Blood metal levels and metal-influenced immune functions of harbour seals in captivity

Immunological blood parameters and the effects of environmental pollutants on the immune system are important to assess the health status of seals. Animals living permanently in seal centres are useful for development and validation of diagnostic tools for free-ranging animals. In this study, parameters of cellular immunity as well as metal concentrations in blood and metal influence on cell proliferation of seven seals from a seal centre were investigated repeatedly using multi-element analysis and a lymphocyte proliferation assay. The metal concentrations, except for tin and chromium, were in general comparable to those of free-ranging animals of the North Sea. The unstimulated and mitogen-stimulated lymphocyte proliferation showed strong intra- and inter-individual variability, which reflected variability in activation of the immune status. Furthermore, both immunosuppressive and stimulative influences of metals on lymphocytes were found. Summarising, the methods used in this investigation provided useful information on these animals, and their application to free-ranging animals can be recommended.     

Issues in characterizing heterogeneity and connectivity in non-multiGaussian media

The performances of kriging, stochastic simulations and sequential self-calibration inversion are assessed when characterizing a non-multiGaussian synthetic 2D braided channel aquifer. The comparison is based on a series of criteria such as the reproduction of the original reference transmissivity or head fields, but also in terms of accuracy of flow and transport (capture zone) forecasts when the flow conditions are modified. We observe that the errors remain large even for a dense data network. In addition some unexpected behaviours are observed when large transmissivity datasets are used. In particular, we observe an increase of the bias with the number of transmissivity data and an increasing uncertainty with the number of head data. This is interpreted as a consequence of the use of an inadequate multiGaussian stochastic model that is not able to reproduce the connectivity of the original field.     

Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model

Since the mechanical properties of lava change over time, lava flows represent a challenge for physically based modeling. This change is ruled by a temperature field which needs to be modeled. MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model was developed for physically based simulations of lava flows in near real-time. We introduced an algorithm based on the Monte Carlo approach to solve the anisotropic problem. As transition rule of CA, a steady-state solution of Navier-Stokes equations was adopted in the case of isothermal laminar pressure-driven Bingham fluid. For the cooling mechanism, we consider only the radiative heat loss from the surface of the flow and the change of the temperature due to mixture of lavas between cells with different temperatures. The model was applied to reproduce a real lava flow that occurred during the 2004–2005 Etna eruption. The simulations were computed using three different empirical relationships between viscosity and temperature.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

基于CA的昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂传播的空间模拟

元胞自动机CA（Cellular Automaton）与地理信息系统（GIS）的集成弥补了GIS在时空分析和时空演化方面的不足,为昆虫种群生态学的研究提供了新的手段。利用DEM提取地形因子,使用统计分析分析了昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂与林分因子、立地因子之间的关系。主要取得了腮扁叶蜂虫口密度与立地因子关系密切,并推导出了腮扁叶蜂的虫口密度与海拔、坡度、坡向、坡位的逐步逻辑回归数学模型。以数学模型结合空间自相关函数建立时空预测模型作为转换规则,以地理信息系统为平台利用元胞自动机模型模拟腮扁叶蜂传播,预测结果给出了昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂密度分布的结果,给防治决策提供了方便。     

基于元胞自动机民勤绿洲湖区荒漠化演化预测

民勤湖区是民勤绿洲中生态环境最为恶劣的地区,土地荒漠化问题十分突出。以民勤绿洲湖区为例,解译1992年、1998年、2002年和2006年TM卫星影像,分析其荒漠化动态变化情况,利用ArcObjects模块结合地理元胞自动机理论构造荒漠化动态模拟模型,通过对比2006年的预测数据与实际数据,对模型进行参数调整和预测检验。预测结果表明,模型预测的准确性达到90%。最后对2012年该区土地利用状况做出预测,进而对荒漠化的发展趋势进行预测分析。     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

基于SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型——以江苏省南通地区为例

充分利用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)在情景模拟和宏观因素反映上的优势和元胞自动机模型(Cellular Automata,CA)在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,构建一个耦合SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型,并以江苏省南通地区为例,对模型的实证应用做了进一步的验证。结果表明,这种耦合模型不仅能够对研究区域未来城镇土地扩展数量给予一个比较好的预测,而且还对其空间分布效果做了一定精度上的模拟,这使得城市规划在土地利用预测方面有一个相对科学的依据。     

摩擦时间依从的地震活动性细胞自动机模型

设计了一个改进的单断层地震孕育过程细胞自动机（ＣＡ）模型,通过设计外界通过 施加应力与模型间进行的能量交换和模型的细胞之间存在的非线性力学作用,试图理解地震 活动特性的力学机制．与早期细胞自动机模型相比,改进了参数的取值方式,将摩擦时间依 从的理论引进模型,使该细胞自动机模型更接近实际的孕震系统．研究表明参数取值方式对 人工地震序列和各细胞破裂事件的非均匀时间特性有重要影响,较小震级和较大震级范围中 的事件分别遵从明显不同的累积频度一震级关系．     

Oscillations In Galaxies

Oscillations in galaxies have been investigated by numerical simulations. The various models used have density distributions corresponding to that of polytrope of index n in the range 0 ≤ n ≤ 4 and their evolution has been followed for more than 70 crossing times. The kinetic energy shows regular and smooth oscillations for models with n = 0, 1 and 2 whereas in other models it shows noisy oscillation. The oscillation in kinetic energy is observed to have a period of 3 crossing time irrespective of the density and size of the galaxy. The amplitude of oscillation is seen to decrease as the central density of the galaxy increases. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.