基于可靠度的工程风险决策初探

客观存在的诸多不确定性因素,使得工程系统的规划和设计不可避免地存在着风险。通过运用结构可靠度计算的优化算法,将工程结构的风险率计算转化为对结构可靠指标的计算,给出了基于可靠性理论的决策分析方法和两个算例,算例1以挡土墙设计为例,阐述了决策分析方法的有效性和实用性。算例2对南水北调中线工程穿黄方案的选择问题,给出了一个简单的决策模式。     

海草床食物链有机碳传递过程的研究进展

海草床是重要的近海生态系统,生产力极高,可为海洋动物提供良好的栖息地和丰富的有机碳食源;人类活动引起近岸海域的富营养化,可能会改变海草床有机碳源组成和性质,进而影响植食动物和次级消费者的摄食过程及其食物链能量传递效率,从而影响海草床的生物资源产出功能。归纳总结了国内外海草床食物链碳传递过程各方面的研究进展,主要包括:①海草床有机碳源组成及食源贡献;②海草床初级消费者对有机碳源的摄食;③海草床食物网营养级结构及其能量传递;④富营养化对海草床有机碳源组分结构及其成分的影响;⑤海草床食物链能量传递效率对富营养化的响应。在此基础上,提出了未来的研究重点:①联合运用总有机物的稳定同位素比值法、脂肪酸标志法和特定化合物稳定同位素分析方法,加强定量研究海草床各有机碳源的贡献、食物网营养结构图谱、关键碳流途径及其季节性变化规律;探究关键消费者成体和幼体的有机碳源差异,弄清生长阶段的食性转化过程。②结合野外观测、原位围隔实验和室内模拟实验,深入探讨富营养化对海草床有机碳源组成(海草与附生藻类等)及其化学成分(营养质量和次生化合物)的影响,海草等初级生产者成分变化对植食动物和次级消费者摄食过程的影响,以及牧食食物链和碎屑食物链的组成和碳传递效率等的响应机制。     

Research Progress of the Transfer Process of Organic Carbon Through Food Chain in Seagrass Bed

Seagrass beds are highly productive coastal ecosystems, which provide good nursery habitat and abundant Organic Carbon Sources (OCS) as food for marine animals. Human activities have led to widespread eutrophication in coastal areas. Eutrophication may alter the composition and properties of OCS, thereby affecting the feeding process of herbivores and secondary consumer, and energy transfer efficiency in food chain. This may affect the production function of biological resource in seagrass beds. Based on the summary of the foreign and domestic researches, primary achievements were systematically reviewed in this paper in five aspects: the composition of OCS and their contribution, feeding process of herbivore, food web structure and energy transfer efficiency, and their responses to eutrophication. Future researches that should be emphasized were also prospected. With the combined application of stable isotope analysis for bulks and tissues, fatty acid biomarkers and compound-specific stable isotope analysis, the quantitative study of the contribution of OCS, food web structure, key carbon flow pathway and their seasonal change patterns should be enhanced. Meanwhile, the differences of OCS between larval and adult stages of key consumers will need to be further examined to clarify the transformation of their feeding habits. Through field investigation, in-situ mesocosm and laboratory simulation experiments, the effects of nutrient increase on the structure (seagrass and epiphyte, etc.) and chemical composition (nutritional quality and secondary compounds, etc.) of OCS, the response of feeding process of herbivore and secondary consumer to the alteration of chemical compounds in primary producers, and the response mechanism of carbon transfer efficiency of the grazing food chain and detritus food chain need to be further studied.     

南水北调东线工程对东平湖水环境的影响

为考察南水北调东线工程对东平湖水环境的影响,为受水区域的用水安全提供保障,于东线工程通水前后分别采集不同水文时期的东平湖湖水样品,分析测定后,采用综合污染指数法、综合营养状态指数法、健康风险评价模型,评价东线工程通水前后东平湖湖水水质级别、营养化水平和健康风险水平的差异。结果表明:东线工程通水后,东平湖湖水综合污染指数由通水前的0.49变为通水后的0.58,水质级别仍为Ⅲ级轻度污染,部分指标超标但不严重;综合营养状态指数由通水前的50.72降为通水后的47.90,表明营养化水平由轻度富营养状态好转为中营养水平;健康风险由通水前的2.91×10~(-4)a~(-1)降为通水后的9.35×10~(-5)a~(-1),即由通水前的中—高风险水平降低为通水后的中风险水平。结论可知,南水北调东线工程的通水有利于东平湖湖水环境的改善,但与其他典型淡水湖泊相比,东平湖湖水的健康风险仍相对偏高,后续需要进一步加强湖区环境保护和污染排放的管控。     

