基于GDELT新闻数据的冲突强度定量表达及冲突事件检测研究

全球范围内各种冲突经常发生,及时分析各种冲突关系并监测其变化,提前干预、实施人道主义救援,可以有效避免冲突的爆发与升级。冲突事件通常被各种新闻媒体及时报道,并被记录于新闻数据库中。提取新闻数据中的冲突事件信息并量化冲突强度,从而分析国家冲突强度的变化是一种可行思路。GDELT实时监测着不同来源的新闻,自动提取新闻中的事件与事件属性信息,并将事件总体划分为冲突与合作2种类型。本文以GDELT为数据源,综合考虑事件数量、事件影响性、事件关注度多个因素,针对不同空间研究尺度提出了一种利用全球冲突指数与局部冲突指数对冲突强度定量表达的方法。在全球尺度上,计算全球各国全球冲突指数衡量国家冲突强度,分析全球国家冲突强度空间分布规律。在国家尺度上,计算局部冲突指数衡量一个国家的冲突强度变化情况,并在冲突强度定量表达的基础上,研究一种基于距离的时间序列冲突检测方法检测冲突事件的发生。研究发现：① 冲突强度高的国家主要集中在非洲和中东地区,全球冲突强度在空间上存在明显的集聚现象;② 国家局部冲突指数的突增通常对应于一些冲突事件的发生,使用本文的冲突检测方法可以有效地及时检测这种突增现象,并能为冲突预警提供支持。本文的研究成果可以为国际冲突关系分析,以及国际救援组织的决策提供参考。     

《中国沿海航行里程表》编制的新方法

重点介绍《中国沿海航行里程表》的编制思路、编制过程,通过引入关键点,探讨了港间里程优化统计的新途径,提出了一套编制《中国沿海航行里程表》新的方法。     

中国沿海部分海域麻痹性贝毒研究

采用美国分析化学家协会推荐的小白鼠生物检测法,对产于大连、深圳、广西北海和福建厦门海域的贝类进行麻痹性贝毒检测,选取部分有毒样品进行高效液相色谱毒素成分分析。小白鼠生物检测法检测结果表明,样品消化腺毒素含量为0—25.3MU/g,剔除消化腺的其他贝类软组织均没有检测到PSP的存在。消化腺和其他软组织的毒力加权平均值为0—2.6MU/g,低于联合国粮农组织制定的贝类安全食用标准的限定值4MU/g。大连海域染毒样品的检出率为50%,在四个海域中最高,福建海域检出率则最低。高效液相色谱毒素成分分析结果表明,深圳和广西北海海域贝类所含PSP成分相似,包含有C毒素(C1/2),GTX毒素(GTX1—4)和STX,而大连海域贝类含有的毒素组分与前两者有较大差异,且随贝类采集的不同时期而变化。     

Impact of Estuarine Outflow on Coastal Upwelling

A two-dimensional numerical model is developed facilitating the locationwise study of coastal upwelling. The coastal rigid boundary in the model is replaced with an open boundary to understand the dynamical response of the coastal ocean in the presence of an estuary. The model is applied to the east coast of India in a plane perpendicular to the coast of Kakinada where the Godavari river joins the Bay of Bengal. The model is driven, starting from a state of rest, by the combined effect of the wind stress forcing and the freshwater discharge from the estuary. Two numerical experiments were conducted to study the effect of the variation in the freshwater discharge on upwelling. It is found that the freshwater discharge from the Godavari estuary suppresses the upwelling off Kakinada.     

The European Atlas of the Seas: Relating Natural and Socio-Economic Elements of Coastal and Marine Environments in the European Union

The European Atlas of the Seas is a web-based information system aimed at the general public, but it is also capable of supporting selected nonspecialist professionals in addressing environmental issues, human activities, and policies related to the coast and sea. It includes a collection of maps and associated fact sheets based on data originating primarily from the European Commission and its agencies, which present a snapshot of key natural and socio-economic elements of the coastal and marine regions of the European Union. It provides a suite of basic instruments for map analysis and data combination to derive ad hoc maritime indicators.     

