Parametric analysis of the seismic response of a 2D sedimentary valley: implications for code implementations of complex site effects

A detailed 2D model has been constructed and validated for Euroseistest valley, in northern Greece. We take advantage of this model to investigate what parameters, in addition to surface soil conditions (obviously the most important parameter), can be used to correctly characterize site response in a 2D structure. Through a parametric analysis using 2D numerical simulations for SH waves, we explore the differences between the computed ground motion for different simplifications of the valley's structure. We consider variations in the velocity structure within the sediments, and variations of the shape between sediments and bedrock. We also compare the results from different 1D models reflecting current approaches to the determination of site response. Our results show clearly that, in the case of Euroseistest, site response owes fundamentally to its closed basin shape because it is largely controlled by locally generated surface waves. Thus, in terms of predicting site response, a rough idea of its shape ratio and of the average mechanical properties of the sediments are better than a very detailed 1D profile at the central site. Although the details of ground motion may vary significantly between the models, the relative amount of surface waves generated in the 2D models seems to be relatively constant. Moreover, if we quantify the additional amplification caused by the lateral heterogeneity in terms of the ‘aggravation factor’ introduced by Chávez-García & Faccioli [7], a roughly constant factor between 2 and 3 seems to appropriately take into account the effects of lateral heterogeneity. Of course, a correct estimate of the overall impedance contrast is necessary to correctly predict the maximum amplification, a caveat that also applies to 1D models. In this sense, Euroseistest rings an alarm bell. In this valley the more significant impedance contrast lies at about 200 m depth, and it is missed both by consideration of the average shear wave velocity of the first 30 m (the V_s30 criterion) or using the detailed velocity profile down to a depth where a shear wave velocity larger than 750 m/s is found. Our conclusions indicate that, in order to improve current schemes to take into account site effects in building codes, the more to be gained comes from consideration of lateral heterogeneity, at least in the case of shallow alluvial valleys, where locally generated surface waves are likely to be important.     

Numerical simulations of MHD dynamos

The generation of magnetic fields in space plasmas and in astrophysics is usually described within the framework of magnetohydrodynamics. Turbulent helical flows produce magnetic fields very efficiently, with correlation length scales larger than those characterizing the flow. Within the context of the solar magnetic cycle, a turbulent dynamo is responsible for the so-called alpha effect, while the Omega effect is associated to the differential rotation of the Sun.We present direct numerical simulations of turbulent magnetohydrodynamic dynamos including two-fluid effects such as the Hall current. More specifically, we study the evolution of an initially weak and small-scale magnetic field in a system maintained in a stationary regime of hydrodynamic turbulence, and explore the conditions for exponential growth of the magnetic energy. In all the cases considered, we find that the dynamo saturates at the equipartition level between kinetic and magnetic energy, and the total energy reaches a Kolmogorov power spectrum.     

Sensitivity analyses of a distributed catchment model to verify the model structure

Sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for identifying important model parameters, testing the model conceptualization, and improving the model structure. They help to apply the model efficiently and to enable a focussed planning of future research and field measurement. Two different methods were used for sensitivity analyses of the complex process-oriented model TAC^D (tracer aided catchment model, distributed) that was applied to the meso-scale Brugga basin (40 km²) and the sub-basin St Wilhelmer Talbach (15.2 km²). Five simulations periods were investigated: two summer events, two snow melt induced events and one summer low flow period. The model was applied using 400 different parameter sets, which were generated by Monte Carlo simulations using latin hypercube sampling. The regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) allowed determining the most significant parameters for the complete simulation periods using a graphical method. The results of the regression-based sensitivity analysis were more detailed and complex. The temporal variability of the simulation sensitivity could be observed continuously and the significance of the parameters could be determined in a quantitative way. A dependency of the simulation sensitivity on initial- and boundary conditions and the temporal and spatial variability of the sensitivity to some model parameters was revealed by the regression-based sensitivity analysis. Thus, the difficulty of transferring the results to different time periods or model applications in other catchments became obvious. The analysis of the temporal course of the simulation sensitivity to parameter values in conjunction with simulated and measured additional data sets (precipitation, temperature, reservoir volumes etc.) gave further insight into the internal model behaviour and demonstrated the plausibility of the model structure and process conceptionalizations.     

Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.     

A scaling relation between the SZ decrement and the Thomson depth in clusters of galaxies

In a recent study of dark mater N-body simulations, a scaling relation between the SZ decrement and the Thomson depth of a cluster of galaxies of the form ΔT _r ∝τ _T ² has been found (Diaferio et al. 2000). In this paper, it will be shown that such a scaling relation arises if the intracluster gas is distributed similar to the dark matter density described by the NFW-profile and the finite spatial resolution of the numerical simulation is taken into account. It is furthermore investigated whether the ΔT _r ∝τ _T ² relation holds for analytical models of an isothermal gas sphere in the gravitational potential of a dark matter halo distributed according to the NFW-profile, the available experimental data of SZE observations, and recent results from cosmological gas-dynamical simulations of clusters of galaxies. Combining such a relation with temperature estimates from X-ray observations would provide information about a dependence of T _e on τ_T. The Thomson depth might therefore emerge as another important scaling parameter in studies of clusters of galaxies.     

