Second-guessing uncertainty: Scenario planning for management of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery

An important task of natural resource management is deciding amongst alternative policy options, including how interventions will affect the dynamics of resource exploitation. Yet predicting the behaviour of natural resource users in complex, changeable systems presents a significant challenge for managers. Scenario planning, which involves thinking creatively about how a socio-ecological system might develop under a set of possible futures, was used to explore uncertainties in the future of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. This exercise stimulated thinking on how key social, economic and environmental conditions that influence fleet behaviour may change in the future, and how these changes might affect the dynamics of fishing effort. Three storylines were explored: an increase in marine protection, growing consumer preference for sustainable seafood, and depletion of tuna stocks. Comparing across several possible future scenarios, a number of critical aspects of fleet behaviour were identified that should be important considerations for fishery managers, but which are currently poorly understood. These included a switch in fishing practices, reallocation of effort in space, investment in new vessels and exit from the fishery. Recommendations for future management interventions in the Indian Ocean were offered, along with suggestions for research needed to reduce management uncertainty.     

油气成藏动力学及其研究进展

成藏动力学是综合利用地质、地球物理、地球化学手段和计算机模拟技术 ,在盆地演化历史中和输导格架下 ,通过能量场演化及其控制的化学动力学、流体动力学和运动学过程分析 ,研究沉积盆地油气形成、演化和运移过程和聚集规律的综合性学科。成藏动力学研究的基础是盆地演化历史和流体输导格架 ,研究的核心是能量场 (包括温度场、压力场、应力场 )演化及其控制的化学动力学和流体动力学过程。 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,成藏动力学研究的进展表现在 :( 1)流体输导系统预测能力的提高 ;( 2 )能量场演化机制及其控制的化学动力学过程和流体流动样式研究的深入 ;( 3)油气成藏机理研究的深化 ;( 4 )计算机模拟技术的改进。在进一步认识与油气成藏密切相关的化学动力学和流体动力学过程和机理的基础上 ,实现盆地温度场、压力场、应力场的耦合和流体流动、能量传递和物质搬运的三维模拟 ,是成藏动力学的重要发展方向。     

一类二阶非线性微分方程解的振动性

本文研究一类二阶非线性微分方程 X+q(t)φ(X,X)+p(t)g(X)h(X)=0的解的振动性。文[1]研究了方程 X+q(t)φ(X,X)+p(t)g (X)X~α=0的解的振动性,而文[2]研究了方程 X+p(t)g(X)h(X)=0的解的振动性。本文所得的结果包含了文[1]的全部结果及文[2]的部份结果。     

超细固体悬浮液进样-电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定土壤中的微量元素

固体进样技术应用于土壤样品测量领域,一直受制于样品粒径的限制,无法应用在配有气动雾化器的分析仪器上。本文系统研究了土壤样品超细粉碎技术,在乙醇介质下,数分钟内将其粉碎至微米级,经此制成的固体悬浮液直接进行电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)测定,可以避免气动雾化器的堵塞。标准物质测定表明,样品粒径为6.8μm时,固体悬浮液进样仍然存在干扰,通过在固体悬浮液中加入少量氢氟酸和硝酸,对固体悬浮液进行改性,减小了固体悬浮液中固体颗粒粒径,从而减少了样品粒径的影响,可用ICP-MS测定土壤中锂铍钒铬镍铜锌铷锶镉铯钡铅等13个微量元素。经国家一级标准物质验证,本方法的最大相对误差在10.5%左右,多数元素的相对误差小于5%,相对标准偏差(RSD)小于5.4%(镉元素除外),满足了DZ/G 0130—2006质量控制要求。     

The geomorphic dynamics and environmental history of an upper deltaic floodplain tract in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

A multi‐proxy approach was used to examine the geomorphic dynamics and environmental history of an upper deltaic ?oodplain tract in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California. Three long cores were collected from the McCormack–Williamson Tract (MWT) and these cores were analyzed for bulk density, loss‐on‐ignition, ?ne (clay and silt) content, Al concentration, magnetic susceptibility, pollen, and charcoal. Radiocarbon dates obtained for the cores were converted into calendar years and an age–depth model was constructed. Long‐term vertical accretion and sedimentation rates were estimated from the age–depth model. Cross‐core relations show that coarse sediment generally accumulates more rapidly and has greater magnetic susceptibility compared to ?ne sediment. Percentage ?ne and LOI data show a strong linear relationship that indicates ?ooding is the primary mechanism for the deposition of particular organic matter on the ?oodplain and that landscape wash load has contributed a highly consistent fraction of persistent organic matter averaging 5·5 per cent to the site. Down‐core grain size pro?les show two hydrological domains in the cores, namely millennial ?ne–coarse ?uctuations superimposed on general up‐core ?ning. Coarse sediment is viewed as channel or near‐channel overbank deposits, whereas ?ne deposits are considered to be distal overbank ?ood deposits. The coarse–?ne ?uctuations are indicative of changing depositional settings as channels migrated laterally across MWT, whereas the upward ?ning trend re?ects a combination of self‐limiting overbank deposition as ?oodplain elevation increased and decreasing competence as sea‐level rise reduced ?ood‐pulse energy slopes. MWT has been cross‐cut and incised numerous times in the past, only to have the channels abandoned and subsequently ?lled by ?ne sediment. The channels around MWT attained their modern con?guration about 4000 years ago. MWT likely came under tidal in?uence at about 2500 cal BP. Wetlands have recently developed on MWT, but they are inorganic sediment dominated. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Near-bankfull floods in an Alpine stream: Effects on the sediment mobility and bedload magnitude

