笼养条件下秃鹫繁殖期的行为日节律及时间分配的观察研究

2012年3～5月,采用直接瞬时扫描法和间接监控器摄像相结合的方式,对北京市野生动物救护中心顺义饲养繁育基地的一对秃鹫的繁殖行为的时间分配和活动规律进行了研究,结果显示:秃鹫在警戒、理羽、吃食、交配、孵化等行为存在着明显的节律性,警戒、理羽行为在行为比例中较高,警戒行为占绝对优势。取食行为多发生在上午的中间阶段,孵化行为不间断、并且轮流孵化幼鸟。孵化期内雌、雄个体的行为差异不大,秃鹫发情期各种行为所占的比例存在着一定的性别差异。     

A large landslide event in a post‐glacial landscape: rethinking glacial legacy

Threlkeld Knotts (c. 500 m above sea level) in the English Lake District has hitherto been considered to be a glacially‐modified intrusion of microgranite. However, its surface features are incompatible with glacial modification; neither can these nor the subsurface structures revealed by ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) be explained by post‐glacial subaerial processes acting on a glacially‐modified microgranite intrusion. Here we re‐interpret Threlkeld Knotts as a very large post‐glacial landslide involving the microgranite, with an estimated volume of about 4 × 10⁷ m³. This interpretation is tested against published and recent information on the geology of the site, the glacial geomorphic history of the area and newly‐acquired GPR data. More than 60 large post‐Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) rock–slope failures have significantly modified the glaciated landscape of the Lake District; this is one of the largest. Recognition of this major landslide deposit in such a well‐studied environment highlights the need to continuously re‐examine landscapes in the light of increasing knowledge of geomorphic processes and with available technology in currently active or de‐glaciating environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

"接触问题"引起的隧道病害分析

衬砌裂损是隧道病害中常见的问题，也是严重威胁结构安全的一个重要因素。除了温度变化、水害、衬砌本身的强度和厚度不足以及混凝土耐久性降低外，隧道围岩压力变化是衬砌产生裂损直至破坏的主要原因。文章针对铁路运营隧道病害的检测结果，对衬砌背后空洞进行平面弹塑性计算分析，得出不同位置、不同大小的空洞以及空洞群对结构各截面安全系数影响的系统认识，明确提出衬砌结构与围岩结合的不紧密性是恶化衬砌受力条件、造成围岩进一步松动、进而造成衬砌裂损的一个重要原因。文章还对直墙式及曲墙武衬砌所受到的不同影响进行了比较分析。认为曲墙武衬砌拱部结构能较好地将内力传递给边墙，由边墙部分承受较大的水平抗力，优化了整体结构的受力，从而降低背后空洞对衬砌结构的影响。通过对计算结果的系统分析和研究，合理解释了实际检测中的问题。     

Alluvial deposits of a mud-dominated stream: the Red River, Manitoba, Canada

Abstract The Red River, Manitoba, is a mud‐dominated, meandering stream that occupies a shallow valley eroded into a clay plain. The valley‐bottom alluvium is the product of incision and lateral migration of river meanders. As revealed by a transect of five boreholes located across the floodplain at each of two successive river meanders, the alluvial deposits range from about 15 to 22 m thick and are composed primarily of silt. Sedimentary structures in the cores are weakly defined and consist mostly of beds of massive silt, thick (>0·4 m) massive silt and disturbed silt. Interlaminated sand and silt, and sand beds form relatively minor deposits, principally within the lower half of the alluvium, and thin beds of medium‐coarse sand and pea gravel can be present locally within the lower metre of the alluvium. The alluvium is interpreted to consist of overbank deposits from 0 to 2–3 m depth, oblique accretion deposits from 2–3 to 8–12 m depth and oblique accretion and/or channel deposits from 8–12 m to the base of the sequence. The massive bedding within the oblique accretion deposits is interpreted to represent the remnants of couplet deposits that were initially composed of interbedded, muddy silt and sand‐sized silt aggregates, as is consistent with the contemporary bank sedimentation. The post‐depositional disintegration and/or compaction of the aggregates has caused the loss of the sand‐sized texture. The disturbed silt beds are interpreted as slump structures caused by large‐scale rotational failures along the convex banks. Overall, the Red River represents a portion of a continuum of muddy, fine‐grained streams; where the alluvium lacks a distinct coarse unit, oblique accretion deposits form a majority of the floodplain, and large‐scale slump features are present.     

