Geophysical flows under location uncertainty,Part II Quasi-geostrophy and efficient ensemble spreading

Models under location uncertainty are derived assuming that a component of the velocity is uncorrelated in time. The material derivative is accordingly modified to include an advection correction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic diffusion terms and a multiplicative noise contribution. In this paper, simplified geophysical dynamics are derived from a Boussinesq model under location uncertainty. Invoking usual scaling approximations and a moderate influence of the subgrid terms, stochastic formulations are obtained for the stratified Quasi-Geostrophy and the Surface Quasi-Geostrophy models. Based on numerical simulations, benefits of the proposed stochastic formalism are demonstrated. A single realization of models under location uncertainty can restore small-scale structures. An ensemble of realizations further helps to assess model error prediction and outperforms perturbed deterministic models by one order of magnitude. Such a high uncertainty quantification skill is of primary interests for assimilation ensemble methods. MATLAB^® code examples are available online.     

不同对流参数化方案试验中凝结加热的特征及对暴雨中尺度模拟结果的影响

使用20 km分辨率的MM5模式,分别选用KUO,GRELL,KAIN-FRITSCH和BETTS-MILLER(以下简称KU,GR,KF和BM)等4种不同对流参数化方案,对1996年8月3~4日石家庄特大暴雨过程作数值模拟试验,分析比较了4个不同试验中网格尺度(显式方案)和次网格尺度(对流参数化方案)凝结加热的水平、垂直分布和时变特征;研究探讨了凝结加热分布及差异对暴雨中尺度模拟结果的可能影响。分析显示,暴雨过程中,4个不同对流参数化方案试验所得到的次网格尺度凝结加热基本都呈单峰特征、加热峰值在对流层中层,但加热层厚度和强度在不同试验间存在差别;4个试验的网格尺度凝结加热的垂直范围表现出较好的一致性,加热重心位于对流层低层,但加热强度仍有所不同;GR和KF及BM试验的总凝结加热率的垂直分布特征主要受其网格尺度凝结加热率特征的影响、加热重心在对流层低层,而KU试验的总凝结加热率的垂直分布特征由其次网格尺度凝结加热率特征所决定、加热重心在对流层中层。研究表明,尽管4个试验在暴雨期间总凝结加热的垂直分布差异并不显著,但对暴雨中尺度模拟的影响却不能忽视。凝结加热的分布特征及演变直接影响与暴雨发生发展密切关联的物理量场的中尺度结构和演变;凝结加热对暴雨中尺度的影响具有连锁性,由加热差异波及局部环流细致结构和强度及其变化的差异,进而影响暴雨发生发展的细致特征。在20 km或更高一些分辨率的条件下,对于描述温带/中纬度暴雨的发展和结构,选用KF方案得到的模拟结果可能更具物理合理性;而KU方案模拟结果容易出现格点气柱的水汽和温度被过量调整的不合理情况。要得到一个可信的中尺度模拟结果,对降水模拟结果进行细化特征的验证、特别是随时间演变特征的验证分析是非常重要的,因为降水的细致演变特征与凝结加热及与之相联系的物理量场的中尺度演变特征密切关联。     

Application of a semi-spectral cloud water parameterization to cooling tower plumes simulations

In order to simulate the plume produced by large natural draft cooling towers, a semi-spectral warm cloud parameterization has been implemented in an anelastic and non-hydrostatic 3D micro-scale meteorological code. The model results are compared to observations from a detailed field experiment carried out in 1980 at Bugey (location of an electrical nuclear power plant in the Rhône valley in East Central France) including airborne dynamical and microphysical measurements. Although we observe a slight overestimation of the liquid-water content, the results are satisfactory for all the 15 different cases simulated, which include different meteorological conditions ranging from low wind speed and convective conditions in clear sky to high wind and very cloudy. Such parameterization, which includes semi-spectral determination for droplet spectra, seems to be promising to describe plume interaction with atmosphere especially for aerosols and cloud droplets.     

基于CWRF的中国近海热带气旋集合模拟及其对物理参数化方案的敏感性研究

为评估CWRF模式的降尺度能力和其热带气旋模拟对物理参数化方案的敏感性,本文利用ERI再分析资料驱动CWRF在30km网格上对1982-2016年中国近海热带气旋开展了一次集合模拟.结果表明:CWRF与ERI均能模拟出热带气旋的季节变化和年际变化形势且均存在低估,但相较ERI,CWRF的降尺度技术和集合模拟可以再现更多...     

EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION ON THE MONTHLY MEAN SIMULATION

Treatments of the boundary layer in a five-layer primitive equation model with mixed P—σcoordinates are improved by incorporating similarity theory,which is widely used at present.Twokinds of parameterization schemes of the boundary layer are designed,and static test and numericalsimulation are performed.It is found that the iterative scheme can fairly improve the simulation ofthe mean climate field in July.The abnormally strong heat low over the Tibetan Plateau isweakened to some extent.     

提高月预报业务水平的动力相似集合方法

针对基于大气环流模式的月预报问题,提出了一种能有效减小预报误差并提高预报技巧的动力相似集合预报新方法。该方法着眼于动力模式与统计经验的内在结合,在模式积分过程中通过提取大气环流历史相似性信息,对模式误差进行参数化处理,形成多个时变的相似强迫量来扰动生成预报的集合成员。将这一集合新方法应用到中国国家气候中心业务大气环流模式(BCC AGCM1.0),一组10 a准业务环境下回报试验结果显示,相比于业务集合预报,动力相似集合预报方法能有效改进模式对于大气环流的纬向平均、超长波和长波预报,从而有效提高了月平均环流预报技巧(几乎达到业务可用标准)和逐日环流预报技巧,并显著降低了预报误差,合理增加集合离散度,使二者配置关系得以改善,有望在业务预报中应用。     

Biogeochemical characteristics of the Hetai goldfield, Guangdong Province, China

In the Hetai goldfield, Guangdong Province, China, samples including rocks, soils and leaves of four plants (Pinus massoniana, Rhodomyrms tomenlosa, D. linearis var. dichotoma and Embelia laeta) collected from the gold mineralization zone and the background area were analyzed for Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, Zn, Hg, As and physiological parameters. The objective of this investigation is to study the geochemical and biogeochemical characteristics of studied plants, aiming at biogeochemical methods in Au exploration. The goldfield region shows geochemical and biogeochemical anomalies. Abundances of Au in rocks, soils, plants and the leaf pigments in the mineralized area are much higher than those in the surrounding region. The plants display unhealthy physiological and ecological characteristics in the Hetai goldfield area. The cell structures of the goldfield plants were anomalous and aberrant, and there were many nano-metal particles diffused in mitochondria and chloroplasts. Macro- and microscopic evidences of the vegetation in the goldfield areas are distinctly different from the background regions. The strongly anomalies in responses to Au are profound in further geochemical and botanic exploration studies.     

Wave-dependence of friction velocity,roughness length,and drag coefficient over coastal and open water surfaces by using three databases

The parameterization of friction velocity, roughness length, and the drag coefficient over coastal zones and open water surfaces enables us to better understand the physical processes of air-water interaction. In context of measurements from the Humidity Exchange over the Sea Main Experiment (HEXMAX), we recently proposed wave-parameter dependent approaches to sea surface friction velocity and the aerodynamic roughness by using the dimensional analysis method. To extend the application of these approaches to a range of natural surface conditions, the present study is to assess this approach by using both coastal shallow (RASEX) and open water surface measurements (Lake Ontario and Grand Banks ERS-1 SAR) where wind speeds were greater than 6.44 m s^-1. Friction velocities, the surface aerodynamic roughness, and the neutral drag coefficient estimated by these approaches under moderate wind conditions were compared with the measurements mentioned above. Results showed that the coefficients in these approaches for coastal shallow water surface differ from those for open water surfaces, and that the aerodynamic roughness length in terms of wave age or significant wave height should be treated differently for coastal shallow and open water surfaces.     

大气物理过程方案对PM2.5预报的敏感性试验

利用WRF-Chem大气化学模式,选择2015年12月中旬发生在我国的大范围空气污染过程,在采用同样化学方案条件下,针对模式中不同物理过程及其参数化方案开展了地面PM_(2.5)预报的敏感性试验。结果表明:该模式能较好展示此次PM_(2.5)污染的演变过程,与实况也较接近,但对青海经宁夏至内蒙的PM_(2.5)高值区出现了漏报现象,这可能是模式外边界未对污染物做更新所致。对地面PM_(2.5)的预报,各物理过程的敏感度不同,边界层(含近地面层)过程的影响要明显大于积云对流及微物理过程的影响,不同的参数化方案会造成不同的预报误差。边界层过程QNSE和与其配套的近地面层方案的组合是预报的较佳组合;而TEMF和与其配套的组合以及ACM2和Pleim-X的组合则不佳。合理的物理过程参数化方案有助于提高PM_(2.5)预报质量。模式预报对排放源也有适应过程,其Spin-up时间较气象要素长。