2012—2016年象山近岸海域水质评价与模拟研究

为了解象山近岸海域水质污染状况,文章根据2012—2016年象山县近岸海域的水质监测结果,分析象山近岸海域水质现状及年际变化。应用灰色预测的模型来对象山近岸海域水质主要污染物的相关数据进行处理,得出主要污染物的预测结果。分析结果表明：象山近岸海域主要污染物为无机氮。用预测结果和实际数值通过残差验证,最后模拟出今后几年的监测值,为象山县近岸海域生态环境相关管理部门提供数据支撑和决策依据。     

New formulae for capacity energy-based assessment of liquefaction triggering

Abstract

Liquefaction of loose saturated soil deposits is a hazardous type of ground failure occurring under earthquake excitations. Therefore, an accurate estimation of liquefaction potential is extremely important in geotechnical engineering. In the current study, a new model is proposed which estimates the level of strain energy needed for liquefaction initiation. A compiled database containing cyclic tests gathered from previously published works was used to develop new models to predict liquefaction potential. M5′ algorithm was used to find the best correlation between parameters. It was shown that not only the derived formulas are acceptably accurate but also they feature a very simple structure in comparison with available formulas in the literature. The proposed equations are accurate, physically sound and uncomplicated. Furthermore, safety factors were given for different levels of risk, which can be useful for engineering practice. In addition, the influence of different predictors on the liquefaction potential was evaluated and also the significance of input variables was assessed via sensitivity analysis. Finally, a new model was introduced for preliminary estimation of liquefaction potential.     

Unified numerical study of shallow foundation on structured soft clay under unconsolidated and consolidated-undrained loadings

Abstract

Based on a new elasto-plastic constitutive model, this paper presents a soil–water coupled numerical prediction of the bearing capacity for shallow foundation constructed on Ballina soft clay for unconsolidated undrained (UU) and consolidated undrained (CU) conditions. This elasto-plastic constitutive Shanghai model has an advantage of describing the mechanical behaviour of over-consolidated and structured soil under different loading and drainage conditions, by using one set of material parameter. In this paper, the Shanghai model used for both UU and CU conditions has the same initial parameters obtained from laboratory test results. The loading conditions and consolidation stages vary based on construction details. The predicted bearing pressure-settlement responses for UU and CU, approves the field observation. The phenomenon of gaining the bearing capacity due to consolidation is captured and explained by the use of soil–water coupled numerical analysis with a new elasto-plastic model. The stress strain behaviour, stress paths and the decay of the structure of elements at different depths presented in this study, reveal the mechanism for the difference between UU and CU conditions to understand the foundation behaviour. Effect of the initial degree of soil structure on the bearing capacity is also addressed. Overall, this approach provides the integrated solution for the shallow foundation design problems under short and long-term loadings.     

山东南部近海秋季长蛇鲻相对资源量的分布及其影响因素

为探究长蛇鲻(Saurida elongate)的生态习性和分布规律,并为长蛇鲻资源的合理利用与养护提供科学依据,本文根据2016年秋季在山东南部近海进行的渔业资源与环境调查数据,分析了该海域长蛇鲻的分布特征,研究长蛇鲻成体、幼体的分布差异,并利用广义可加模型(GAM)研究其分布与生物因子和环境因子的关系。结果表明,长蛇鲻成体与幼体的分布存在差异,成体分布范围广,幼体主要分布在30 m等深线及以浅水域。GAM模型的结果表明,饵料生物、底层水温、水深和底层盐度是影响长蛇鲻相对资源量分布的主要因子。成体、幼体的分布与影响因子的关系差异极显著(P<0.01)。长蛇鲻成体的相对资源量随饵料生物和底层水温的增加表现为先上升后下降的趋势,而幼体呈现一致上升趋势;成体和幼体的相对资源量随水深增加均呈下降趋势;幼体相对资源量随底层盐度增加有明显上升趋势,而盐度对成体的影响不显著。本研究认为山东南部近海是长蛇鲻的重要栖息地,水温和盐度是成体和幼体分布差异的可能原因。     

