再论大光包滑坡特征与形成机制

摘 要 大光包滑坡是汶川地震触发的规模最大的巨型滑坡。滑坡位于安县高川乡、汶川地震发震断裂上盘,滑动距离4.5 km,堆积体宽度2.2km,面积7.8 km2,估算体积7.5亿m3。与地震灾区178处特大滑坡相比,大光包滑坡除了强震触发崩滑灾害具有的震动溃裂、溃滑失稳、超强动力和大规模高速抛射与远程运动等特征之外,其存在一个长度大于1km的长大滑面,是其余滑坡绝无仅有的！作者在去年研究的基础上,又多次到现场调查、测绘并取样分析,初步认为大光包滑坡发生过程为一次性完成,滑带物质组成较为复杂,主体为震旦系（Zd）风化程度较高的泥质灰岩,局部夹泥盆系沙窝子组（Ds）磷矿及其伴生矿。滑坡形成机理主要分为以下3个阶段:即(1)坡体震裂阶段:在强震作用下后缘拉裂边界及上游拉裂边界形成,并与下游侧的岩层层面构成巨大的V型楔形体;(2)滑面碎裂化,摩阻力急剧降低阶段:滑坡下游边界（主控滑动面）滑床被震裂、松弛、剪胀-扩容并碎裂化,产生滚动摩擦效应,导致滑面摩阻力急剧降低;(3) 前部锁固段剪断,高速溃滑阶段:滑体前部滑面上的锁固段在强震持续作用下,产生突发性剪断,从而导致整个巨大的楔形体,如同拉抽屉一样,沿岩层走向高速溃滑而下;（4）震动堆积阶段,滑体冲过黄洞子沟,受到迎面山体的强力阻挡,逆冲爬高500余m后,表部惯性极大的松散岩土体快速折返并震动堆积、荡平,余势不减的碎屑流汇入滑坡扩容抛撒体,向黄洞子沟下游流动1km,止于大偏桥。     

大陆漂移, 板块构造, 地质力学

本文简要地介绍了魏格纳大陆漂移说的主要内容及其提出的依据; 论述了在大陆漂移说的基础上, 由于海洋地质地球物理调查发现了大洋中脊、洋底扩张, 解释了大陆张裂的机制, 并建立了全球板块构造理论, 形成现代地学思想的革命; 李四光在大陆漂移说提出的同时已在积极地探讨和论述大陆地壳水平运动问题, 并结合中国大陆实际, 发展了陆内碰撞变形理论, 即包括全球大陆构造体系在内的地质力学理论和方法。他强调地质力学是一支脚站在地质上, 另一支脚站在力学上来研究地壳运动和变形现象。后来更扩大了其在资源、环境方面的应用。文章对魏格纳大陆漂移说、全球板块构造理论及地质力学三者的关系做了深入探讨, 论述了李四光地质力学理论方法的现代意义、超前意义, 提出要重视和发扬李四光留给中国人民的宝贵遗产, 建议深入学习李四光的著述, 结合地质调查新成果去丰富它和发展它。     

区域成矿与矿田构造--构建成矿构造体系

构造与成矿具有密不可分的动态耦合关系。构造应力场和构造运动控制了成矿作用。不同形式的构造,如断裂、褶皱、韧性剪切带和壳幔构造等,对成矿作用具有不同的控制作用。构造体系具有多级控矿的规律。构造体系与成矿系统的有机结合,构成了成矿构造体系。全球具有多个巨型成矿构造体系,包括环太平详、特提斯一喜马拉雅、古亚洲、大洋脊一大陆裂谷和克拉通等巨型成矿构造体系。成矿构造体系的构建,是区域成矿规律与矿田构造研究的重要发展方向。     

A case study on the influence of THM coupling on the near field safety of a spent fuel repository in sparsely fractured granite

