Statistical performances of various deterministic and stochastic models for rainfall series disaggregation

This paper compares the performance of seven disaggregation models, based on various approaches and/or concepts, for the generation of 10-min time step rainfall series from hourly rainfall series. The so-called constant disaggregation model and a linear model based on the external temporal pattern of rainfall are first considered. The other models are stochastic: the first ones are based on a given probability density function applying for the 10-min rainfall amounts of the hour to disaggregate. This probability density function is either uniform or derived from the external temporal pattern of rainfall. The other stochastic models are scaling models using canonical or microcanonical multiplicative random cascades. The comparison of the models is based on their ability to reproduce some important statistical characteristics of the observed time series: variance, skewness coefficient, wet/dry properties of 10-min rainfall amounts; rainfall amounts quantiles for different return periods; autocorrelation of 10-min rainfall amounts. A continuous hydrological simulation is next applied to produce for each generated rainfall series a continuous discharge series used afterwards for a retention design. The ability of the different disaggregation models to produce rainfall time series resulting in the same retention design than the one obtained with the observed rainfall series is finally analysed. Deterministic models as well as simpler stochastic models have rather bad performances when compared to the others. Because it is non-conservative, the model based on a microcanonical random cascade performs also very poorly. It significantly overestimates all studied statistics. Models based on microcanonical random cascades achieve the best performance. They perform reasonably well for the reproduction of rainfall statistics and almost perfectly for the reproduction of runoff and storage design variables. Results finally highlight the interest of including in the disaggregation scheme information related to the external temporal pattern of rainfall.     

对2005年9月初鄂东一次连续大暴雨的诊断分析

应用湖北省鄂州、武(自动站雨量资料,常规气象资料,以及T213格点分析资料,对2005年9月初“泰利”热带低压引起的鄂东连续大暴雨天气过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:热带低压北侧东南风与东北风之间的倒槽以及倒槽附近的偏东风低空急流是造成大暴雨的主要影响系统;鄂东区域湿层平均温度露点差变化与降雨强弱变化基本一致;武(等观测站中、低层△θse(500-850)零线过境前后出现降雨峰值;鄂东连续大暴雨期间,地面冷空气较为活跃。     

深地震反射剖面数据子库

深地震反射剖面数据子库（简称SB1）,系国土资源部深部地球物理探测数据库下属子库之一。经过需求分析,数据标准格式设计,采用Microsoft Access97作为开发平台的深地震反射剖面数据子库,具备关系型数据库固有的一切功能。SB1由用户查询,维护管理和报表打印等3个子系统组成。SB1收录了1996年以前,即原地质矿产部和国土资源部地球物理工作者执行深部地质计划和前沿科技计划等专项计划获得的大量深地震反射剖面调查原始记录,处理成果与解释成果。经调研数据分布和保存状况,依照“深地震反射剖面数据入库技术规定”完成了深地震反射剖面数据收集,整理及登录。迄今为止,SB1共收录国土资源部深地震反射资料累计测线19条,剖面长度859km与入库原始记录数据量35.8GB;原始记录,数据处理等入库数据记录格式皆统一采用地震勘探专业通用的SEG－Y格式;并采用通用的刻录格式ISO9660共刻录数据光盘30张。SB1管理系统的库文件及其用户指南,管理员手册,系统盘说明等文档也已刻录成系统光盘,为数据共享以及其它应用提供了方便条件。     

用奇异函数解两种等截面、等跨连续梁

本文应用奇异函数求解有均布载荷作用或有集中力作用于跨中的等截面等跨连续梁,得到通解矩阵方程,计算过程远较传统方法简捷,尤其在格式上便于进行电算。     

斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的特征波动 Ⅱ:谱函数

“斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的特征波动Ⅰ谱点分布”一文中分析了斜压切变基流中横波型扰动的谱点分布，这里又对其谱函数进行了分析讨论。结果表明当基流在垂直方向存在切变时，重力惯性波与涡旋波的谱函数在垂直方向上均可出现临界层，临界层的高度随频率σ而变化，即重力惯性波与涡旋波都存在连续谱，但涡旋波与重力惯性波连续谱的结构却不同；对天气尺度扰动，两支重力惯性波和1支涡旋波的连续谱不重叠，此时每支波动仅有1个临界层；而对次天气尺度的扰动，重力惯性波与涡旋波的连续谱区会发生重叠，在连续谱的重叠区，重力惯性波仍只有1个临界层，但涡旋波则可以有2个或3个临界层。无论是涡旋波还是重力惯性波其连续谱的波包随时间都是衰减的，但涡旋波波包比重力惯性波波包衰减得慢。     

连续形变观测的异常综合指数SAD

主要介绍了连续形变异常信息的综合指数SAD值的有关研究。在连续形变观测单项异常分析方法和参量研究的基础上，异常综合指数SAD较全面地综合了多种前兆参量和方法及同一测点的多台仪器观测信息，并顾及了不同台站之间的不同观测情况，所获得的结果较真实，更具可信度。可作为判定台站连续形变观测综合异常程度的判定值。此外，还对华北及川滇地区几次强震前SAD值的变化进行了分析。结果表明，强震前半年时段,地区的连续形变观测点的SAD值会有一个显增高（SAD值从平时的0．1－0．3的变化范围，增高到0．5以上）的前兆过程。特别是震中及邻近地区100多公里范围内的测点，SAD值出现显的高值异常（达0．6以上），未来强震则发生在SAD值在0．6以上的分布地区。异常综合指数SAD值反映了监测区内与强震有关的连续形变前兆性异常程度和危险程度，可用于对未来强震的预测。但需要有合理的观测布局及一定的观测密度作为前提。     

应用遥感技术进行森林资源监测方法的研究

森林资源有较强的动态性,监测技术的改进具有重要的生产意义。采用遥感技术,地理信息系统技术与森林连续清查技术相结合的方法实施森林资源监测具有极大的潜力。通过在松江河进行的研究,证明了这种方法的可行性和优越性。 文章探讨了使用新方法的关键技术环节,提供了实施监测的实际结果,指出了在我国北方国有林区推广的前景。与传统方法相比,新方法提供了图面资料,减少地面工作量50％,降低经费20％。     

Experimental examination of the possible influence of the 1.87 Å line emission on the fine structure of the lower ionosphere ionization

Summary From the theoretical investigation ofLetfus andApostolov (1974) it follows that under flare conditions the intensive X-ray emission lines in the 1–8 Å range have an insignificant contribution to the ionization state of the lower ionosphere in comparison with the enhanced emission of the continuum. This result is experimentally confirmed by direct comparison of the intensity variations of the emission line 1.87 Å (Fe XXV) during the solar flare of 25 July 1967 measured onboard of the OSO III satellite with simultaneous ground observations of the ionization state variations of the lower ionosphere made by the A3 method.     

电导率分层连续变化的水平层的大地电磁正演

用有限单元法进行电导率分层连续变化水平层的大地电磁正演计算，与解析法的计算结果进行对比，两者非常符合．算例表明，地表浅部岩层电导率的不均匀性对大地电磁测深曲线的高频段有较大影响．