Do long lived seabirds reduce the negative effects of acute pollution on adult survival by skipping breeding? A study with European storm petrels (Hydrobates pelagicus) during the "Prestige" oil-spill

We estimated the survival probability of breeding European storm petrels before, during and after a severe oil-spill. We hypothesized that petrels might have deserted the breeding colony to maximize their own survival probability and we expected no major change on adult survival probabilities as a consequence of the spill. We used an information-theoretical approach and multi-model inference to assess the strength of the evidence in favour of different hypotheses.Evidence contained in the data clearly supported the non-effect of the spill on adult survival hypothesis while punctual impact of the spill on survival and expanded (3 years) impact alternatives received less support. The effect size of the spill on averaged survival estimates was negligible in every case. We suggest that petrels minimized the impact of acute pollution by not investing in reproduction. We suggest that short-medium term management actions after oil-spills and similar catastrophes should focus on ecosystem restoration.     

利用交互多模型的动态精密单点定位故障诊断算法

提出了一种基于相邻历元模型概率比的交互多模型方法,以提高故障诊断的效率,控制异常数据对定位结果的影响。首先,根据故障可能发生的情况建立交互多模型,以便对故障进行定位;然后,根据相邻历元的故障模型概率比对故障进行诊断,提高故障诊断的正确率;最后,根据抗差估计原理对故障进行处理,控制异常影响,提高动态精密单点定位的精度。以实测动态GPS数据为例,此模型可以提高故障诊断的正确率,控制异常影响,进而提高动态精密单点定位的精度。     

Experimental study of debris flow caused by domino failures of landslide dams

The formation of landslide dams is often induced by earthquakes in mountainous areas.The failure of a landslide dam typically results in catastrophic flash floods or debris flows downstream.Significant attention has been given to the processes and mechanisms involved in the failure of individual landslide dams.However,the processes leading to domino failures of multiple landslide dams remain unclear.In this study,experimental tests were carried out to investigate the domino failure of landslide dams and the consequent enlargement of downstream debris flows.Different blockage conditions were considered,including complete blockage,partial blockage and erodible bed（no blockage）.The mean velocity of the flow front was estimated by videos.Total stress transducers（TSTs）and Laser range finders（LRFs） were employed to measure the total stress and the depth of the flow front,respectively.Under a complete blockage pattern,a portion of the debris flow was trapped in front of each retained landslide dam before the latter collapsed completely.This was accompanied by a dramatic decrease in the mean velocity of the flow front.Conversely,under both partial blockage and erodible bed conditions,the mean velocity of the flow front increased gradually downward along the sloping channel.Domino failures of the landslide dams were triggered when a series of dams（complete blockage and partial blockage） were distributed along the flume.However,not all of these domino failures led to enlarged debris flows.The modes of dam failures have significant impacts on the enlargement of debris flows.Therefore,further research is necessary to understand the mechanisms of domino failures of landslide dams and their effects on the enlargement of debris flows.     

Probabilistic stability evaluation for wildlife-damaged earth dams: a Bayesian approach

ABSTRACT

There is a growing body of evidence confirming the detrimental effects of invasive wildlife activities on the performance and – ultimately – the safety of earth dams and levee systems. Modelling cavities and burrows dug by animals in earth structures is rather cumbersome due to their geometrical complexity and randomness. This study proposes the use of the probabilistic approach to estimate the risk associated with the presence of wildlife chambers in an arbitrary dam section. Two dimensional limit equilibrium slope stability analyses were conducted for a homogeneous silty sand dam. The animal chambers were modelled as idealised highly permeable circles with a near-zero strength. Uncertainty in the dam material was introduced using the Monte-Carlo technique to randomise the input parameters. The conditional probability of failure, P(F|C), was spatially evaluated by manual perturbations of chamber locations within the dam section. Using the Bayesian approach, the section was accordingly mapped into three stability zones: “safe”, “marginally safe” and “likely to fail” based on P(F|C) values associated with the chamber location. For this very complex problem, the probabilistic handling seems to provide a mathematically normalised basis for risk assessment in lieu of the classical belief-based single-value factor of safety (FoS).     

