长江流域大洪水有序网络结构及其预测研究

根据1827年以来的统计资料进行分析,长江流域大洪水展示出极为显著的有序性.运用翁文波信息预测理论,构建长江大洪水二维平面和三维立体信息有序网络结构并进行综合分析和预测,结果表明：2014、2020、2030、2036、2051与2058年前后的汛期,长江流域将有可能发生大洪水.     

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN SETTLF, MENT IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA IN NEOLITHIC AGE

Dating data, altitude of Neolithic sites, climatic changes from sedimentary records and previous research results were collected and analyzed to detect possible connections between climatic changes and human activities in the Changjiang River Delta in the Neolithic Age. The results indicated that hydrological changes greatly impacted the human activities in the study region. Low-lying geomorphology made the floods and sea level changes become the important factors affecting human activities, especially the altitude change of human settlements. People usually moved to higher places during the periods characterized by high sea level and frequent floods to escape the negative influences from water body expansion, which resulted in cultural hiatus in certain profiles. However, some higher-altitude settlements were not the results of climatic changes but the results of social factors, such as religious ceremony and social status. Therefore, further research will be necessary for the degree and types of impacts of climatic changes on human activities in the study area at that time.     

The applicability of research on flood-drought tendency —an analysis on disastrous flood of Taihu Lake basin in June-July, 1991

In Taihu Lake basin during June–July in 1991, there happened a catastrophic flood, the precipitation reached that of 1954 and the water level was the highest in the history in Taihu Lake. This heavy flood, happening in the relatively humid period and being well accord with flood-drought change tendency, was early precautioned. The occurrence of the flood illustrated that using records of historical climate to predict flood-drough tendency is practically significant for hazard-reduction project.     

Spectrum characteristics of major ion concentrations at Wuhan sectoin of the Changjiang Rriver

Spectrum analyses of water quality time series have been carried out for five hydrometric stations including Wuhan hydrometric station of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River, etc. The fluctuations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and HCO ₃ ⁻ concentrations in river water under different physical geography conditions have about two-year cycle which is corresponding to hydrometeorological quasi-biannual-oscillation (QBO). Na⁺, Cl⁻ SO ₄ ²⁻ have about two-year cycle in the area lightly affected by human activities while two-year cycle doesn’t exist in the area heavily affected by human activities. All the fluctuations of major ions have about three-month cycle. The river diseharge fluctuation accounts for 43.9%, 45.1%, 54.3%, 33.9%, 30.3% and 42.7% of the variance of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO ₃ ⁻ , Na⁺, Cl⁻, SO ₄ ²⁻ , respectively, at Wuhan from 1962 to 1985. According to the spectrum characteristic of major ions, the duration of the time series has to be at least 13 years for trend analysis of monthly water quality data. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49671017). Biography: XIA Xing-hui(1971-), female, a native of Hunan Province, Ph. D. Her research interest includes environmental chemistry.     

CHEMICAL WEATHERING PROCESSES AND ATMOSPHERIC CO_2 CONSUMPTION OF HUANGHE RIVER AND CHANGJIANG RIVER BASINS

1 INTRODUCTIONThe atmospheric CO2consumed by rock weathering haslong been recognized as providing a major loss of car-bon and decreasing the atmospheric CO2(STALL-ARD and EDMOND, 1981; MEYBECK, 1983).The 0.7×109 -0.8 ×109t of carbon derived from atmo-sp…     

长江三角洲晚第四纪地层沉积特征与生物气成藏条件分析

对长江三角洲晚第四纪地层沉积特征进行了精细研究,探讨了研究区层序地层格架,在此基础上分析了浅层生物气成藏条件、特征和分布规律。研究表明,长江三角洲晚第四纪发育3期下切河谷,形成了3套沉积层序;因后期河流的强烈下切破坏,早期沉积层序往往被剥蚀殆尽,仅残留下部的河床相粗粒沉积,造成不同期河床相的叠置;相对而言,末次冰期以来形成的下切河谷沉积层序以相对完整的沉积相组合被保存下来。长江三角洲浅层天然气是未经运移的原生生物气,其主要富集于末次冰期以来的沉积层序内,气藏为自生自储同生型的岩性圈闭。河口湾—河漫滩和浅海相泥质沉积物既是气源岩,又是盖层,后者可作为良好的区域盖层;河口湾—河漫滩和河床相砂质沉积物为主要储集层。因此,研究区晚第四纪多期下切河谷沉积层序有利于浅层生物气藏的形成,特别是晚期下切河谷内河口湾—河漫滩相砂质透镜体以及河床相砂体可作为优先勘探目标。     

