Governing fisheries as complex adaptive systems

Fisheries are complex human-in-nature systems. The conventional approach to fisheries systems has been to treat them as predictable and controllable. As complex systems they are neither of the two and have to be approached differently. Complex systems often exhibit the capacity to self-organize or adapt, even without outside influence. If this is true of fisheries, it should lead to a radically different approach to management of fisheries systems that places much emphasis on enabling self-organization, learning and adaptation. Conceptual and practical frameworks for enabling activities are needed.     

Differences in causal reasoning about resource dynamics and consequences for the participatory debate on North Sea fisheries

Fishermen, scientists, policy makers, and staff of environmental NGOs (ENGOs) have significantly different understandings of the processes that determine developments in fish stocks. These perception differences hinder the participatory debate on why fish stocks change and which management measures are effective. In this study, differences in causal reasoning about processes between fishermen, policy makers, ENGO-staff, and scientists were examined, regarding four case studies within the management of the fishery on North Sea plaice. First, it appeared that all parties, besides scientists, had difficulty reasoning about long-term effects because of comprehension problems with stock dynamics, and because of short-term economical interests. Second, there were differences in how parties deal with natural variation and interconnectedness of natural and anthropogenic influences. Stock assessment scientists work with single-species models, reducing complexity by using assumptions that rule out variation, in order to inform policy makers about the effect of one isolated management measure. Fishermen on the other hand, relying on information from their daily lives at sea, emphasize complexity and interconnectedness, and the impact of the ever-changing and unpredictable nature. ENGO-staff appeared reluctant to reason about single species and broaden the debate to the ecosystem-level, while emphasizing the effect of man. As a consequence of the diverging perceptions, much time in multi-stakeholder settings is lost on repetitive discussions, mainly on the relative importance of 'nature' versus 'man'. No wonder that policy makers feel lost, and experience processes as very complex. Concluding, to handle these perception differences, there is need for a directive process coordinator, and a more creative informative role for fisheries scientists. Together with all participants, they should map all expectancies and lines of reasoning at the beginning of the debate. This scheme can be relied on during subsequent meetings, in which perceptions can adequately be positioned.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000223

By applying the ‘theory of synchronization’ from the science of complexity to studying the regional regularity of ore formation within the Nanling region of southern China, a characteristic targetpattern regional ore zonality has been discovered. During the early and late Yanshanian epoch (corresponding respectively to the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods), two centers of ore formation emerged successively in the Nanling region; the former is mainly for rare metals (W, Sn,Mo, Bi, Nb) and one rare-earth element (La) and was generated in the Jurassic period; whereas the latter is mainly for base metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Sb, Hg), noble metals (Au, Ag), and one radioactive element (U) and was generated in the Cretaceous period. Centers of ore formation were brought about by interface dynamics respectively at the Qitianling and Jiuyishan districts in southernHunan province. The characteristic giant nonlinear target-pattern regional ore zonality was generated by spatio-temporal synchronization process of the Nanling complex metallogenic system. It induced the collective dynamics and cooperative behavior of the system and displayed the configuration of the regional ore zonality. Then dynamical clustering transformed the configuration into rudimentary ordered coherent structures. Phase dynamics eventually defined the spatio-temporal structures of the target-pattern regional ore zonality and determined their localization and distribution. A new methodology for revealing regional ore zonality is developed, which will encourage further investigation of the formation of deep-seated ore resources and the onset of large-scale mineralization.     

Above the treetops: nature, history and the limits to philosophical naturalism

This paper suggests that the idea of “nature” remains a thematic leitmotif within interdisciplinary debates because it provides a potential bridge between the natural sciences, the social sciences and the humanities. Yet the development of new kinds of interdisciplinary insights into nature-society relations risks a renewed form of philosophical naturalism within which the epistemological tensions between bio-physical and social domains become blurred. In the fields of architecture, planning and urban studies, for example, we find instances where the idea of nature has mutated into a form of “neo-organicism” in which the ideological and historical context for contrasting ideas of nature remain obscured. If we re-examine our understanding of nature, however, drawing on recent insights in ecology, evolutionary biology and other scientific developments we uncover new possibilities for an interdisciplinary exchange of ideas that may avoid the crude determinisms of the past.     

A new tool for modeling dune field evolution based on an accessible, GUI version of the Werner dune model

Research into aeolian dune form and dynamics has benefited from simple and abstract cellular automata computer models. Many of these models are based upon a seminal framework proposed by Werner (1995). Unfortunately, most versions of this model are not publicly available or are not provided in a format that promotes widespread use. In our view, this hinders progress in linking model simulations to empirical data (and vice versa). To this end, we introduce an accessible, graphical user interface (GUI) version of the Werner model. The novelty of this contribution is that it provides a simple interface and detailed instructions that encourage widespread use and extension of the Werner dune model for research and training purposes. By lowering barriers for researchers to develop and test hypotheses about aeolian dune and dune field patterns, this release addresses recent calls to improve access to earth surface models.     

