基于非期望产出和门槛回归模型的环渤海地区生态效率

利用基于非期望产出的SBM模型测算2005-2015年环渤海地区44个城市的生态效率,刻画其时空演化特征,并运用面板门槛回归模型分析其影响因素。研究表明：①未考虑非期望产出的环渤海地区生态效率值总体被高估,说明经济活动的非期望产出确实降低了实际经济价值,考虑非期望产出具有科学性、合理性。②2005-2010年,生态效率类型整体呈现“进化”特征;2010-2015年,整体呈现暂时性“退化”特征;可能与经济发展方式转变和驱动力转换有关。③各地区生态效率各类型数量和分布特征存在省际差异性和非均衡性,相同生态效率水平类型地区空间集聚特征显著。④科技水平、城市规模、对外开放、环境规制对地区生态效率均表现出双门槛特征,产业结构等对地区生态效率产生重要影响;提高科技吸收再创新能力、联防治污能力和人口素质,强化对外开放的“技术效应”,将增强各门槛变量对环渤海地区生态效率的促进作用;同时优化产业结构、加强信息化建设亦是提高该地区生态效率的重要举措。     

1985年来环渤海地区港口体系位序—规模分布及作用机制

运用位序—规模法则与核密度方法,以近30年来各港口货物吞吐量及集装箱吞吐量为主要指标,刻画环渤海地区港口体系的规模分布特征,分析其作用机制。结果表明：① 总体看,环渤海地区港口体系具有一定位序—规模分布特征,但不同阶段、不同规模的港口在位序分布上出现明显分化,港口区域化特征愈发明显。② 港口货物吞吐量位序—规模分布的无标度区数量先增后减,最终由单分形变为双分形结构。区域港口体系经历了高位序平衡发展、中小港口突破、大中小港口差异化发展、枢纽港竞合下的港口融合四个阶段。港口集装箱吞吐量位序—规模分布的变化轨迹呈现外接式分割发展、枢纽港形成及新兴港口融入、支线港大型化和集装箱网络整合四个阶段。两者在发展节点上基本吻合;港口集中化与分散化交织进行,货物总吞吐量的分散化早于集装箱运输,分散趋势较为明显。③ 环渤海地区港口体系位序—规模演化的作用机制突出表现为自然经济地理约束下的大港口主导作用明显、区域化和竞争压力倒逼港口合作并推动港口实现自组织协调、能源输出特征及转型推动新兴港口快速成长三方面。     

渤海冬季风生环流的年际变化特征及机制分析

为探究渤海冬季风生环流的年际变化及机制,在近35年NCEP CFSR大气强迫下,利用ROMS海洋模式对渤海冬季流场进行了高分辨率的数值模拟。模式结果基本重现了已知的渤海冬季风生环流的主要特征。渤海冬季深度平均流场的EOF结果显示:首先,第一模态中风向的改变引起了一个环绕整个渤海的环流结构变化;其次,第二模态反映了渤海冬季环流存在的线性增强趋势与风场增强有关,尤其在1995年之后。从模式结果中发现,风场对渤海冬季流场存在的年际变化起到重要作用,风向的偏转对环流年际特征的影响强于风速变化。     

渤海中部沉积物铅来源的同位素示踪

本研究对渤海中部表层和柱状沉积物中Pb的含量和同位素进行了分析,研究了其时空分布规律,并探讨了其物质来源。结果表明,表层沉积物中Pb的含量为14.54×10-6~59.42×10-6,其含量在渤海湾近岸、黄河口附近、研究区的东北部较高,而在研究区的中部和渤海湾北部含量较低;Pb同位素207Pb/206Pb的值为0.8341~0.8489,208Pb/206Pb的值为2.0828~2.0980。岩心沉积物中Pb含量、同位素组成与表层沉积物相似,整体上较为稳定,但在1990s以来呈现增大的趋势。渤海中部沉积物中Pb以自然来源为主,黄河沉积物是其主要物质来源,但渤海湾北端则与滦河源物质或沿岸侵蚀相关;人类活动影响主要出现在1990s以后,与中国含Pb矿石的燃烧等工业活动相关,但影响微弱,仅在黄河口西北近岸海域、渤海湾等个别站位得到体现。     