长江口水下三角洲表层沉积物有机质分布特征

根据对长江口水下三角洲31个表层样沉积物粒度、总有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)的测定,得出了粒度及有机质的分布特征,利用C/N比分析有机质来源及不同来源的贡献率。研究结果表明: 1)长江口水下三角洲表层沉积物平均粒径介于3~8Φ之间,存在由陆向海变细的趋势; 2)TOC含量在0.1% ~1.2% 之间,平均值为0.52%; TN含量介于0.02% ~0.08% 之间,平均值为0.057% 。TOC和TN含量的分布特征相似,具有自陆向海、由低至高的变化趋势,这主要是受到沉积物粒径的影响,但是TOC在崇明岛东侧和九段沙东侧有两个高值点,可能与人类活动或局地因素有关; 粒度校正之后,TOC含量在0.40% ~1.67% 之间,平均值为0.68%; TN的含量介于0.05% ~0.10% 之间,平均值为0.07% 。TOC含量在近岸地区略高,TN含量是北部地区略高于南部地区,并且TOC和TN都在崇明岛东侧和九段沙东侧有两个高值点; 3)C/N比值在6~16之间,平均值为9.6; 利用C/N比值估算得到的陆源有机碳含量在35% ~90% 之间,平均值为60% 。C/N比和陆源有机碳含量在长江口南支外围邻近海域表层沉积物中较高,表明南支带来了大量的陆源有机质入海,并呈舌状向东北方向凸出; 而在长江北支附近其值相对较低,表明北支径流影响相对减弱,潮流作用相对增强。研究表明,长江南支是主要的陆源有机质入海通道,而进入水下三角洲之后陆源有机碳分布受到了河口混合过程的显著影响。     

长江河口区上段水、悬沙通量及其对北支演化的意义

2007年9月在长江河口3条控制断面的全潮观测结果表明,长江口南支均以落潮流和落潮输沙占优,而北支大、小潮期间的水沙输运特征迥异; 其特征与长江径流、河口地形地貌特征密切相关。小潮期间,长江口北支以落潮流占优; 大潮期间,则以涨潮流占优,且悬沙输运率比小潮期间增大一个数量级。分析结果进一步表明,从1958年至今,长江口北支的分流比呈下降的趋势,已由11.8% 降至目前的1.9%; 长江口北支也由早期的悬沙输入(与径流方向相反)通道变为输出通道,目前其分沙比仍达6.4% ~7.9% 左右。总体上,分流分沙比呈显著减小趋势,这是长江口北支萎缩的重要特征之一。此外,北支分沙比显著大于分流比,将可能造成北支的进一步淤积。     

长江口叶绿素a年际变化及其对三峡大坝的响应

通过SeaWiFS和MODIS卫星数据获得1997—2012年长江口区域年均、月均叶绿素a浓度,结合长江入海水沙资料,研究长江口叶绿素a浓度变化与长江来水来沙的关系及对三峡建坝的响应。结果显示,研究区在年均与月均尺度上,长江口叶绿素a浓度与长江径流量均存在较好的线性关系（判定系数分别为0.72和0.89）,而与输沙关系较差,说明径流携带溶解态营养盐对浮游植物的贡献大于泥沙颗粒吸附的颗粒态营养盐贡献;三峡建坝后,研究区年均叶绿素a浓度出现下降趋势,月均叶绿素a浓度变化显示,原本的春、夏季峰值出现了一个月左右的滞后期,分析主要与建坝后较多枯水年份导致的春旱和三峡防洪前的排水以及夏季对洪峰的拦截有关;虽然蓄洪排枯增加了枯水月份径流量,但由于枯水月大多温度低、透光性差,不利于浮游植物生长,蓄洪排枯对枯水月份叶绿素影响不大,洪水季由于削峰导致叶绿素浓度较大坝建成前降低,因此,三峡大坝建成后研究区总体年际叶绿素a浓度呈降低趋势。     

近20年来长江口表层悬沙分布的遥感监测

利用近20年来长江口地区的美国陆地卫星Landsat TM和ETM影像反演得到了长江口海区表层悬沙分布遥感解译系列图,讨论了长江口表层悬沙的空间分布特征、潮汐变化对泥沙分布的影响、三峡工程对泥沙分布的影响及河口径流量和输沙量对泥沙分布的影响等;描述了长江口海区洪枯季的表层悬沙扩散外界和高浑浊水域范围的变化趋势,并分析了河流泥沙输移入海的形态特征及表层悬沙浓度的变化特征。