Effects of DEM Resolution on Modeling Coastal Flood Vulnerability

Abstract

This article examines whether Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution affects the accuracy of predicted coastal inundation extent using LISFLOOD-FP, with application to a sandy coastline in New Jersey. DEMs with resolution ranging from 10 to 100 m were created using coastal elevation data from NOAA, using the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model was developed in LISFLOOD-FP using each DEM, all of which were calibrated and validated against an observed 24-h tidal cycle and used to simulate a 1.5 m storm surge. While differences in predicted inundated area from all models were within 1.0%, model performance and computational time worsened and decreased with coarser DEM resolution, respectively. This implied that using a structured grid model for modeling coastal flood vulnerability is based on two trade-offs: high DEM resolution coupled with computational intensity, but higher precision in model predictions, and vice versa. Furthermore, water depth predictions from all DEMs were consistent. Using an integrated numerical modeling and GIS approach, a two-scale modeling strategy, where a coarse DEM is used to predict water levels for projection onto a fine DEM was found to be an effective, and computationally efficient approach for obtaining reliable estimates of coastal inundation extent.     

基于遥感和GIS的海岸带水域生态景观格局演变研究——以杭州湾北岸上海市段为例

以杭州湾北岸上海市段为例,利用谱间关系法从多时相遥感影像中提取出1992年、2001年和2008年的水域信息,通过水域斑块数量、面积、密度、形状、分维数和景观动态度等分析其动态变化; 利用GIS空间分析方法绘制了水域密度的空间分布图.结果显示,由于受人类活动的干扰,16 a来杭州湾北岸上海段水域景观格局发生了显著变化,...     

南黄海悬浮体的垂直分布特性及其指示意义

重点研究了南黄海典型断面的悬浮体垂直分布特性及其指示意义。结果表明:四季南海黄海北部断面悬浮体分布的共同特征是西高东低,冬、春季鲁北沿岸流携带悬浮体向南输运和黄海暖流北上是南黄海与北黄海进行物质交换的重要方式和途径;夏半年南黄海中部断面深水域存在的表层云团状悬浮体高值区或"中层悬浮体最大值"现象与该海域的生物活动具有密切的联系;冬、春季苏北浅滩外侧海域近岸区的悬浮体含量显著高于夏、秋季,且冬半年近岸区的悬浮体具有向外海输运的趋势;长江口东北部断面各季节均存在2个悬浮体高值区,其中位于断面西部近岸海域的高值区与长江冲淡水(夏季)或苏北沿岸水(冬季)的影响有关,位于断面东部深水域处的悬浮体高值区是黄海西部沿岸流物质输运的结果,并与济州岛西南部海域的泥质区总体相对应,黄海与东海的物质交换过程主要通过夏季长江冲淡水东北向扩展与冬半年黄海西部沿岸流南下和黄海暖流北上进行。另外,水体层化和陆架锋也显著影响着南黄海悬浮体的垂直分布状况,锋面是控制夏季悬浮体向外海深水区输运的主要物理机制。     

Late Quaternary in a South Atlantic estuarine system: Stratigraphic and paleontologic indicators of coastal evolution

The decisive influence of Late Quaternary sea level changes on the geological evolution of the coastal plain and adjacent continental shelf around the world has long been recognized. Coastal environments evolve actively during transgressive–regressive cycles whose development depends on sea level and sediment supply variations. The interaction of these variables was key to the current morphological and sedimentological configuration of coastal regions. Particularly, the estuarine system of Bahía Blanca (Argentina) presents various types of deposits and marine fossil accumulations, such as paleochannels in the subbottom, sand-shell ridges and extensive layers with fossils in life position. These features are important geological indicators, because its analysis allows us to define different paleoenvironmental conditions that prevailed during the coastal evolutionary process.