后挖沟深度对深海海底管道屈曲影响数值分析

鉴于海底管道的服役水深越来越深,主要采用犁式挖沟机对预铺设于海床之上的海底管道采取后挖沟的方式将海底管道埋设于海床之下,以保护其免受不必要的损伤。针对后挖沟深度H是海底挖沟机的重要设计参数,也是影响管道悬跨的重要因素的问题,对SMD(UK)犁式挖沟机展开参数优化,确保作业过程中悬跨段管道在外部静水压力作用下,海底管道不会发生屈曲破坏。采用ABAQUS软件,分别建立了作业前和作业中两种工况下的悬跨模型,分析机械手对接触部分管道的损伤,结果显示,作业中的机械手对悬跨管道的损伤更大;同时,建立了作业中不同管径下,后挖沟深度对管道损伤的安全裕量关系曲线。进一步,结合作业中不同挖沟深度下的管跨段屈曲数值模型,对处于外部静水压力作用下的悬跨管的屈曲失效展开分析,结果显示,随着后挖沟深度的加大,不同管径下的悬跨段管道局部出现塑性压溃的临界压力值不断降低;管道外径的增大,降低了同一后挖沟深度下发生屈曲失效的压力值。最后,在后挖沟深度与外部静水压力组成的区域内,建立屈曲失效临界关系曲线,并划分出工作区和压溃区,为深海管道后挖沟埋管的施工提供工程参考。     

基于纵横波保幅分离的粘弹介质弹性波正演模拟

地下介质往往表现为粘弹特性,研究基于粘弹假设的数值模拟方法对于正确认识地震波的传播规律和提高地震勘探精度具有重要意义。波动方程正演过程中纵横波的保幅解耦是研究准确的粘弹介质中地震波传播机理的前提,基于散度和旋度算子的纵横波解耦方法会使波场的相位和振幅产生畸变,且解耦后的波场在极性反转位置上无法与分离前混合波场各分量对应。在散度和旋度算子上再做一次梯度和旋度运算的波场分离方法虽然能够克服上述缺陷,但存在保幅性差等问题。本文从粘弹介质中的一阶速度-应力方程出发,推导了矢量纵横波分离的波数域表达式,结合有限差分思路给出了其在空间域的求解方法。本文方法利用纵横波的传播速度对现有的矢量波场分离方法进行振幅校正,并将校正结果分别作为纵波与横波对时间的二阶偏导,实现了粘弹介质中的纵横波分离。模型试算结果表明,本文方法能够克服现有方法的缺陷,获得更具保幅性的波场分离结果。     

东印度洋海域最优深度基准面模型构建

利用东印度洋海域周边长期验潮站实测数据、TOPEX/Poseidon等系列卫星测高反演结果,评估了DTU10,EOT11a,FES2014,GOT4.8,OSU12和TPXO8六种全球潮汐模型精度,根据卫星测高结果给出了浅水分潮改正量和长周期分潮改正量的经验模型,又在此基础上分析并构建了研究区域精度最优的深度基准面模型。考虑到全球潮汐模型在近岸的影响因素及验潮站位置,将13个验潮站分成开阔海域与近海海域两类,与潮汐模型的对比,结果表明,DTU10和FES2014模型分别在开阔海域和近海海域精度最优。根据潮汐模型在不同分潮处的精度,如EOT11a模型在O1和K1分潮处精度较高,DTU10在N2,M2,S2和K2分潮处精度较高等,分别构建了开阔海域与近海海域的组合深度基准面模型,计算得知误差分别为11.33和20.95 cm,其精度显著提高。     