垂直向地震作用对节理岩体失稳破坏的影响

基于线弹性断裂力学理论分析了垂直向地震作用对节理岩体地震动力破坏的影响。在仅考虑峰值时,最不利的单向地震动加速度方向是水平倾向坡外,双向则依据破裂机制是拉剪或压剪,加速度分别是水平倾向坡外与向下或向上的组合。地震动的幅值、作用方向及双向地震动的组合都可使岩体的破坏机制发生转化,并且是突变的、不可逆的。较低峰值的双向地震动产生的应力强度因子可能大于较高峰值的单向地震动所产生的应力强度应子。在岩体节理分布特征和静态应力场一定的初始条件下,第一个导致岩体中产生破裂的地震动加速度幅值及其方向的组合唯一地决定了岩体不可逆破坏发展的方向、机制及最终的破坏特征,其复杂性远大于静力作用时的情况。对岩体地震动力破坏问题的认识应充分考虑垂直向地震动的重要影响。     

玛沁—兰州—靖边剖面壳幔复杂性的研究

利用波的瞬时特性和波列长度参数量，给出一种地震波形复杂性系数的计算方法，该方法呆以用于描述研究区介质的复杂性，处理了中国地震局物探中心于1999年7月实施的玛沁－兰州－靖边地震测深剖面，得到了该剖莫霍界面复杂性系数分布图，结果表明沿剖面的不同构造单元。莫霍界面的复杂性有较大差异，复杂性系数分布沿剖面存在两个明显的变化特征，在该剖面的玛沁裂断和海原地地震的下方，莫霍界面的复杂性系数明显大于沿剖面的其它位置，对穿过各个构造单元的PmP波形做了频频分析，在玛沁断裂和海原地震的下方，频谱的优势频率范围明显较其它位置宽并且出现多峰值。     

Multi-scale entropy analysis of Mississippi River flow

Multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis was applied to the long-term (131 years) daily flow rates (Q) of the Mississippi River (MR) to investigate possible change in the complexity of the MR system due to human activities since 1940s. Unlike traditional entropy-based method that calculates entropy at only one single scale, the MSE analysis provided entropies over multiple time scales and thus accounts for multi-scale structures embedded in time series. It is found that the sample entropy (S _E) for Q of the MR and its two components, overland flow (OF) and base flow (BF), generally increase as time scale increases. More importantly, it is found that there have been entropy decreases in Q, OF, and BF over large time scales. In other words, the MR may have been losing its complexity since 1940s. We explain that the possible loss in the complexity of the MR system may be due to the major changes in land use and land cover and soil conservation practices in the MR basin since 1940s.     

地震时空丛集的多重分形研究

为探索大地震发生的可预测性,应用分形理论并根据标准数盒子的数值计算方法,研究了华北地区历史地震和唐山地区地震活动的空间分布特征,估算了地震活动能量的分维值并研究了其多重分形谱的几何结构．初步结果显示出大地震发生前,广义维值有明显的下降过程,分形谱ｆ（α）结构有右偏现象．在低于上述时空层次的唐山地区,孕震系统也有类似特征出现．这些异常现象揭示出孕震动力系统的物理机理和激变前的某些不稳定性．     

Governing large-scale marine commons: Contextual challenges in the Coral Triangle

Environment and development agendas are increasingly being characterised by regional-scale initiatives. This trend is in part motivated by recognition of the need to account for global drivers of change (e.g., climate change, migration, and globalisation), the aspirations of achieving large-scale ecological goals (such as maintaining ecosystem processes), and reconciling potentially conflicting priorities in multi-use planning. However, regional-scale governance is challenging and there is little theoretical guidance or empirical evidence to suggest how it can be achieved. This paper uses the Institutional Analysis and Development framework to highlight the diverse contextual factors that challenge governance of a large-scale marine common, using an example of the Coral Triangle Initiative. The analysis points to the need for a critical, reflexive approach to the Coral Triangle Initiative if it is to effectively navigate diverse contexts and reconcile multiple objectives in the region. Recognising the heterogeneous, multi-scale and interlinked nature of large-scale marine systems is critical. Coping with contextual complexity will require innovative approaches that strive to be inclusive of varied perspectives and actors, enable and support effective collective-choice arrangements at lower levels of organisation, and organise and link diverse institutional arrangements at multiple scales. Large-scale marine governance will also involve a great deal of experimentation and regular adjustments to governance arrangements to account for the dynamic nature of regional commons.