In order to demonstrate the feasibility of geological disposal of spent CANDU fuel in Canada, a safety assessment was performed for a hypothetical repository in the Canadian Shield. The assessment shows that the maximum long term radionuclide release from such repository would meet international criteria for dose rate; however, uncertainties in the assumed evolution of the repository were identified. Such uncertainties could be resolved by the consideration of coupled Thermal-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) processes. In Task A of the DECOVALEX-THMC project, THM models were developed within the framework of the theory of poroelasticity. Such model development was performed in an iterative manner, using experimental data from laboratory and field tests. The models were used to perform near-field simulations of the evolution of the repository in order to address the above-mentioned uncertainties. This paper presents the definition and rationale of task A and the results of the simulations. From a repository safety point of view, the simulations predict that the maximum temperature would be well below the design target of 100°C; however, the stress on the container can marginally exceed the design value of 15 MPa. However, the most important finding from the simulations is that a rock damage zone could form around the emplacement borehole. Such damage zone can extend a few metres from the walls of the emplacement holes, with permeability values that are orders of magnitude higher than the initial values. The damage zone has the potential to increase the radionuclide transport flux from the geosphere; the effect of such an increase should be taken into account in the safety assessment and mitigated if necessary by the provision of sealing systems. Prepared for publication in Environmental Geology. DECOVALEX-THMC Special Issue.     

Modeling of damage,permeability changes and pressure responses during excavation of the TSX tunnel in granitic rock at URL,Canada

This paper presents numerical modeling of excavation-induced damage, permeability changes, and fluid-pressure responses during excavation of a test tunnel associated with the tunnel sealing experiment (TSX) at the Underground Research Laboratory (URL) in Canada. Four different numerical models were applied using a wide range of approaches to model damage and permeability changes in the excavation disturbed zone (EDZ) around the tunnel. Using in situ calibration of model parameters, the modeling could reproduce observed spatial distribution of damage and permeability changes around the tunnel as a combination of disturbance induced by stress redistribution around the tunnel and by the drill-and-blast operation. The modeling showed that stress-induced permeability increase above the tunnel is a result of micro and macrofracturing under high deviatoric (shear) stress, whereas permeability increase alongside the tunnel is a result of opening of existing microfractures under decreased mean stress. The remaining observed fracturing and permeability changes around the periphery of the tunnel were attributed to damage from the drill-and-blast operation. Moreover, a reasonably good agreement was achieved between simulated and observed excavation-induced pressure responses around the TSX tunnel for 1 year following its excavation. The simulations showed that these pressure responses are caused by poroelastic effects as a result of increasing or decreasing mean stress, with corresponding contraction or expansion of the pore volume. The simulation results for pressure evolution were consistent with previous studies, indicating that the observed pressure responses could be captured in a Biot model using a relatively low Biot-Willis’ coefficient, α ≈ 0.2, a porosity of n ≈ 0.007, and a relatively low permeability of k ≈ 2 × 10⁻²² m², which is consistent with the very tight, unfractured granite at the site.     

Diurnal soil water dynamics in the shallow vadose zone (field site of China University of Geosciences,China)

Because of the relatively low soil moisture in arid or semi-arid regions, water vapour movement often predominates in the vadose zone and affects the partitioning of energy among various land surface fluxes. In an outdoor sand bunker experiment, the soil water content at 10 and 30 cm depth were measured at hourly intervals for 2.5 days during October 2004. It was found that the soil moisture reached the daily maximum value (5.9–6.1% at 10 cm and 11.9–13.1% at 30 cm) and minimum value (4.4–4.5% at 10 cm and 10.4–10.8% at 30 cm) at midday (0–1 p.m. for 10 cm and 2–3 p.m. for 30 cm) and before dawn (2–3 a.m. for 10 cm and 4–5 a.m. for 30 cm), respectively. The modified HYDRUS-1D code, which refers to the coupled water, water vapour and heat transport in soil, was used to simulate the moisture and water vapour flow in the soil. The numerical analyses provided insight into the diurnal movement of liquid water and water vapour driven by the gradients of pressure heads and temperatures in the subsurface zone. The simulated temperature and water content were in good agreement with the measured values. The spatial–temporal distribution of liquid water flux, water vapour flux and soil temperature showed a detailed diurnal pattern of soil water dynamics in relatively coarse sand. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Load transfer analysis of rock-socketed drilled shafts by coupled soil resistance

The load distribution and deformation of rock-socketed drilled shafts subjected to axial loads are evaluated by a load transfer method. The emphasis is on quantifying the effect of coupled soil resistance in rock-socketed drilled shafts using 2D elasto-plastic finite element analysis. Slippage and shear-load transfer behavior at the pile–soil interface are investigated by using a user-subroutine interface model (FRIC). It is shown that the coupled soil resistance acts as pile-toe settlement as the shaft resistance is increased to its ultimate limit state. Based on the results obtained, the coupling effect is closely related to the ratio of the pile diameter to soil modulus (D/E_s) and the ratio of total shaft resistance against total applied load (R_s/Q). Through comparison with field case studies, the 2D numerical analysis reasonably estimated load transfer of pile and coupling effect, and thus represents a significant improvement in the prediction of load deflections of drilled shafts.     