氟化盐母液综合利用及效益分析

以湿法生产氟化盐工艺过程中所排放的母液为原料,利用母液中的氟、铝和硅等资源,采用化工同元溶解的原理,其工艺路线为氯化钠脱硅—脱硅后的母液合成冰晶石—加石灰中和除氟、除酸。其关键技术为氯化钠脱硅:投入过量氯化钠,使母液中氟硅酸根转化成副产品氟硅酸钠,母液被精制;再加入精制氢氟酸与各形态铝合成冰晶石副产品,从而有效地提高了氟、铝和硅的收率。半工业化实验结果表明:计算年产4 000 t氟化铝产品的母液,企业可回收产品氟化铝140 t,生产副产品氟硅酸钠238 t、冰晶石206 t、中和残渣375 t,每年可获效益140万元人民币。     

Interrupting a multi-species bioinvasion vector: the efficacy of in-water cleaning for removing biofouling on obsolete vessels

Vector management is the primary method for reducing and preventing nonindigenous species (NIS) invasions and their ecological and economic consequences. This study was the first to examine the efficacy of in-water scrubbing using a submersible cleaning and maintenance platform (SCAMP) to prevent invertebrate species transfers from a heavily fouled obsolete vessel. Initially, prior to treatment, 37 species were recorded in a biofouling matrix that reached 30cm depth in some locations. The bryozoan Conopeum chesapeakensis, and bivalves Mytilopsis leucophaeata and Ischadium recurvum, were dominant sessile species that created structure, supporting mobile biota that included crabs and the associated parasitic barnacle Loxothylacus panopae. Scrubbing had the effect of significantly reducing organism extent and the number of species per sample, but a substantial and diverse (30 species) residual fouling community remained across the entire vessel. Further assessments of management options are needed to prevent potentially damaging NIS transfers. Additional measures taken within an integrated vector management (IVM) strategy may further improve invasion prevention measures.     

乌鲁木齐台地磁短周期变化与邻区地震

利用转换函数方法计算自理了乌鲁木齐台１９９０年１月～１９９７年１２月地磁短周期Ｔ为９～２００ｍｉｎ的复转换函数Ａ、Ｂ之模Ａ、Ｂ、总方差σz以及帕金森矢量,并对其 在乌鲁木齐地区２５０ｋｍ范围内１５次４．０～５．７级地震发生前后的变化进行了研究。结果表明：不同周期的转换函数Ａ、Ｂ以及总方差σz值在震前均有明显异常。     

膨胀土裂隙的工程特性研究

裂隙是膨胀土的重要特征之一,长期以来,人们常常把分布于膨胀土大气影响深度范围内受干湿循环影响而产生的干缩裂隙与膨胀土地层中特有的原生裂隙混为一谈。在对膨胀土边坡失稳机制的研究中,也忽视了原生裂隙对边坡稳定的重要影响。为研究南水北调中线工程膨胀土地段渠道破坏机制,在河南省南阳市郊建设了一条长为2.05 km试验渠道,通过渠道开挖期间的地质勘察、现场观测和取样试验,以及对现场滑坡体的取样分析,研究了膨胀土裂隙及周边土体的物质成分、密度、含水率和强度特性,结合现场观测资料分析了裂隙与渠道滑坡的关系。研究表明,膨胀土地层中的原生裂隙有两种类型：光滑蜡状裂隙和有一定厚度充填黏土的裂隙。裂隙面上的物质成分与两侧土略有不同,且天然密度低、含水率高,强度远低于相邻土体的强度,一旦地层与边坡倾向一致,将产生沿裂隙面的滑动。     

基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调工程运行综合风险分析

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。