Numerical investigation of the hydrodynamic interaction between two underwater bodies in relative motion

The hydrodynamic interaction between an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) manoeuvring in close proximity to a larger underwater vehicle can cause rapid changes in the motion of the AUV. This interaction can lead to mission failure and possible vehicle collision. Being self-piloted and comparatively small, an AUV is more susceptible to these interaction effects than the larger body. In an aim to predict the manoeuvring performance of an AUV under the effects of the interaction, the Australian Maritime College (AMC) has conducted a series of computer simulations and captive model experiments. A numerical model was developed to simulate pure sway motion of an AUV at different lateral and longitudinal positions relative to a larger underwater vehicle using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFDs). The variables investigated include the surge force, sway force and the yaw moment coefficients acting on the AUV due to interaction effects, which were in turn validated against experimental results. A simplified method is presented to obtain the hydrodynamic coefficients of an AUV when operating close to a larger underwater body by transforming the single body hydrodynamic coefficients of the AUV using the steady-state interaction forces. This method is considerably less time consuming than traditional methods. Furthermore, the inverse of this method (i.e. to obtain the steady state interaction force) is also presented to obtain the steady-state interaction force at multiple lateral separations efficiently. Both the CFD model and the simplified methods have been validated against the experimental data and are capable of providing adequate interaction predictions. Such methods are critical for accurate prediction of vehicle performance under varying conditions present in real life.     

Combined Impacts of Warm Central Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Anthropogenic Warming on the 2019 Severe Drought in East China

A severe drought occurred in East China (EC) from August to October 2019 against a background of long-term significant warming and caused widespread impacts on agriculture and society, emphasizing the urgent need to understand the mechanism responsible for this drought and its linkage to global warming. Our results show that the warm central equatorial Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) and anthropogenic warming were possibly responsible for this drought event. The warm CEP SST anomaly resulted in an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific, where enhanced northerly winds in the northwestern sector led to decreased water vapor transport from the South China Sea and enhanced descending air motion, preventing local convection and favoring a precipitation deficiency over EC. Model simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project confirmed the physical connection between the warm CEP SST anomaly and the drought in EC. The extremely warm CEP SST from August to October 2019, which was largely the result of natural internal variability, played a crucial role in the simultaneous severe drought in EC. The model simulations showed that anthropogenic warming has greatly increased the frequency of extreme droughts in EC. They indicated an approximate twofold increase in extremely low rainfall events, high temperature events, and concurrently dry and hot events analogous to the event in 2019. Therefore, the persistent severe drought over EC in 2019 can be attributed to the combined impacts of warm CEP SST and anthropogenic warming.     

基于超越概率的重庆市住宅区风环境品质定量评估

城市化发展显著改变城市下垫面几何形态,导致局地风环境品质恶化,产生城市风环境问题。本文基于超越概率阈值法,结合计算流体力学数值模拟,建立适用于住宅区风环境品质定量评估的一般方法和流程。并以重庆市龙湖社区为例,从大概率和偶发事件的角度对住宅区精细化风环境品质进行评估。结果表明：受复杂下垫面影响,住宅区风环境品质存在明显的区域差异。在开阔空间、与盛行风向一致的街道以及高层建筑周围,风速整体偏大,风环境品质较差,等级为1级乙;在建筑物密集区和封闭的小区内部,风速整体偏小,风环境品质较好,等级为1级甲。城市下垫面的摩擦阻力作用,使住宅区平均风速降低,小区整体风环境品质等级趋于良好。风环境品质评估对促进精细化气象服务水平的提升和城市防灾减灾能力的提高有一定的积极作用。     

CFD数值分析三体船片体位置对阻力及兴波干扰影响

三体船的水动力性能是目前水动力学研究的热门。对于中高速三体船来说,其静水阻力的很大一部分由兴波阻力构成,而对于兴波最大的影响因素就是片体位置的布局。以一艘圆舭型三体船为研究对象,运用黏流计算流体力学(CFD)方法模拟分析4种不同片体位置对三体船静水阻力和兴波干扰的影响。数值计算采用自主研发的黏流CFD求解器naoe-FOAM-SJTU。数值预报得到三体船静水阻力结果与模型试验结果吻合较好,验证了当前CFD方法预报三体船阻力的可靠性。通过不同片体位置三体船阻力计算发现,方案4的船型方案阻力最优,且通过细节的主片体间兴波干扰流场的结果给出了不同片体布置方案对三体船阻力和兴波的影响。