Faulting and slope failures in surface coal mining—some examples from North East England

The shallow terrestrial Coal Measures strata of North East England have been faulted and tectonised by geological events (orogenies), and are divided by faulting and the River Tyne valley into the Northumberl and and Durham coalfields. The type of faulting is almost exclusively normal faulting, with close spacings and complex geometries being prevalent. These coalfields are generally overlain by glacial deposits. Surface coal mining, as a mechanised operation, has been carried out in this region for about the last 60 years. The earliest workings were on a relatively small scale, and faulting and geologically complex ground was avoided as far as possible; but with time, the introduction of progressively larger excavation plant has led to ever larger and deeper surface mines, and working in faulted ground has become commonplace. Detailed ground investigations by drilling and geophysical logging are carried out to prove the geological structure. The gradient of bedding dips usually determines whether the coal should be mined by opencast dip or strike cuts, or by open-pit working, but the choice of excavation face alignments with respect to faulting can be critical. Faces aligned near parallel with faults tend to suffer failures, whereas faces aligned near perpendicular to faults tend to be stable. The types of slope instabilities which are associated with normal faulting comprise planar failures (including bi-planar and multi-planar), toppling failures, tetrahedral wedge failures and complex endwall failures. Endwalls formed against faults are especially likely to become unstable, and can become very problematic if located close to mining area boundaries where important natural or infrastructure features may exist. Several case studies are included to illustrate these points.     

The importance of breaching as a mechanism of subaqueous slope failure in fine sand

Large bank failures, comprising up to 10⁶ m³ of sediment, are common features along steep channel banks in estuaries and large rivers that consist of clean, fine sands, and are mostly assumed to be generated by sudden liquefaction of large masses of very loosely packed sand. Another less commonly recognized type of failure is manifested by the gradual retrogression of a very steep wall, steeper than the angle-of-repose. Instead of the voluminous surging plastic sediment-water flow, or hyperconcentrated density flow (sensu Mulder & Alexander, 2001 ) generated by liquefaction, this type of failure, known as breaching by dredging companies and hydraulic engineers, produces a sustained quasi-steady, turbidity current. To date, sedimentologists have not recognized the process of breaching as such. In this paper, it is suggested that breaching may be the origin of many thick, massive sand layers known from ancient deposits from various environments, notably in some turbidite successions. Possible differences in the sedimentary structure of the deposits produced by breach failures vs. liquefaction slope failures (=liquefaction flow slides) can be deduced from a knowledge of the sediment transport processes initiated by the failure. A field study is presented on some poorly structured beds in the Eocene Vlierzele Sands in Belgium, which are supposed to have originated from liquefaction failures, but are reinterpreted to be the products of breaching. It is postulated that the local steep slope disturbance required to initiate an active breach can be produced by a small liquefaction slope failure (=liquefaction flow slide failure) or local erosion by river or tidal channel flow at the initial stage of the failure event.     

A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures

It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic, geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and, of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature, defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4–5, 1994; July 7–8, 1996; April 27–30, 2000; October 13–16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity–duration plot, the critical limit is described by the equation: I=19D^−0.50 (where I=rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D=rainfall duration expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI–D diagram the triggering thresholds are given by the equations NI=0.76D^−0.33 and NI=4.62D^−0.79 (where NI=normalised intensity with respect to the annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA]×100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is discussed. Finally, the diagram NI–NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression: NI=−0.09ln[NCR]+0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA]×100). The application of the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslide-prone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is described.     

U.S. Bank Failures and Regional Economic Structure*

U.S. commercial bank failures approached historically high levels in the 1980s. The collapse of such institutions can have severe impacts on local economies, disrupting the supply of available investment credit. This paper situates bank failures within the broader transformation of global capitalism in the late 20th century. Next, it reviews the causes of bank insolvency, including mismanagement, deregulation, the glutted commercial real estate market, and depressed agricultural and petroleum-dependent local economies. It then illustrates multiple aspects of the spatial distribution of bank failures. A pooled time-series regression analysis, using primary causal variables as well as location quotients of state output in four industrial sectors, indicates that with the vital exception of petroleum, and to a lesser extent services, regional economic structure is not strongly related to bank failures. This finding likely reflects the structural and spatial transformation of the industry as it adapted to the highly competitive conditions of the last decade.