GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析

GRAPES是中国新一代数值天气预报模式。使用GRAPES中尺度模式产品和常规观测资料,分析检验了2005、2006年汛期发生在长江流域的11次主要降水天气过程,得到:GRAPES模式对于长江流域的预报,无论是降水、天气形势还是物理量都有比较强的预报能力;GRAPES模式对级别较大的降水预报容易出现漏报,而不易出现空报,对于10mm以下的雨区预报比较准确,而对于大于50mm的雨区预报,尤其是大于100mm的降水中心存在较大的偏差;对于西太平洋副热带高压的预报比实际情况偏南、偏东;对于水汽通量散度的预报与实际情况比较吻合。     

珠江口咸潮入侵分析与经验模型——以磨刀门水道为例

收集了2004-2006年珠江口磨刀门水道咸潮发生时测站(1~7)逐日定时观测的的含氯度、水位与流量数据,分析了各监测站含氯度与水位的日变化与年变化,导出了咸潮演变各过程中,含氯度与径流、潮流、河口地形等的关系式,建立了珠江口地区磨刀门水道咸潮入侵的经验模型。据此,模拟了2006年1月12日的磨刀门地区的咸潮入侵态势,经过和沿途各观测点验证发现与实测数据非常吻合。以含氯度等于250mg/L(饮用水的含氯度最大值)的点作为咸潮入侵的最远点,用简化修改后的盐度模拟模型计算了磨刀门咸潮入侵最大距离,并根据2006年1月12~20日的河口含氯度与最近的上游天河站的径流量实测数据计算出相应的咸潮入侵最大距离。研究表明,在河流枯水期(珠江河口通常是12月至翌年3月),只要获得当天河口的含氯度和上游测站的径流量数据,就能利用此经验模型估算出河流各点的含氯度,作出盐度模拟图,并估算出相应的咸潮入侵最大距离。     

珠江三角洲近期水沙分配的变化及其影响与对策

近20多年，珠江三角洲西江与北江的水沙分配发生了重大变化，相当于增多了一条北江的水量和沙量向东输送，导致珠江三角洲腹心地区洪峰水位异常壅高，河道由淤转冲，口门水域面积缩小，滩涂面积扩展，伶仃洋尤其是西岸的淤积加速，对港口和航道有较大影响。     

Application of Two Turbulence Closure Schemes in the Modelling of Tidal Currents and Salinity in the Hooghly Estuary

This paper has two purposes. The first is to study the circulation and salinity in Hooghly Estuary, along the east coast of India and the second is to compare the performance of two turbulence closure schemes by modelling it. A breadth averaged numerical model using a sigma co-ordinate system in the vertical is briefly described. Vertical diffusion of momentum and salt are parameterized by a simple first-order turbulent closure or by a one equation model for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which uses a specified mixing length. The results are compared with the available neap and spring tide observations along the estuary for both low and high discharge periods.The computed elevations and currents are in reasonable agreement with the observations showing no major differences in vertical current profiles by both the turbulent schemes. However, there is a slight under-prediction of bottom currents. The salinity profiles predicted by TKE model show better matching with observations. Statistical tests are also conducted to study the comparative performance of the turbulent closure schemes. The maintenance of two layer structure in residual currents and salt variability are also studied by using the model.     

人类活动对海洋生态系统影响的空间量化评价——以莱州湾海域为例

本文针对海域管理中难以量化人类活动对海洋生态系统影响的问题,提出人海关系空间量化模型,通过完善概念模型、构建指标体系、确定权重及标准,最终利用作用强度和位置关系量化人类活动对海洋生态系统的影响,数值在0—1之间,等分为四个影响程度,由弱到强依次为微弱、中等、强烈和极强,并将该模型和量化方法应用于莱州湾海域。研究结果表明:整个莱州湾受人类活动的综合影响均值为0.425,处于中等影响程度;其中污水排放、围填海工程及港口航运是对莱州湾生态系统影响比较强烈的人类活动;研究海域中40%受到人类活动的强烈影响,44%为中等影响,16%为微弱影响。空间量化分析显示,人类活动对莱州湾近岸海域的综合影响比邻近外海强烈,其中影响较强烈的区域出现在西南近岸海区,而影响较微弱的海区则为莱州湾北部外海。该方法空间量化结果与莱州湾实际情况相符,说明人海关系空间量化模型适合定量化评估人类活动对该海域生态系统的影响,可为"山东半岛蓝色经济区"海域管理提供技术支持。     

