Gap Filling and Quality Assessment of CO2 and Water Vapour Fluxes above an Urban Area with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks

Vertical turbulent fluxes of water vapour, carbon dioxide, and sensible heat were measured from 16 August to the 28 September 2006 near the city centre of Münster in north-west Germany. In comparison to results of measurements above homogeneous ecosystem sites, the CO₂ fluxes above the urban investigation area showed more peaks and higher variances during the course of a day, probably caused by traffic and other varying, anthropogenic sources. The main goal of this study is the introduction and establishment of a new gap filling procedure using radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, which is also applicable under complex environmental conditions. We applied adapted RBF neural networks within a combined modular expert system of neural networks as an innovative approach to fill data gaps in micrometeorological flux time series. We found that RBF networks are superior to multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks in the reproduction of the highly variable turbulent fluxes. In addition, we enhanced the methodology in the field of quality assessment for eddy covariance data. An RBF neural network mapping system was used to identify conditions of a turbulence regime that allows reliable quantification of turbulent fluxes through finding an acceptable minimum of the friction velocity. For the data analysed in this study, the minimum acceptable friction velocity was found to be 0.15 m s⁻¹. The obtained CO₂ fluxes, measured on a tower at 65 m a.g.l., reached average values of 12 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹ and fell to nighttime minimum values of 3 μmol m ⁻² s⁻¹. Mean daily CO₂ emissions of 21 g CO₂ m⁻²d ⁻¹ were obtained during our 6-week experiment. Hence, the city centre of Münster appeared to be a significant source of CO₂. The half-hourly average values of water vapour fluxes ranged between 0.062 and 0.989 mmol m⁻² s⁻¹and showed lower variances than the simultaneously measured fluxes of CO₂.     

Investigating a Hierarchy of Eulerian Closure Models for Scalar Transfer Inside Forested Canopies

Modelling the transfer of heat, water vapour, and CO₂ between the biosphere and the atmosphere is made difficult by the complex two-way interaction between leaves and their immediate microclimate. When simulating scalar sources and sinks inside canopies on seasonal, inter-annual, or forest development time scales, the so-called well-mixed assumption (WMA) of mean concentration (i.e. vertically constant inside the canopy but dynamically evolving in time) is often employed. The WMA eliminates the need to model how vegetation alters its immediate microclimate, which necessitates formulations that utilize turbulent transport theories. Here, two inter-related questions pertinent to the WMA for modelling scalar sources, sinks, and fluxes at seasonal to inter-annual time scales are explored: (1) if the WMA is to be replaced so as to resolve this two-way interaction, how detailed must the turbulent transport model be? And (2) what are the added predictive skills gained by resolving the two-way interaction vis-à-vis other uncertainties such as seasonal variations in physiological parameters. These two questions are addressed by simulating multi-year mean scalar concentration and eddy-covariance scalar flux measurements collected in a Loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantation near Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. using turbulent transport models ranging from K-theory (or first-order closure) to third-order closure schemes. The multi-layer model calculations with these closure schemes were contrasted with model calculations employing the WMA. These comparisons suggested that (i) among the three scalars, sensible heat flux predictions are most biased with respect to eddy-covariance measurements when using the WMA, (ii) first-order closure schemes are sufficient to reproduce the seasonal to inter-annual variations in scalar fluxes provided the canonical length scale of turbulence is properly specified, (iii) second-order closure models best agree with measured mean scalar concentration (and temperature) profiles inside the canopy as well as scalar fluxes above the canopy, (iv) there are no clear gains in predictive skills when using third-order closure schemes over their second-order closure counterparts. At inter-annual time scales, biases in modelled scalar fluxes incurred by using the WMA exceed those incurred when correcting for the seasonal amplitude in the maximum carboxylation capacity (V _{cmax, 25}) provided its mean value is unbiased. The role of local thermal stratification inside the canopy and possible computational simplifications in decoupling scalar transfer from the generation of the flow statistics are also discussed.

“The tree, tilting its leaves to capture bullets of light; inhaling, exhaling; its many thousand stomata breathing, creating the air”. Ruth Stone, 2002, In the Next Galaxy

     

Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 （Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model）, developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）, Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS）. In order to validate the model, the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980s for the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold （1950 1976） and warm （1977-2000） periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations （significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level）. The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China＇s Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario. The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5~C relative to climate mean （1960-1990）. Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.     