In a mountain environment, the transport of coarse material is a key factor for many fields such as geomorphology, ecology, hazard assessment, and reservoir management. Despite this, there have been only a few field investigations of bedload, in particular using multiple monitoring methods. In this sense, attention has frequently focused on the effects of “high magnitude/low frequency floods” rather than on “ordinary events”. This study aims to analyze the sediment dynamics triggered by three high-frequency floods (recurrence interval “RI” between 1.1 and 1.7 yr) that occurred in the Rio Cordon basin during 2014. The flood events were investigated in terms of both sediment mobility and bedload magnitude. The Rio Cordon is an Alpine basin located in northeastern Italy. The catchment has a surface area of 5 km², ranging between 1763 and 2763 m above sea level. The Rio Cordon flows on an armored streambed layer, with a stable step-pool configuration and large boulders. Since 1986, the basin has been equipped with a permanent station to continuously monitor water discharge and sediment flux. To investigate sediment mobility, 250 PIT-tags were installed in the streambed in 2012. The 2014 floods showed a clear difference in terms of tracer displacement. The near-bankfull events showed equal mobility conditions, with mean travel distance one order of magnitude higher than the below-bankfull event. Furthermore, only the near-bankfull events transported coarse material to the monitoring station. Both events had a peak discharge up to 2.06 m³ s^-1, but the bedload transport rates differed by more than one order of magnitude, proving that under the current supply-limited condition, the bedload appears more related to the sediment supply than to the magnitude of the hydrological features. In this sense, the results demonstrated that near-bankfull events can mobilize large amounts of material for long distances, and that floods of apparently similar magnitude may lead to different sediment dynamics, depending on the type and amount of sediment supply.     

Linear response of galactic haloes to adiabatic gravitational perturbations

We determine the response of a self-similar isothermal stellar system to small adiabatic gravitational perturbations. For odd spherical harmonics the response is identical to the response of the analogous isothermal fluid system. For even spherical harmonics the response can be regarded as an infinite series of wavetrains in log r , implying alternating compression and rarefaction in equal logarithmic radius intervals. Partly because of the oscillatory nature of the solutions, tidal fields from external sources are not strongly amplified by an intervening isothermal stellar system, except at radii ≲10^−3.5 times the satellite radius; at some radii the stellar system can even screen the external tidal field in a manner analogous to Debye screening. As Weinberg has pointed out, individual resonances in a stellar system can strongly amplify external tidal fields over a limited radial range, but we cannot address this possibility because we examine only adiabatic perturbations. We also discuss the application of our method to the halo response caused by the slow growth of an embedded thin disc.     

大河三角洲河口海岸演化机理模型研究:(II)模型构建与实证

本文以z坐标下的三维斜压海洋动力学数值模式为基本模式原型 ,在整理渤海基本数据并诊断计算风生环流和热盐环流作为背景环流场基础上 ,初步建立了渤海海域动力环境数值模式。模式采用了经校正的Bagnold型方程来计算渤海底移质沉积物输运 ,悬移质计算则是取二维深度平均悬移质输运方程和河床变形方程 ,计算含沙量分布以及由悬移物引起的冲淤厚度。利用这种方法建立的沉积物输运模式 ,定量模拟了渤海沿岸和海底的沉积物输运方向和冲淤分布。模拟结果与通过多年实测水深估算获得的渤海海底沉积物的冲淤变化分布相比较 ,两者之间在基本结论上是比较一致的     

“膨胀力”作用下致密砂岩储层石油运聚特征

在致密油成藏动力已有认识的基础上,从力的性质和作用效果的角度,对比分析了推动石油在致密储层中运移的"膨胀力"与常规储层情况下浮力之间的区别。论述了在"膨胀力"作用下,石油在理想致密砂岩模型中的运移模式、运移距离及致密油藏扩张规律。基于以上认识并结合实例,建立模型从动力学的角度分析了致密砂岩中隔、夹层及裂缝对石油运移富集的影响。分析认为:由于致密油与常规储层油藏在运移动力及运移模式上的差别,致密砂岩中隔、夹层将会在一定程度上阻碍石油的运移,造成成藏上物性较好的"空白带";在致密砂岩裂缝型油藏中,与裂缝直接接触物性较好的砂体是最具可能性的石油聚集区带。