO间的关系,并探讨了主要模态的年际变异机理.结果表明,暖池热盐结构盐度场第一模态揭示了盐度场变异的关键区位于暖池中部;该模态具有2~4a的年际变化和准10a的年代际变化,并在1977年前后经历了一次气候跃变(此外,深层盐度场第一模态还在1999年前后发生了一次气候跃变),且在跃变前后与不同类型的ENSO事件有较密切的联系.暖池中部混合层和障碍层盐度的变化比较一致,即在跃变前盐度为偏高期,而在跃变后则变为偏低期.暖池中部深层盐度在1977年以前和1999年之后皆处于偏高期,而在1978~1999年间则处于偏低期.而且,从混合层至深层,盐度的变化幅度逐渐变小.进一步分析表明,暖池中部混合层和障碍层盐度的年际变化主要是由纬向风、南赤道流(SEC)和降水共同引起的,即当东风增强(减弱)时,强(弱)SEC将携带更多(少)的高盐水进入混合层或潜沉至障碍层,同时局地降水的减少(增多),也使得混合层和障碍层的盐度增加(减少);深层盐度的年际变化主要是由SEC和赤道潜流(EUC)导致的,即当SEC增强(减弱)时,将有更多(少)的高盐水进入暖池,而当EUC增强(减弱)时则有更多(少)的低盐水流出暖池,从而使得暖池的深层盐度升高(降低).     

冻融循环对不同孔隙率页岩相似材料影响的试验研究

基于地质力学模型试验的相似理论,针对寒区岩体工程,分别制作了5种不同孔隙率的页岩相似材料,进行冻融循环试验,探究不同孔隙率的页岩相似材料在冻融前后,其主要物理力学参数的变化规律。试验研究表明：在冻融循环后,页岩相似材料的单轴抗压强度、三轴抗压强度、弹性模量、粘聚力、内摩擦角有不同程度的减小,孔隙率、泊松比有不同程度的增大。页岩相似材料的物理力学参数受冻融循环的影响随孔隙率的增大先增大后减小,孔隙率处于9.4%~13.6%时,受冻融循环影响最大;孔隙率处于5.8%~9.4%时,受冻融循环的影响随孔隙率的增大有增大的趋势;孔隙率处于13.9%~19.1%时,受冻融循环的影响随孔隙率的增大有减小的趋势。研究结果可以为西部寒区的岩土工程建设和减灾提供相关的科学依据。     

煤渣改良土的抗冻能力及损伤特性研究

为研究煤渣改良土作为季节冻土区路基填料的抗冻能力,以不同煤渣掺量及不同养护龄期下的煤渣改良土为研究对象,利用GDS三轴试验系统开展了不同冻融次数下改良土的三轴压缩试验,获得了最佳的煤渣掺量及养护时间数据,提出冻融及加载综合影响下改良土的总损伤变量,并据此建立了损伤本构关系。结果表明：改良土的抗冻能力随着煤渣掺入量的增大出现先增强后减弱的变化趋势,随龄期的增长而逐渐增强。冻融循环对改良土物理力学性质的影响主要集中在前5次循环过程,超过5次后影响逐渐减弱。冻融加载总损伤变量能够较好地反映冻融及加载过程中改良土性质的劣化,据此建立的损伤本构关系具有一定的精度,可以为季节冻土区煤渣改良土路基工程提供参考。