基于SWAT模型的森林分布不连续流域水源涵养量多时间尺度分析

为解决森林分布不连续流域森林水源涵养功能及其多时间尺度特征的定量评价问题,根据分布式水文模型（SWAT）的特点,提出了反映森林斑块空间分布的水文响应单元划分方法,以及基于水量平衡法的森林不连续分布流域森林水源涵养量计算公式。以东南沿海的晋江流域为例,构建了2006年土地利用条件下的日时间步长SWAT模型,统计分析了2002—2010年降水条件下森林水源涵养量的时空变化规律。结果表明：① 构建的晋江流域SWAT模型精度较高,面积阈值为零生成的水文响应单元比较准确地反映流域森林斑块分布,提出的森林水源涵养量计算公式适用于森林空间分布不连续流域森林水源涵养量的多时间尺度分析,为流域森林水源涵养功能评价提供了一个新的方法。② 晋江流域森林水源年涵养量271.41~565.25 mm;月涵养量-29.15~154.59 mm;日尺度的极端降水期皆为正值,极端枯水期都为负值。表明年际之间不存在森林水源涵养的蓄丰补枯调节作用,但在年内的部分月份得到体现,而日尺度的森林蓄丰补枯功能充分发挥。从而揭示了不同时间尺度森林水源涵养量及其蓄丰补枯功能的差异。     

基于MCR模型和DO指数的九江滨水城市生态安全网络构建

兼顾生态保护和经济增长的生态安全网络对引导滨水城市走可持续发展道路具有重要指导意义。本文以九江市为例,采用景观生态数据集和产业信息数据集,结合最小累积阻力模型（MCR）和连续空间的产业集聚测度指数（DO）构建了综合评价方法,分别对景观生态格局和经济生产空间进行分析,诊断二者的空间冲突确定战略节点并构建生态安全网络。结果表明：① 研究区包含重要生态源地29个,总面积为7323 km²;生态安全阻力高值区面积占39.69%,位于城市中部和东部连片区域,低值区则处于外围,且连通过渡区域较少,呈现空间上两极分化的“中心—外围”景观生态格局;② 经济生产空间临近水资源分布,呈现为小尺度集聚、大尺度分散的空间格局;主要产业集聚区的平均长度和数量均显示出重度污染行业>轻度污染行业>中度污染行业的空间关系;③ 识别出景观生态廊道总长685.57 km,选取了25个生态—经济战略节点,规划了18条总长424.53 km的重要绿带和26条总长662.46 km的一般绿带,共同构成了“蜂巢状”九江市生态安全网络格局。本文采用自然和经济条件相结合的综合分析视角,为生态安全格局的构建提供了多样化的实现途径。     

Burial and exhumation of the Hoh Xil Basin,northern Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from detrital (U-Th)/He ages

The uplift and associated exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau has been widely considered a key control of Cenozoic global cooling. The south-central parts of this plateau experienced rapid exhumation during the Cretaceous–Palaeocene periods. When and how the northern part was exhumed, however, remains controversial. The Hoh Xil Basin (HXB) is the largest late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary basin in the northern part, and it preserves the archives of the exhumation history. We present detrital apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He data from late Cretaceous–Cenozoic sedimentary rocks of the western and eastern HXB. These data, combined with regional geological constraints and interpreted with inverse and forward model of sediment deposition and burial reheating, suggest that the occurrence of ca. 4–2.7 km and ca. 4–2.3 km of vertical exhumation initiated at ca. 30–25 Ma and 40–35 Ma in the eastern and western HXB respectively. The initial differential exhumation of the eastern HXB and the western HXB might be controlled by the oblique subduction of the Qaidam block beneath the HXB. The initial exhumation timing in the northern Tibetan Plateau is younger than that in the south-central parts. This reveals an episodic exhumation of the Tibetan Plateau compared to models of synchronous Miocene exhumation of the entire plateau and the early Eocene exhumation of the northern Tibetan Plateau shortly after the India–Asia collision. One possible mechanism to account for outward growth is crustal shortening. A simple model of uplift and exhumation would predict a maximum of 0.8 km of surface uplift after upper crustal shortening during 30–27 Ma, which is insufficient to explain the high elevations currently observed. One way to increase elevation without changing exhumation rates and to decouple uplift from upper crustal shortening is through the combined effects of continental subduction, mantle lithosphere removal and magmatic inflation.