Issues in characterizing heterogeneity and connectivity in non-multiGaussian media

The performances of kriging, stochastic simulations and sequential self-calibration inversion are assessed when characterizing a non-multiGaussian synthetic 2D braided channel aquifer. The comparison is based on a series of criteria such as the reproduction of the original reference transmissivity or head fields, but also in terms of accuracy of flow and transport (capture zone) forecasts when the flow conditions are modified. We observe that the errors remain large even for a dense data network. In addition some unexpected behaviours are observed when large transmissivity datasets are used. In particular, we observe an increase of the bias with the number of transmissivity data and an increasing uncertainty with the number of head data. This is interpreted as a consequence of the use of an inadequate multiGaussian stochastic model that is not able to reproduce the connectivity of the original field.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano,D.R.C.

The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma.     

Oscillations In Galaxies

Oscillations in galaxies have been investigated by numerical simulations. The various models used have density distributions corresponding to that of polytrope of index n in the range 0 ≤ n ≤ 4 and their evolution has been followed for more than 70 crossing times. The kinetic energy shows regular and smooth oscillations for models with n = 0, 1 and 2 whereas in other models it shows noisy oscillation. The oscillation in kinetic energy is observed to have a period of 3 crossing time irrespective of the density and size of the galaxy. The amplitude of oscillation is seen to decrease as the central density of the galaxy increases. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

解耦爆炸中震源位置偏离对激发S波的影响

对球形空腔偏心解耦爆炸进行了数值模拟,得到了不同方向和不同爆心距节点的S波和P波速度曲线以及岩石单元中拉伸应力的传播过程。结果表明：空腔偏心解耦爆炸激发的S波具有方向性,S波幅值与对应P波幅值相当,激发S波的物理机制是振荡的拉伸应力,它等效于偶极子震源。     

油井射流排砂泵扩散管出口流场分析

依据RNG-ε双方程湍流模型,建立油井射流排砂泵固液两相流方程;在此基础上,应用CFD计算机分析软件,对比分析了扩散管出口突变结构和渐变结构的射流排砂泵的效率、固相比、速度场分布、压力场分布。数值分析结果表明：射流泵扩散管出口采用渐变结构,可以有效减少固液两相流的逆向速度矢量,是提高射流排砂泵综合性能的有效手段。     

基于GMS的三维TOUGH2模型及模拟

GMS和TOUGH2均是应用广泛的地下流动系统数值模拟软件,其中,GMS界面友好,功能强大;而TOUGH2虽具有强大的数值计算能力,但缺乏友好的可视化前后处理界面。本文借助GMS强大的前处理能力,基于概念模型建立了三维复杂模型,把GMS/MODFLOW三维数值模型(包括网格数据、岩性数据、初始和边界数据等)转化为TOUGH2数值模型进行数值计算。通过两个计算实例(含水层水平没有起伏和有起伏)对比分析了GMS/MODFLOW和TOUGH2计算结果的差异。结果显示,该方法可以快速地建立刻画复杂地质条件的TOUGH2模型,计算结果与GMS/MODFLOW差异很小,说明两个软件均有很高的可信度;同时,该方法发挥了两个软件各自的优势,为进行更为复杂的多相流动数值模拟提供了可行性。     

基于大涡模拟的小区气候态精细化风环境模拟试验

对具有复杂下垫面的小区精细化风环境进行数值模拟是当前城市气象研究的热点,而针对具有复杂地形的山地型城市（如重庆）的研究还比较匮乏。本文采用能显式分辨下垫面陡峭地形和复杂建筑物的计算流体力学（CFD）模式对重庆市渝北区龙湖社区气候态下的精细化风环境进行高分辨率的数值模拟。结果表明,下垫面能显著调节小区内风场的分布,风速大值区主要出现在九龙湖等开阔区域以及与中尺度背景入流方向一致的街道中。在夏季,小区整体风场以东南风为主,而其他3个季节则以偏东风为主。4个季节中,夏季小区内的风速最大,平均风速为0.3 m/s左右,局地能出现大于背景风的风速,可达0.8 m/s;其他3个季节的风速则较弱,区域平均的风速在0.2 m/s左右。不同的建筑物布局对局地风环境的影响也不同:单个孤立高层建筑迎风面的近地面存在明显地绕流,局地风速有所增加,而在背风面则形成尾流区,水平风速较低;在低矮分散的建筑群,建筑物的整体高度不高,区域内流场相对来说比较一致,风速较大,有利于小区的通风;在密集高层建筑群内,由于建筑物群本身的布局比较封闭,加之不同建筑物的环流场存在相互干扰及影响,使得小区近地面风速几乎为零,不利于小区通风和污染物扩散。建筑物的这些影响在城市冠层内尤为明显,高度越高这种影响越弱。     

A TWO-LAYER PRIMITIVE EQUATION OCEAN CURRENT MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION

A two-layer primitive equation model is developed in this paper. The capabilities of this model aretested by the use of multiyearly averaged January and July sea surface level pressure fields and windfields which can be diagnosed from the pressure fields. The results show that the ocean surface currentsand undercurrents in the second layer driven by the sea surface wind and the sea surface pressure areclose to the observation. The results are also compared with that of the IAP OGCM and the OSUOGCM.