多普勒雷达径向速度同化在淮河暴雨数值模拟中的应用

针对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),开展了多普勒雷达径向速度的三维变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果的影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料,同化后使得模式初始场出现了一定的调整,包含更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著改善模式对大暴雨过程前12h降水的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,能较好地提高中尺度降雨预报。     

THERMAL FORCING IMPACTS OF THE EASTERLY VORTEX ON THE EAST-WEST SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets(1 000 to 10 hPa,2.5°× 2.5°),the thermal forcing impacts are analyzed of an easterly vortex(shortened as EV) over the tropical upper troposphere on the quasi-horizontal movement of the Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone(shortened as WPS A) during 22-25 June 2003.The relevant mechanisms are discussed as well.It is shown that the distribution and intensity of the non-adiabatic effect near the EV result in the anomalous eastward retreat of the WPSA.The WPSA prefers extending to the colder region,i.e.,it moves toward the region in which the non-adiabatic heating is weakening or the cooling is strengthening.During the WPSA retreat,the apparent changes of non-adiabatic heating illustrate the characteristics of enhanced cooling in the east side of the EV.Meanwhile,the cooling in the west side exhibits a weakened eastward trend,most prominently at 300 hPa in the troposphere.The evidence on the factors causing the change in thermal condition is found:the most important contribution to the heating-rate trend is the vertical transport term,followed in turn by the local change in the heating rate term and the horizontal advection term.As a result,the atmospheric non-adiabatic heating generated by the vertical transport and local change discussed above is mainly connected to the retreat of the WPSA.     

宁波非气象雷达回波的人工智能识别及滤波

统计分析2003—2006年宁波雷达的非气象杂波, 影响杂波主要为地物杂波, 包括普通地物杂波 (NP杂波) 和异常地物杂波 (AP杂波) ; 并分析这些杂波在反射率因子、径向速度、谱宽产品上不连续的离散状分布等特征。基于以上特征及传统杂波识别的经验而设计出一种近似模拟人眼模糊识别的稳定安全的多维线性近似的杂波识别及其过滤算法, 在 190 个个例测试中大都效果较好, 尤其在 150 km 以内, 能够在确保降水数据完整、准确的基础上有效过滤非气象杂波。     

A Comparison of De-noising Methods for Differential Phase Shift and Associated Rainfall Estimation

Measured differential phase shift ΦDP is known to be a noisy unstable polarimetric radar variable, such that the quality of ΦDP data has direct impact on specific differential phase shift KDP estimation, and subsequently, the KDP-based rainfall estimation. Over the past decades, many ΦDP de-noising methods have been developed; however, the de-noising effects in these methods and their impact on KDP-based rainfall estimation lack comprehensive comparative analysis. In this study, simulated noisy ΦDP data were generated and de-noised by using several methods such as finite-impulse response(FIR), Kalman, wavelet,traditional mean, and median filters. The biases were compared between KDP from simulated and observedΦDP radial profiles after de-noising by these methods. The results suggest that the complicated FIR, Kalman,and wavelet methods have a better de-noising effect than the traditional methods. After ΦDP was de-noised,the accuracy of the KDP-based rainfall estimation increased significantly based on the analysis of three actual rainfall events. The improvement in estimation was more obvious when KDP was estimated with ΦDP de-noised by Kalman, FIR, and wavelet methods when the average rainfall was heavier than 5 mm h-1.However, the improved estimation was not significant when the precipitation intensity further increased to a rainfall rate beyond 10 mm h-1. The performance of wavelet analysis was found to be the most stable of these filters.     

单多普勒雷达资料在伴随模式同化系统中的应用研究

利用变分方法反演单多普勒雷达资料,得到风矢量场。同时,利用MM5伴随模式同化系统,结合一次暴雨过程,设计四种方案,进行数值模拟试验。结果表明,通过变分方法反演的雷达资料的应用对于暴雨的分布预报有明显的改善作用;运用伴随方法同化雷达资料后可改善对暴雨中心的预报;对于各个物理量误差的减少,雷达资料的应用也起到重要作用,尤其是对于风场作用较为明显;雷达资料的应用可加快伴随模式同化系统目标函数的收敛,得到最优初始场。     

"8.28"过程的多普勒雷达回波与水汽输送特征分析

利用多普勒天气雷达资料及NCEP＼NCAR逐日每6h再分析资料,对甘肃省2003年8月27～28日的连续性大到暴雨过程(简称“8．28”过程)进行了分析。结果表明：多普勒零速度线在测站两侧顺转程度不一致,是暖平流和大尺度辐合运动的叠加所造成的,这一结构为强降水的产生和维持提供了有利的水汽垂直输送和辐合上升运动;逆风区、中小尺度的辐合辐散都与强降水之间存在着密切的关系,是临近降水预报的重要指标;降水的区域和量级与水汽通量输送的大小及其辐合程度有关。     

浙江中西部一次大范围降水过程的多普勒雷达资料分析

运用多普勒天气雷达和天气图资料,对2006年7月6日出现在浙江中西部的1次大面积强降水过程进行了分析,探讨了多普勒天气雷达资料在大面积降水过程中的图像特征。发现在不同的降水时段,垂直风廓线(VWP)产品和径向速度PPI图像都表现出非常明显的特征。利用EVAD技术和变分法计算的散度和垂直速度产品,能比较直观地反映这次过程中大气各层辐合、辐散和垂直运动情况,并以此对浙江大面积降水过程发生、发展、维持和消亡的动力学机制进行了探讨。     

多普勒雷达速度场缺测区域填补技术的数值模拟

针对多普勒天气雷达探测风场时,常因大面积无回波区的存在,对提取平均散度和平均形变信息的精度有较大影响。利用Sirmans建议的技术来模拟降水回波信号,得到含有0、1、2阶谐波的平面线性速度场并进行加噪处理,得到近乎真实的多普勒速度场。对模拟的平面线性速度场人为设定无回波区,利用VAD技术和迭代法对平面线性速度场做连续性缺口和非连续性缺口的迭代法填补。数值模拟结果表明:对于模拟的无噪声平面线性速度场,迭代法可以基本无误差填补连续性累积缺口在10°到180°的速度场无回波区;对连续性累积缺口,在σ_v=2m·s~(-1),SNR≥5 dB和SNR=20 dB,σ_v≤4 m·s~(-1)的情况下,连续性累积缺口在120°以内,迭代法能较高精度地填补速度场无回波区,填补后0、1、2阶谐波误差绝对值基本能控制在15%以内,80 km距离圈上缺口处迭代前后速度相对误差均在30%以内;对非连续性累积缺口为0°～180°的平面线性速度场,在附加不同噪声条件下,迭代法均可较好地填补累积缺口在180°以内的平面速度场,且80 km距离圈上缺口处迭代前后速度值误差均能控制在15%以内。说明利用迭代法填补多普勒速度场无回波区,填补效果较好,精度较高,这对改善从多普勒速度场中提取平均散度和平均形变信息的精度有极大的帮助作用。     

一次罕见冰雹天气的多普勒雷达回波分析

运用多普勒雷达的基本反射率(R)、风暴相对径向速度(SRM)、垂直积分液态含水量(VIL)等产品,分析了2004年6月20日华北南部罕见的冰雹大风天气过程。结果表明:这次冰雹大风天气过程主要是由超级单体回波中的中尺度气旋引起的;该过程持续时间比较长的原因是“指状”回波和超级单体回波的依次发生、发展。