华东稻麦轮作农田CH4、N2O和NO排放特征

利用同步自动观测系统对华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放进行了长期连续观测,分析了这3种气体排放的季节特征及决定因素,结果表明,华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放具有完全不同的季节变化形式。CH4的排放发生在水稻生长期,其他阶段排放不明显,土壤水分状况是决定整个轮作周期内CH4排放变化的主要因素。N2O排放具有"冬季无,水田少,旱地多"的季节变化特点,尤其以旱地阶段的排放为主,土壤水分状况和温度共同决定着N2O排放的季节变化形式。NO排放具有"冬季无,水田很少,春季旱地多于秋季旱地"的季节分布特点,轮作周期内97.3%±0.6%的NO排放都发生在除冬季以外的旱地阶段,NO排放的季节变化形式由土壤水分状况和温度共同决定。大多数情况下稻田CH4和N2O排放呈互为消长的关系,但在烤田期间,二者却有时甚至同时出现高排放。在N2O日平均排放通量小于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,稻麦轮作农田的N2O和NO排放呈明显的互为消长关系,但大于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,N2O排放很强,同时NO排放也很强。     

Short-period Jupiter family comets after Stardust

The NASA Stardust mission has provided for laboratory study an extensive data set of cometary dust of known provenance (from comet 81P/Wild 2) yielding detailed insights into the composition of the comet. Combined with the results of data from other missions to short-period Jupiter family comets (JFC), this has greatly deepened the understanding of such objects. If depressions on the surface of comet 81P/Wild 2 are all taken as evidence of impact cratering, their number suggests a long occupancy in the outer region of the Solar System. The dust from comet 81P/Wild 2 has been shown to be heavily deficient in pre-Solar grains and rich in materials formed at high temperatures in the inner Solar System. Although it is too early to know if this is typical of JFC, it does argue for rapid and thorough mixing of materials in the disk on timescales related to comet formation, and may also suggest outward migration of small icy bodies after their formation. Thus, instead of providing mainly new knowledge of the pre-Solar materials expected to be rich in comets, Stardust and comet 81P/Wild 2 have instead focussed attention on large-scale transport processes during the critical period when cometary parent bodies were forming in the early Solar System.     

X-ray spectral evolution of the extragalactic Z source LMC X-2

We present the results obtained by a detailed study of the extragalactic Z source LMC X-2, using broad-band Suzaku data and a large (∼750 ks) data set obtained with the proportional counter array (PCA) onboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Experiment ( RXTE ). The PCA data allow the study of the complete spectral evolution along the horizontal, normal and flaring branches of the Z track. Comparison with previous studies shows that the details of spectral evolution (like the variation of Comptonizing electron temperature) are similar to those of GX 17+2 but unlike those of Cyg X-2 and GX 349+2. This suggests that Z sources are a heterogeneous group, with perhaps LMC X-2 and GX 17+2 being members of a subclass. However, non-monotonic evolution of the Compton y parameter seems to be generic to all sources. The broad-band Suzaku data reveal that the case in which the additional soft component of the source is modelled as disc blackbody emission is strongly preferred over the one where it is taken to be a blackbody spectrum. This component, as well as the temperature of seed photons, does not vary when the source goes into flaring mode, and the entire variation can be ascribed to the Comptonizing cloud. The bolometric unabsorbed luminosity of the source is constrained to be  ∼2.23 × 10³⁸ erg s⁻¹  , which, if the source is Eddington-limited, implies a neutron star mass of  1.6 M_⊙  . We discuss the implications of these results.     

Decompression and H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O exsolution driven crystallization and fractionation: development of a new model for low-pressure fractional crystallization in calc-alkaline magmatic systems

Magma ascent, decompression-induced H₂O exsolution and crystallization is now recognized as an important process in hydrous subduction zone magmas. During the course of such a process calculations suggest that the ascent rate of a degassing and crystallizing mafic magma will be greater than crystal settling velocities. Thus, any crystals formed as a consequence of volatile exsolution will remain suspended in the magma. If the magma erupts before the percentage of suspended crystals reaches the critical crystallinity value for mafic magma (~55 vol.%) it will produce the commonly observed crystal rich island arc basalt lava. If the magma reaches its critical crystallinity before it erupts then it will stall within the crust. Extension of compaction experiments on a 55 vol.% sand-Karo syrup suspension at different temperatures (and liquid viscosities) to the likely viscosities of interstitial andesitic to dacitic liquid within such a stalled magma suggest that small amounts (up to ~10%) can be expelled on a time scale of 1–10 years. The expelled liquid can create a new intermediate to silicic body of magma that is related to the original mafic magma via fractional crystallization. The short time scale for liquid expulsion indicate that decompression-induced H₂O exsolution and crystallization can be an important mechanism for fractional crystallization. Based on this assumption a general model of decompression-induced crystallization and fractionation is proposed that explains many of the compositional, mineralogical and textural features of Aleutian (and other andesites).     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.