Grain size composition and transport of sedimentary organic carbon in the Changjiang River (Yangtze River) Estuary and Hangzhou Bay and their adjacent waters

Surface sediments from the Changjiang River(Yangtze River) Estuary,Hangzhou Bay,and their adjacent waters were analyzed for their grain size distribution,organic carbon(OC) concentration,and stable carbon isotope composition(δ13C).Based on this analysis,about 36 surface sediment samples were selected from various environments and separated into sand(0.250 mm,0.125–0.250 mm,0.063–0.125 mm) and silt(0.025–0.063 mm)fractions by wet-sieving fractionation methods,and further into silt-(0.004–0.025 mm) and clay-sized(0.004mm) fractions by centrifugal fractionation.Sediments of six grain size categories were analyzed for their OC andδ13C contents to explore the grain size composition and transport paths of sedimentary OC in the study area.From fine to coarse fractions,the OC content was 1.18%,0.51%,0.46%,0.42%,0.99%,and 0.48%,respectively,while theδ13C was –21.64‰,–22.03‰,–22.52‰,–22.46‰,–22.36‰,and –22.28‰,respectively.In each size category,the OC contribution was 42.96%,26.06%,9.82%,5.75%,7.09%,and 8.33%,respectively.The OC content in clay and fine silt fractions(0.025 mm) was about 69.02%.High OC concentrations were mainly found in offshore modern sediments in the northeast of the Changjiang River Estuary,in modern sediments in the lower estuary of the Changjiang River and Hangzhou Bay,and in Cyclonic Eddy modern sediments to the southwest of the Cheju Island.Integrating the distribution of terrestrial OC content of each grain size category with the δ13C of the bulk sediment indicated that the terrestrial organic material in the Changjiang River Estuary was transported seaward and dispersed to the Cyclonic Eddy modern sediments to the southwest of the Cheju Island via two pathways:one was a result of the Changjiang River Diluted Water(CDW) northeastward extending branch driven by the North Jiangsu Coastal Current and the Yellow Sea Coastal Current,while the other one was the result of the CDW southward extending branch driven by the Taiwan Warm Current.     

Impacts of anthropogenic activities on the Changjiang(Yangtze)estuarine ecosystem(1998–2012)

Estuarine ecosystem has greatly changed in the recent decades due to anthropogenic perturbations in the Changjiang Estuary. Change patterns and impact factors were analyzed based on the continuous data...     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

温州南鳌江口海域海床近期冲淤演变分析

温州南部鳌江口海域近年来先后完成了筑坝促淤、围垦吹填、维护航道等一系列影响水流泥沙和地形地貌变化的大型工程。根据2010年实测水文泥沙资料和4幅不同时期(1963,2003,2005,2011年)地形图对比分析了鳌江口海域的地形变化趋势,结果显示鳌江口海域海床冲淤过程大体上经过了3个不同时期,即1963-2003年江南围涂等海区缓慢淤积期;2003-2005年该海域既冲刷又淤积的稳定期;2005-2011年整个水域以轻微冲刷为主的冲刷期。经过分析得知鳌江口海域海床近年来的变化主要是由航道疏浚、围垦吹填及工程促淤引起的,而围填海工程引起动力变化和泥沙减少也对海床冲淤有一定程度的影响。     

海水盐度对沉降泥沙固结过程影响研究

黄河每年输送上亿吨泥沙入海,其中80%以上沉积在河口附近水下三角洲。受黄河入海径流量、气候及海洋动力条件影响,黄河口海域海水盐度变化显著。目前,不同盐度海水环境下入海泥沙沉降形成的海床土,固结过程有何差异尚不清楚。本文在黄河水下三角洲潮坪配制不同盐度的流态沉积物,模拟不同沉积环境下新沉积土的固结过程,利用轻型贯入测试、十字板剪切测试等现场原位试验,实时观测沉积环境盐度对沉降泥沙固结过程的影响。研究发现:随着海水盐度增加,沉积物固结强度增大,沉积环境盐度每增高1‰,沉积物固结后强度可增加0.15倍;海水盐度对沉积物固结速率的影响,在初始阶段表现不明显,在沉积物固结后期,盐度每增高1‰,固结速率可增长1.23倍;海水盐度的增高,还加剧了沉积物固结强度的空间非均匀性。本研究的发现,促进了对河口区海底工程环境的认识。