Forthcoming events

Tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) produce high winds that can generate waves capable of damaging coral reefs. As cyclones frequently pass through northeast Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), it is important to understand how the spatial distribution of reef damage changes over time. However, direct measurements of wave damage, or even wave heights or wind speeds, are rare within the GBR. An important factor in estimating whether cyclone damage was possible is the magnitude and duration of high‐energy wind and waves. Thus, before the spatio‐temporal dynamics of past cyclone damage can be modelled, it is necessary to reconstruct the spread, intensity, and duration of high‐energy conditions during individual cyclones. This was done every hour along the track taken by each of 85 cyclones that passed near the GBR from 1969 to 2003, by implementing a cyclone wind hindcasting model directly within a raster GIS using cyclone data available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Three measures of cyclone energy (maximum wind speed—MAX, duration of gales—GALES, and continuous duration of gales—CGALES) were derived from these data. For three cyclones, where field data documenting actual reef damage from cyclone‐generated waves were available, the predictive ability of each measure was assessed statistically. All three performed better in predicting reef damage at sites surveyed along the high‐energy reef front than those surveyed along the more protected reef back. MAX performed best for cyclone Joy (r ² = 0.5), while CGALES performed best for cyclones Ivor (r ² = 0.23) and Justin (r ² = 0.48). Using thresholds for MAX and GALES obtained via comparison with field data of damage, it was possible to produce a preliminary prediction of the risk of wave damage across the GBR from each of the 85 cyclones. The results suggest that while up to two‐thirds of the GBR was at risk from some damage for 30–50% of the time series (～18 out of 35 years), only scattered areas of the region were at risk more frequently than that.     

Inhibition of larval swimming activity of the coral (Platygyra acuta) by interactive thermal and chemical stresses

This study examined the interactive effects of copper and elevated temperature and subsequent depuration on Platygyra acuta coral larvae. Larval mortality and motility were significantly affected by copper alone (70% and 100% inhibition respectively). Their respective lethal/inhibitory concentration (LC₅₀/IC₅₀) were 10–130% and 86–193% higher than those reported for other larvae. Temperature (ambient, 27 °C and elevated, 30 °C) alone and the combination of temperature and copper did not significantly affect both endpoints. This study provides the first quantitative data on depuration effect on resumption of larval motility after copper exposure, although no sign of larval recovery was observed. These findings suggest that the effects of copper pollution outweigh the thermal tolerance of coral larvae. High LC₅₀ and IC₅₀ recorded may be unique for corals from marginal reefs like Hong Kong which have already been exposed to high levels of copper pollution.     

Navigating climate crises in the Great Barrier Reef

A dramatic escalation of extreme climate events is challenging the capacity of environmental governance regimes to sustain and improve ecosystem outcomes. It has been argued that actors within adaptive governance regimes can help to steer environmental systems toward sustainability in times of crisis. Yet there is little empirical evidence of how acute climate crises are navigated by actors operating within adaptive governance regimes, and the factors that influence their responses. Here, we qualitatively assessed the actions key governance actors took in response to back-to-back mass coral bleaching – an extreme climate event – of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017, and explored their perceptions of barriers and catalysts to these responses. This research was, in part, a product of collaboration and knowledge co-production with Great Barrier Reef governance actors aimed at improving responses to climate crises in the region. We found five major categories of activity that actors engaged with in the wake of recurrent mass coral bleaching: assessing the scale and extent of bleaching, sharing information, communicating bleaching to the public, building local resilience, and addressing global threats. These actions were both catalyzed and hindered by a range of factors that fall within different domains of adaptive capacity; such as assets, social organization, and agency. We discuss the implications of our findings as they relate to existing research on adaptive capacity and adaptive governance. We conclude by coalescing insights from our interviews and a participant engagement process to highlight four key ways in which the ability of governance actors, and the Great Barrier Reef governance regime more broadly, can be better prepared for, and more effectively respond to extreme climate events. Our research provides empirical insight into how crises are experienced by governance actors in a large-scale environmental system, potentially providing lessons for similar systems across the globe.     