Why and when it is useful to publish and share inconclusive results and failures: reply to “Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology”*

We thank van Emmerik et al. for their discussion of our opinion paper. We do not fully agree that publication of negative results will be very effective in promoting experimental hydrology. Instead, we think that experimental hydrology is considered to be more risky than modelling studies because of difficulties in publishing inconclusive results and the potential for failure.     

Wave dispersion study for tsunami propagation in the Sea of Marmara

In this paper the aim is to investigate whether there are differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions on tsunami propagation. For this purpose, two numerical models of tsunami propagation are compared. One of these numerical models is a nondispersive model that uses Saint Venant equations and the other is a dispersive model that uses Boussinesq equations. The tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure (SMF) which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined. An analytical solution considering wave dispersion is developed for obtaining near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure. Numerical modeling is used at the sea surface from the common boundary called as liquid boundary with incident waves up to the coastal regions to get the tsunami amplitudes. The output of the analytical model is taken as the disturbances for the numerical method. In the numerical solutions TELEMAC-2D software system is used for both dispersive and nondispersive modeling. The results of the dispersive and nondispersive models are compared to each other. Both temporal and spatial differences in the amplitudes and wave shapes are examined. The obtained results demonstrate that there are no noticeable differences between the dispersion and non-dispersion solutions except some special cases and some special landslide velocities.     

Estimation of potential failure risks in a mine slope using indicator kriging

Indicator kriging has been applied to the study of failure mechanisms in a mine slope in Minas Gerais, Brazil, to estimate potential failure risks in limited areas along this slope. Timbopeba Mine, Vale Company, is an open pit iron mine situated in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero, a very important mining district in Minas Gerais. A slope excavated in quartzite with a maximum height of 200 m at the time of this study, has presented many failure problems involving the sliding of blocks formed by discontinuities. These blocks are of limited size in comparison to the dimensions of the overall slope. They appear along the entire slope, wherever discontinuity orientations have led to the kinematic feasibility of these blocks. Geostatistics permits the estimation of local failure probability distributions associated to these local failures, which would not be possible with traditional statistical models. The geostatistical method employed in this study, indicator kriging, is quite suitable because it is unnecessary to assume a particular global distribution of the phenomena being modeled. The model was used for locating areas with a great tendency for sliding failure, as it considers the local spatial variability of discontinuity orientations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中尺度暴雨集合预报系统研发中的初值扰动试验

针对2006年5月24～25日一次暴雨过程, 通过一系列初值扰动试验探讨实际业务中建立集合预报系统的方法。运用45 km的WRF模式构建一个11个成员的集合预报系统来比较分析不同的扰动方案、 扰动的空间结构和扰动振幅对集合预报的影响, 结果表明： （1）初值扰动的空间结构对暴雨集合预报的离散度影响很关键, 而扰动振幅的影响却居次要地位。具有动力学结构的孵化扰动明显优于随机扰动。（2）集合预报比单一控制预报提供了更有价值的预报信息。例如在该个例控制预报中漏报的湖北监利强降水中心, 在集合预报中有20%的概率, 并且实况被包含在集合预报的预报范围之中。集合平均预报也明显优于控制预报\.例如矫正了在控制预报中明显虚报的鄂东北的大暴雨中心, 且集合平均预报的暴雨中心落在实际观测暴雨中心的附近。（3）集合离散度较好地反映了实际降水过程的可预报性。例如应用孵化扰动, 其离散度的空间结构同降水预报误差的空间分布大致对应。     

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea: Evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10-20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.     

各种类型河蟹育苗用水的水质分析

近几年,河蟹人工育苗已成为我省沿海种苗培育单位的重要产业 ,随着育苗规模的不断扩大及所带来的可观经济效益,各地又因地制宜发展起地下海水、浓缩海水的育苗生产,为搞清这几种育苗水体的水质特点 ,作者对这几种水体进行了分析检测,以服务于生产 ,为河蟹育苗的健康发展提供科学依据。１工作内容和方法１．１采样点自然海水采于营口市老边区三道沟和盘锦市二界沟;浓缩海水采于营口市青石岭育苗室及营口盐 　种型苗水ｐ ＣＤ营盐含量Ｔａｂ .1　ｐＨ ,ＣＯＤａｎｄｎｕｔｒｉｔｉｏｎｓａｌｔｏｆｅｖｅｒｙｋｉｎｄｏｆｂｒｅｅｄｉｎｇｗａ…