How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability?

Accurate prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) seasonal variation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In order to understand the causes of the low accuracy in the current prediction of the A-AM precipitation, this study strives to determine to what extent the ten state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-land climate models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) can capture the two observed major modes of A-AM rainfall variability–which account for 43% of the total interannual variances during the retrospective prediction period of 1981–2001. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming to cooling in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about 1 year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. The first mode has a strong biennial tendency and reflects the Tropical Biennial Oscillation (Meehl in J Clim 6:31–41, 1993). We show that the MME 1-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies captures the first two leading modes of variability with high fidelity in terms of seasonally evolving spatial patterns and year-to-year temporal variations, as well as their relationships with ENSO. The MME shows a potential to capture the precursors of ENSO in the second mode about five seasons prior to the maturation of a strong El Niño. However, the MME underestimates the total variances of the two modes and the biennial tendency of the first mode. The models have difficulties in capturing precipitation over the maritime continent and the Walker-type teleconnection in the decaying phase of ENSO, which may contribute in part to a monsoon “spring prediction barrier” (SPB). The NCEP/CFS model hindcast results show that, as the lead time increases, the fractional variance of the first mode increases, suggesting that the long-lead predictability of A-AM rainfall comes primarily from ENSO predictability. In the CFS model, the correlation skill for the first principal component remains about 0.9 up to 6 months before it drops rapidly, but for the spatial pattern it exhibits a drop across the boreal spring. This study uncovered two surprising findings. First, the coupled models’ MME predictions capture the first two leading modes of precipitation variability better than those captured by the ERA-40 and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets, suggesting that treating the atmosphere as a slave may be inherently unable to simulate summer monsoon rainfall variations in the heavily precipitating regions (Wang et al. in J Clim 17:803–818, 2004). It is recommended that future reanalysis should be carried out with coupled atmosphere and ocean models. Second, While the MME in general better than any individual models, the CFS ensemble hindcast outperforms the MME in terms of the biennial tendency and the amplitude of the anomalies, suggesting that the improved skill of MME prediction is at the expense of overestimating the fractional variance of the leading mode. Other outstanding issues are also discussed.     

基于IPCC AR4耦合模式的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟及未来变化预估

评估了参加政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告(IPCCAR4)的耦合模式对南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟能力。分析了24个模式对1970—1999年南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟效能,并与两套再分析资料ERA-40和NCEP-1进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式的模拟能力具有一定的季节依赖性,冬季模拟能力最好。大多数模式对南极涛动空间结构和时间序列趋势的模拟好于北极涛动。根据Taylor图选出具有较好模拟能力的模式并做集合分析,发现经过选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力。分析SRESA1B情景下的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟、预估结果表明:1970—2099年,南极涛动和北极涛动指数均呈持续上升趋势,北极涛动指数增长略显平稳。相对于1970—1999年、2060—2089年两半球的海平面气压场均呈现极区气压降低、中纬度气压升高的形态,同样表明南、北极涛动在后一时段更强。因此,在气候变暖背景下,南、北极涛动将持续增强,21世纪中期的臭氧恢复可能不会显著影响这种趋势。     

Two-dimensional parametric study of geosynthetic-reinforced column-supported embankments by coupled hydraulic and mechanical modeling

Geosynthetic-reinforced column-supported (GRCS) embankments have been increasingly constructed over soft soil. Current design methods were developed based on different assumptions and simplifications, which lead to great variations among them. Numerical studies have been conducted to improve the understanding of the GRCS embankment system. Most of the past numerical studies were limited to mechanical modeling only (i.e., not coupled with hydraulic modeling), which can be used to evaluate long-term or short-term behavior by using appropriate mechanical properties. However, the generation and dissipation of excess pore water pressure under GRCS embankments during and after construction make their behavior time-dependent. A two-dimensional (2D) parametric study based on coupled hydraulic and mechanical modeling was conducted to study the time-dependent behavior of GRCS embankments under various conditions. Special attention was paid to the influence of several key factors on the performance of the embankments indicated by maximum and differential settlements, tension in the geosynthetic, and degree of consolidation. The investigated key factors include modulus and permeability of the soft soil, modulus and spacing of columns, tensile stiffness of the geosynthetic, and average construction rate. The influence of these factors are compared and rated in terms of the degree of importance in this study.