基于RegCM4模式的中国区域日尺度降水模拟误差订正

气候模式模拟得到的各气候变量与观测相比,总会存在一定的偏差,所得到的气候变化预估结果难以在影响评估模型中直接应用。本文尝试对一个区域气候模式（RegCM4.4）所模拟的中国区域逐日降水,基于概率分布（分位数映射）方法进行统计误差订正。在订正过程中,以模拟时段1991~2010年中的前半段（1991~2000年）作为参照时段,建立传递函数,对后一时段（2001~2010年）进行订正并检验其效果。首先对使用参数和非参数所建立的6种不同传递函数方法进行对比,发现6种方法均可明显减少降水模拟的误差,其中利用非参数转换建立传递函数的RQUANT方法效果更好。随后进一步分析了采用该方法对模式模拟降水所做订正的效果,结果表明,该方法可以明显改善对平均降水,以及降水年际变率和极端事件的模拟结果。     

关中地区地磁转换函数变化与地震关系初探

利用转换函数的方法对乾陵、泾阳、周至台1991—2002年地磁资料进行了计算处理,对关中各台地磁转换函数的变化特征进行了初步分析探讨。结果表明：不同周期的转换函数A、B以及总方差σz和△αρ在震前有明显变化;转换函数异常幅度不仅与周期有关,也和地震的震中距和震级有关。     

南水北调西线引水区与黄河上游降水过程的水汽特征分析

利用NCEP再分析资料,分析了南水北调西线引水地区和黄河上游的可降水量、水汽通量、水汽通量散度和该区域的流场.结果表明:在5~9月间,该地区可降水量7月最大,其次为8月、6月、9月,最小为5月;水汽通量主要从南边界获得,北边界存在较稳定的强度不大的净收入,西边界不太稳定,会出现负收入.研究区域上空600 hPa水汽通量主要为辐合,风场散度对水汽通量散度的贡献最大;向研究区域输送的水汽在低层既有直接从孟加拉湾输入,又有从孟加拉湾经中南半岛北部绕过来的,而高层则基本从孟加拉湾直接输入.     

Numerical studies on the influences of the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project on groundwater level changes in the Beijing Plain,China

Groundwater is an important component of the water supply, and overexploitation has triggered many problems in the Beijing Plain. The South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project has been proposed as a promising solution to alleviate these problems. Evaluation of different scenarios of groundwater management after the implementation of the South‐to‐North Water Transfer Project is necessarily required. In this study, a numerical model of groundwater flow was established using FEFLOW software and was well calibrated by parameter optimization and groundwater withdrawal inversion in the Beijing Plain. Sixteen scenarios that considered groundwater exploitation, artificial recharge, and precipitation were designed to simulate the groundwater dynamics after 11 years of the project. The results showed that the groundwater level in the study area would recover to various degrees due to the reductions of groundwater withdrawal and the increments of infiltration; additionally, it was concluded that groundwater was significantly affected by precipitation. Generally, in the designed scenarios, the groundwater‐level increment in the upper streams of the model area was higher than that in the lower streams. The groundwater level would obviously increase from artificial recharge in the immediate and adjacent areas. In addition, modes of reducing exploitation had no significant influence on the change in groundwater level during the 11‐year study period. The developed model offers a reliable and effective way to improve groundwater management.     

北京市水资源与水量平衡研究

以降雨-径流-蒸散发平衡和水资源供需平衡模式为基础进行研究,得到以下结论:北京市2001～2009年系列的水资源量与多年平均系列相比,水资源产量减少了约40.1%,减少的原因既有气候因素,也有人类活动导致土地覆被变化的原因,其中气候因素占30.1%,下垫面变化导致产流减少的比重为69.9%;同时由于人口的增长,北京市人均水资源占有量从270 m³下降到114 m³.在北京市水平衡分析中,采用不同下垫面蒸散发模式,计算得到2001～2009年北京市蒸散发为494 mm,河川径流量为46 mm,入境水量为4.34 亿m³,出境水量为8.03 亿m³,超采地下水、水库净补给以及外流域引水量为6.19 亿m³.在不考虑河道内生态需水条件下,北京市的现状缺水量为4.73～5.86 亿m³.到2014年南水北调中线水到达北京以后,北京将可以在75%来水年份下保障10～15年的水资源的基本供需平衡。但是如果遭遇95%来水频率的特枯年份,北京仍然将会面临较为严重的水资源短缺问题。     

