The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations?

In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact of convective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South China heavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds of physics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavy rainfall is that different latent heat of convective condensation produced by different convective schemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speed by the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere,and therefore, making difference of the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. New precipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation,which finally make the dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of methods are used to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using different convective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting different parameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the first ensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavy rainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physics ensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance and have higher application value.Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken into consideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters in Grell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust the parameter in one scheme according to the physical meaning of the parameter still needs further investigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and more cases will be addressed in the future researches.     

The haloes of merger remnants

We perform collisionless N -body simulations of 1:1 galaxy mergers, using models which include a galaxy halo, disc and bulge, focusing on the behaviour of the halo component. The galaxy models are constructed without recourse to a Maxwellian approximation. We investigate the effect of varying the galaxies' orientation, their mutual orbit and the initial velocity anisotropy or cusp strength of the haloes upon the remnant halo density profiles and shape, as well as on the kinematics. We observe that the halo density profile (determined as a spherical average, an approximation we find appropriate) is exceptionally robust in mergers, and that the velocity anisotropy of our remnant haloes is nearly independent of the orbits or initial anisotropy of the haloes. The remnants follow the halo anisotropy – local density slope (β–γ) relation suggested by Hansen & Moore in the inner parts of the halo, but β is systematically lower than this relation predicts in the outer parts. Remnant halo axis ratios are strongly dependent on the initial parameters of the haloes and on their orbits. We also find that the remnant haloes are significantly less spherical than those described in studies of simulations which include gas cooling.     

Global Dynamics in Self-Consistent Models of Elliptical Galaxies

We compare two different N-body models simulating elliptical galaxies. Namely, the first model is a non-rotating triaxial N-body equilibrium model with smooth center, called SC model. The second model, called CM model, is derived from the SC by inserting a central mass in it, so that all possible differences between the two models are due to the effect of the central mass. The central mass is assumed to be mainly due to a massive central black hole of mass about 1% of the total mass of the galaxy. By using the fundamental frequency analysis, the two systems are thoroughly investigated as regards the types of orbits described either by test particles, or by the real particles of the systems at all the energy levels. A comparison between the orbits of test particles and the orbits of real particles at various energy levels is made on the rotation number plane. We find that extensive stable regions of phase space, detected by test particles remain empty, i.e. these regions are not occupied by real particles, while many real particles move in unstable regions of phase space describing chaotic orbits. We run self-consistently the two models for more than a Hubble time. During this run, in spite of the noise due to small variations of the potential, the SC model maintains (within a small uncertainly) the number of particles moving on orbits of each particular type. In contrast, the CM model is unstable, due to the large amount of mass in chaotic motion caused by the central mass. This system undergoes a secular evolution towards an equilibrium state. During this evolution it is gradually self-organized by converting chaotic orbits to ordered orbits mainly of the short axis tube type approaching an oblate spheroidal equilibrium. This is clearly demonstrated in terms of the fundamental frequencies of the orbits on the rotation number plane and the time evolution of the triaxiality index.