Responding to change: Using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampening exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers

Environmental change often requires societies to adapt. In some instances, these adaptations can create feedbacks that amplify the change. Alternatively, other adaptations may dampen the change. We used semi-structured interviews with 240 fishers from nine Tanzanian coastal communities to explore responses to four hypothetical scenarios of increasingly severe declines in their average catch (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%). Overall, a higher proportion of fishers said they would respond to decline using amplifying adaptations (such as fishing harder) than dampening adaptations (such as reducing effort), particularly in the scenarios with lower levels of decline. We used a redundancy analysis to explore whether certain types of responses were related to the fishers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Fishers that would employ amplifying responses had greater economic wealth but lacked options. Fishers who would adopt dampening responses possessed characteristics associated with having livelihood options. Fishers who would adopt neither amplifying nor dampening responses were less likely to belong to community groups and sold the largest proportion of their catch. This study provides novel contributions by differentiating aspects of adaptive capacity that will amplify versus dampen environmental change and by highlighting what the resource users’ themselves say regarding responding to environmental change. Although direct policy application is limited by the study's hypothetical scenario nature, it provides a good beginning to incorporating resource users’ voices into such policy discussions.     

Spatial patterns of chemical contamination (metals, PAHs, PCBs, PCDDs/PCDFS) in sediments of a non-industrialized but densely populated coral atoll/small island state (Bermuda)

There is a recognized dearth of standard environmental quality data in the wider Caribbean area, especially on coral atolls/small island states. Extensive surveys of sediment contamination (n = 109 samples) in Bermuda revealed a wide spectrum of environmental quality. Zinc and especially copper levels were elevated at some locations, associated with boating (antifouling paints and boatyard discharges). Mercury contamination was surprisingly prevalent, with total levels as high as 12 mg kg⁻¹ DW, although methyl mercury levels were quite low. PAH, PCB and PCDD/PCDF contamination was detected a several hotspots associated with road run-off, a marine landfill, and a former US Naval annexe. NOAA sediment quality guidelines were exceeded at several locations, indicating biological effects are possible, or at some locations probable. Overall, and despite lack of industrialization, anthropogenic chemicals in sediments of the atoll presented a risk to benthic biodiversity at a number of hotspots suggesting a need for sediment management strategies.     

Proximate environmental drivers of coral communities at Palmyra Atoll: establishing baselines prior to removing a WWII military causeway

A management proposal aims to partly remove a WWII military causeway at Palmyra Atoll to improve lagoon water circulation and alleviate sedimentation stress on the southeast backreef, an area of high coral cover and diversity. This action could result in a shift in sedimentation across reef sites. To provide management advice, we quantified the proximate environmental factors driving scleractinian coral cover and community patterns at Palmyra. The proportion of fine sedimentation was the optimal predictor of coral cover and changes in community structure, explaining 23.7% and 24.7% of the variation between sites, respectively. Scleractinian coral cover was negatively correlated with increases in fine sedimentation. Removing the causeway could negatively affect the Montipora corals that dominate the western reef terrace, as this genus was negatively correlated with levels of fine sedimentation. The tolerance limits of corals, and sediment re-distribution patterns, should be determined prior to complete removal of the causeway.     

A large excess of 210Po in the overlying water of the Zhubi Coral Reef flat, in the South China Sea

The temporal variability of ²¹⁰Po and ²¹⁰Pb was examined in the overlying water of the Zhubi Coral Reef flat to detect nutrient-like behavior of ²¹⁰Po. Different mechanisms influencing their geochemical behaviors were observed. Excess ²¹⁰Po relative to ²¹⁰Pb revealed an additional input of ²¹⁰Po other than in situ production from ²¹⁰Pb. The ²¹⁰Po input comes from the reef flat sediment through diffusion. The diffusion contributes 62% of the total ²¹⁰Po. This diffusion of ²¹⁰Po directly highlights its nutrient-like behavior. No input, but the slight removal, of ²¹⁰Pb was observed. Fractionation factors indicate that particulate matter prefers to adsorb ²¹⁰Po rather than ²¹⁰Pb. In combination with particulate composition, ²¹⁰Po diffusion was closely related to organic matter. These results reveal that ²¹⁰Po might be a potential tracer for quantifying nutrient recycling in the Coral Reef system.     

The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO₂ levels exceeded ∼320 ppm. When CO₂ levels reached ∼340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of ∼387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO₂ levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO₂ levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO₂ emissions could trigger the Earth’s sixth mass extinction.     

汉三角地区经济发展分析与对策

“汉三角”位于湖北、湖南、江西3省交界处的精华地带,属于中部发展中地区,具有区位与交通条件优越、自然资源丰富、旅游资源品种多样、人文气息浓厚等多种优势,是珠三角、长三角地区产业转移的前沿地区。同时伴随着中部崛起战略的提出,在中部地区营造汉三角经济增长极,通过发挥其巨大潜力,不仅将完善我国区域经济空间布局,而且对促进中部崛起具有十分重要的战略意义。文中对汉三角地区经济发展进行了详尽分析,并提出汉三角区域经济发展战略措施。