Logging identification and characteristic analysis of marine–continental transitional organic-rich shale in the Carboniferous-Permian strata,Bohai Bay Basin

Currently, global shale gas exploration and exploitation are focused on marine shale. Recently, major shale gas-oil breakthroughs have been made within continental and marine–continental transitional shale in China. This study will show how transitional shale is of great importance. Based on geological field surveys, core observations, thin section analysis, organic geochemistry and X-ray diffraction, we systematically studied the basic geological characteristics (including lithology, mineral composition, and organic geochemistry) of this transitional shale. By comparative analysis of well logging data from 260 wells in the Taiyuan–Shanxi shale, we will show that these methods are effective for identifying organic-rich shale from conventional well logs and determining its thickness distribution in the Carboniferous–Permian strata of the Taiyuan–Shanxi transitional coal-bearing formation.The results indicate that the Taiyuan–Shanxi shale has a high TOC (most 2%–4%) and that the lithology is primarily carbonaceous shale with type Ⅱ₂-Ⅲ kerogens. The high thermal maturation (Ro ≥ 1.1%) favors the generation of gas. The mineral components primarily include clay minerals, quartz, and plagioclase with a moderate brittle mineral content (47 wt.%) and high clay mineral content (51 wt.%) dominated by kaolinite (43%) and mixed-layer illite-smectite (31%). The transitional organic-rich shale on conventional log curves is generally characterized by higher gamma ray (GR), neutron porosity (CNL), acoustic travel time (AC), resistivity (R_t), potassium (K), and uranium (U) readings and a lower density (DEN), photoelectric absorption index (PE) and thorium-uranium ratio (TH/U). After analyzing the log response characteristics of the organic-rich shale, the most sensitive logging curves (such as CNL, AC, DEN, PE and U) were optimized to conduct logging overlays and to construct cross-plots to qualitatively identify organic-rich shale. The identified organic-rich shale amalgamates in the middle-upper member of the Taiyuan Formation and the lower member of the Shanxi Formation consistent with the results of the TOC analysis and practical gas logging. Based on the qualitative evaluation methods of the modified △LogR and a multivariate linear regression model, we calculated the TOC of shale wells in the Taiyuan–Shanxi formation. From this we calculated the characteristic values of organic-rich shale thickness. The results indicate that organic-rich shale in the Taiyuan formation is thicker than that in the Shanxi formation. Additionally, the thickness of organic-rich shale within lagoons and deep reed swamp facies are much thicker (25–35 m and 40–80 m) than other structural profile types, whereas their lateral distribution is less than that of marine shale. The relatively small continuous thickness of the single shale layer and high clay content may have negative effects for developing the shale gas potential.     

Sequence stratigraphy and importance of syndepositional structural slope-break for architecture of Paleogene syn-rift lacustrine strata,Bohai Bay Basin,E. China

Sequence stratigraphy and syndepositional structural slope-break zones define the architecture of the Paleogene syn-rift, lacustrine succession in eastern China's Bohai Bay Basin. Jiyang, Huanghua and Liaohe subbasins are of particular interest and were our primary research objectives. Interpretation of 3D seismic data, well logs and cores reveals: One first-order sequence, 4 second-order sequences, and ten to thirteen third-order sequences were identified on the basis of the tectonic evolution, lithologic assemblage and unconformities in the subbasins of Bohai Bay Basin. Three types of syndepositional paleo-structure styles are recognized in this basin. They are identified as fault controlled, slope-break zone; flexure controlled, slope-break zone; and gentle slope.The three active structural styles affect the sequence stratigraphy. Distinct third-order sequences, within second-order sequences, have variable systems tract architecture due to structuring effects during tectonic episodes. Second-order sequences 1 and 2 were formed during rifting episodes 1 and 2. The development of the third-order sequences within these 2 second-order sequences was controlled by the active NW and NE oriented fault controlled, slope-break zones. Second-order sequence 3 formed during rifting episode 3, the most intense extensional faulting of the basin. Two types of distinctive lacustrine depositional sequence were formed during rifting episode 3: one was developed in an active fault controlled, slope-break zone, the other in an active flexure controlled, slope-break zone. Second-order sequence 4 was formed during the fourth episode of rifting. Syndepositional, fault- and flexure-controlled slope-break zones developed in the subsidence center (shore to offshore areas) of the basin and controlled the architecture of third-order sequences in a way similar to that in second-order sequence 3. Sequences in the gentle slope and syndepositional, flexure controlled slope-break zones were developed in subaerial region.Distribution of lowstand sandbodies was controlled primarily by active structuring on the slope-break zones, and these sandbodies were deposited downdip of the slope-break zones. Sand bodies within lowstand systems tracts have good reservoir quality, and are usually sealed by the shale sediments of the subsequent transgressive systems tract. They are favorable plays for stratigraphic trap exploration.     

