考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用

In this study, the North China seismic region was selected as the study area, and evaluation of seismic hazard using the spatial smoothing seismicity model was performed. Firstly, the study area is divided into grids, and some parameters (e.g. b-value, M0, Mu, azimuth and M-L relationship) for each seismotectonic model were assigned. Secondly, using elliptical smoothing based on a seismotectonic background model, the statistical earthquake incidence rate in each grid is successively calculated. Lastly, the relevant ground motion attenuation relationship is chosen to assess seismic hazard of general sites. The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained by using the seismic hazard analysis method based on grid source. This seismicity model simplifies the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially appropriate for those places where seismic tectonics is not yet clearly known. This method can provide valuable references for seismic zonation and seismic safety assessment for significant engineering projects.     

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中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.     

基于能量比与互相关法的地震剖面反射同相轴交互自动拾取研究

为提高地震剖面反射同相轴拾取的精度与效率,结合实际资料详细讨论了能量比与互相关两种自动拾取方法的优缺点,提出对拾取结果进行光滑滤波处理,以消除资料上的随机噪音与风浪干扰等影响。同时讨论了参考种子点在自动拾取算法中的重要性,以及人机交互拾取参考种子点的实现方法。针对复杂界面的反射同相轴,在自动拾取结果的基础上,文中提出以人机交互的方法进行修改拾取。将这些方法综合运用于实际资料,以取得满意的拾取结果。     

侧扫声纳系统姿态参数平滑方法研究

针对侧扫声纳系统姿态参数采样率低于声纳Ping值采样率的问题,采用窗口移动多项式最小二乘平滑方法（Savitzky—Golay平滑法）,对阶梯状姿态数据进行平滑。结果证明了该法的可行性。在选取窗口宽度和多项式阶数时,通过实测数据比较表明,采用窗口为11的二阶多项式平滑后结果与原数据符合程度高。     

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广东省经济发展与滨海环境污染的关系

以环境库兹涅茨理论为基础,通过对广东省1991―2011年的经济发展与废水排放相关数据进行分析,建立了广东省经济增长与废水排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）计量模型。结果表明：1）广东省废水排放总量、生活污水排放量与GDP之间存在较明显的库兹涅兹曲线关系。2）工业废水排放量与GDP之间出现了脱钩效应,工业生产对资源环境压力逐步降低。3）生活污水排放量增长却相对较快,逐渐成为废水排放的主体,致使滨海水体中无机氮与磷酸盐的含量呈现出逐年递增的趋势,滨海地区水质富营养化日趋严重,赤潮发生的频率逐渐增多,直接威胁到滨海地区水体功能的正常发挥。4）从渔获率的年际变化来看：近年来广东省滨海水域生物多样性有所恢复,但形势仍不容乐观。尽管EKC理论表明经济增长最终会改善环境质量,但这是有前提条件的。广东省必须在发展经济的同时,制定合理的经济发展与环境保护政策,建立滨海生态环境保护区,实现区域经济与环境的和谐发展。     

广州市能源消费和经济增长关系

广州市受自然因素制约,能源资源稀缺,而随着经济的快速发展,能源需求增长迅速。以广州市1988―2010年的数据为基础,运用协整理论结合库兹涅茨曲线等方法,分析广州市能源消费和经济增长的关系。研究结果表明：1）经济增长总量是能源消费总量的格兰杰原因,第二产业经济增长是第二产业能源消费的格兰杰原因,他们都处于库兹涅茨曲线倒“U”型假说的前半段;2）第三产业能源消费是第三产业经济增长的格兰杰原因,其库兹涅茨曲线呈现正相关线性关系;3）第一产业能源消费和经济增长不存在长期均衡关系,两指标也不适用于分析库兹涅茨曲线关系。随着广州市经济结构转型升级,受提高能源利用效率的高新技术和节能技术的大量开发运用等其他多方面因素的影响,未来能源消费和经济增长的因果关系会发生改变。因此,不同发展时期应考虑不同产业结构以及技术进步等的发展,制定与之相适应的能源政策。     

温度对洞体应变观测的影响及排除方法研究

本研究将相关性分析的概念扩展到局域化空间,提出局域化的相关性分析（Local-CC)技 术,作为对时间序列做定量化分析的基础;还提出了一套从形变观测数据的原始数据开始,探 讨测值对干扰的响应模型,并整合使用包括傅里叶变换（FFT)平滑滤波、局域化相关性（Locl CC)分析以及线性回归（LR),到最后差分减除在内的完整干扰减除方案,以达到消除温度变 化引起的干扰信息的目的。以昆明地震台的洞体温度记录及洞体应变观测NS向分量为例,使 用傅里叶变换（FFT)滤波器原理抽出较高频率的分量作为处理对象,并使用本文提出的局域 化的相关性算法,按照应变对温度在不同时间点上不同的相关性赋予权重;然后再利用这个权 重做线性回归分析,拟合出应变对温度的响应系数,以排除洞体温度对洞体应变观测的影响。结果显示,本文提出的方案能有效地排除温度对洞体应变观测的影响。     

Statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility curves

This paper describes statistical procedures for developing earthquake damage fragility functions. Although fragility curves abound in earthquake engineering and risk assessment literature, the focus has generally been on the methods for obtaining the damage data (i.e., the analysis of structures), and little emphasis is placed on the process for fitting fragility curves to this data. This paper provides a synthesis of the most commonly used methods for fitting fragility curves and highlights some of their significant limitations. More novel methods are described for parametric fragility curve development (generalized linear models and cumulative link models) and non‐parametric curves (generalized additive model and Gaussian kernel smoothing). An extensive discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each method is provided, as well as examples using both empirical and analytical data. The paper further proposes methods for treating the uncertainty in intensity measure, an issue common with empirical data. Finally, the paper describes approaches for choosing among various fragility models, based on an evaluation of prediction error for a user‐defined loss function. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.