气候变化对南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水丰枯遭遇的影响

运用Copula方法构建南水北调中线工程水源区与各受水区汛期、非汛期及全年降水量的联合分布,并基于IPCC第四次评估报告中大气环流模式的降水结果,用所建模型探讨了气候变化情景下,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区丰枯遭遇的变化。结果表明,从汛期来看,汉唐（汉江水源区-唐白河受水区）和汉海（汉江水源区-海河受水区）遭遇的丰枯同步频率呈增加趋势,不同排放情景下分别增加3.34%~16.48%和2.56%~8.21%,而汉黄（汉江水源区-黄河受水区）遭遇的丰枯同步频率呈减小趋势,不同排放情景下减小-1.97%~9.57%;从非汛期来看,汉唐和汉海遭遇的丰枯同步频率呈减小趋势,不同排放情景下分别减小-0.21%~9.42%和0.99%~5.54%,而汉黄遭遇的丰枯同步频率呈增加趋势,不同排放情景下增加1.79%~13.28%;从全年尺度来看,汉唐、汉黄和汉海遭遇的丰枯同步频率基本均呈减小趋势,不同排放情境下分别减小-2.88%~10.97%、-1.28%~5.05%和-2.33%~7.01%。     

月壤厚度的主被动微波遥感研究

主被动微波遥感的探测技术是当前获取月壤厚度信息的重要手段。主动微波技术和被动微波技术在探测月壤厚度的物理机理、研究中使用的参数和考虑的关键问题等方面都有所不同。在总结了前人研究成果的基础上,系统分析了月壤厚度研究中需要着重考虑的参数分布,并详细探讨了主被动微波遥感技术获取月壤厚度的原理及研究中所涉及的关键问题。     

膨胀土裂隙面强度的直剪试验研究

膨胀土中原生裂隙面的存在往往导致膨胀土边坡的失稳。选取南水北调中线工程南阳段膨胀土进行裂隙面强度试验研究,研究成果表明,裂隙面中填充的灰白色粘土的含水量远高于两侧不含裂隙膨胀土的含水量,裂隙面的峰值强度不仅远远小于不含裂隙膨胀土的峰值强度,而且也小于不含裂隙膨胀土的残余强度。     

德钦县城地质灾害成因及治理效益评价

分析德钦县城地质灾害多发原因,针对特殊的地质环境采取的灾害治理的措施取得的治理效益评价。     

The Holocene thermal maximum and late-Holocene cooling in the tundra of NE European Russia

To investigate the Holocene climate and treeline dynamics in the European Russian Arctic, we analysed sediment pollen, conifer stomata, and plant macrofossils from Lake Kharinei, a tundra lake near the treeline in the Pechora area. We present quantitative summer temperature reconstructions from Lake Kharinei and Lake Tumbulovaty, a previously studied lake in the same region, using a pollen–climate transfer function based on a new calibration set from northern European Russia. Our records suggest that the early-Holocene summer temperatures from 11,500 cal yr BP onwards were already slightly higher than at present, followed by a stable Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) at 8000–3500 cal yr BP when summer temperatures in the tundra were ca. 3°C above present-day values. A Picea forest surrounded Lake Kharinei during the HTM, reaching 150 km north of the present taiga limit. The HTM ended with a temperature drop at 3500–2500 cal yr BP associated with permafrost initiation in the region. Mixed spruce forest began to disappear around Lake Kharinei at ca. 3500 cal yr BP, with the last tree macrofossils recorded at ca. 2500 cal yr BP, suggesting that the present wide tundra zone in the Pechora region formed during the last ca. 3500 yr.