渤海水质监测站位优化研究

以2000年-2010年无机氮、活性磷酸盐和化学需氧量这三个主要污染因子趋势性监测数据为基础,采用水质空间稳定性评价、监测站位时空重要性评价以及站位网络优化设计等技术方法,对渤海2010年原有的海洋环境趋势性水质监测站位进行优化调整,为渤海海域水质的时空变化趋势评价,提供更为有效、客观的支撑。     

春季和夏季渤海湾近岸海域大型砂壳纤毛虫的群落结构

为了解渤海湾砂壳纤毛虫丰度、生物量及种类组成,于2011年春季和夏季在渤海湾天津近岸海域进行砂壳纤毛虫群落的采样调查。两个季节砂壳纤毛虫丰度、生物量、优势种及群落结构均有显著的不同。春季砂壳纤毛虫丰度的范围为0~1608个/L,生物量为0.00~20.03μg/L;夏季砂壳纤毛虫丰度的范围为2~313个/L,生物量为0.03~4.04μg/L。共鉴定出砂壳纤毛虫5属15种,其中拟铃虫属(Tintinnopsis)种类最多。春季的主要优势种为运动类铃虫(Codonellopsis mobilis,优势度为0.79),夏季的主要优势种为斯氏拟铃虫(Tintinnopsis schotti,优势度为0.28)和诺氏薄铃虫(Leprotintinnus nordqvisti,优势度为0.28)。春季砂壳纤毛虫群落的物种丰富度、Shannon指数和Pielou指数均明显低于夏季。     

渤、黄、东海8个主要分潮的数值模拟研究

应用MIKE数值模拟软件,采用无结构三角形网格,建立一套计算区域包括整个渤海、黄海、东海以及东海大陆架和琉球群岛的高分辨率数值模型,考虑了实际水深和岸线,外海开边界采用西北太平洋大模型结果的潮位提供,模拟了东中国海潮波的波动过程,对潮波垂直运动过程进行调和分析,得到了渤海、黄海、东海的M2,S2,K1,O1以及N2,K2,P1,Q1八个主要分潮的传播和分布特征。利用中国沿海14个潮位站的调和常数对模型结果进行了验证,验证结果显示模型较为准确可靠。研究结果表明:4个主要半日潮(全日潮)在渤、黄、东海的传播情形基本相似,即潮波在渤海、黄海、东海沿岸的传播性质上类似沿岸开尔文波的传播形态,并且成功再现了计算海域的4个半日分潮无潮点和2个全日分潮无潮点。全日潮振幅各无潮点附近振幅最小,而海湾的波腹区振幅最大,东海潮差呈现近岸方向振幅大、离岸方向振幅小,浙闽沿海振幅也较大,黄海振幅相对较小,渤海振幅在辽东湾和渤海湾顶最大,两个无潮点周边振幅较小。     

海河流域主要河口闸下通道风暴潮增水研究

建立东海-黄海-渤海大范围风暴潮二维数学模型,对9216台风风暴潮过程进行模拟,分析渤海湾造陆工程前后风暴潮增水对海河流域主要河口(海河口、永定新河口和独流减河口)闸下区域最高潮位的影响,并探讨有效降低河口闸下通道内风暴潮潮位的开发方式。研究表明:渤海湾围填海工程实施后,闸下通道内维持自然地形时,通道内最高潮位高于工程前;闸下通道实施地形开挖后,通道内最高潮位依然高于工程前,但较自然地形条件下抬高幅值有所减小。闸下通道结合开发建设港池航道等工程实施地形开挖,使得通道内水深增加,可降低通道内风暴潮增水幅度。