2003年俄、中、蒙交界M7.9地震前地倾斜异常

简要归纳了M7．9地震前地倾斜记录的异常及其特征,认为M7．9地震前地倾斜存在明显的阶段性异常,趋势异常持续3年以上,中短期异常由近场向600km范围扩展,700-850km范围的多个台站记录到较明显的临震异常,富蕴台地倾斜的掉格图像是M7．9地震最突出的前兆异常。     

近年新疆地震活动期间定点形变特征分析

对1999年以来新疆定点形变观测资料进行了分析。重点以基于突变异常理论的异常强度方法,对近期一组中强地震活动前后形变场的异常变化进行了动态分析,表明形变资料能够反映出一定程度的中短期、短临前兆异常,异常强度方法能够检验出大于阈值2的短期异常。     

Implications of subsurface thermal–hydraulic–mechanical processes associated with glaciation on Shield flow system evolution and performance assessment

A deep geologic repository (DGR) situated on the Canadian Shield will be subject to long-term climate change that will markedly alter surface conditions as a result of glaciation and permafrost penetration. Systematic, two-dimensional and three-dimensional coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical finite-element simulations with varying degrees of coupling, including depth-dependent salinity (represented as a change in groundwater density) and temperature-dependent density and viscosity, were undertaken to address the implications of glaciation on groundwater flow system dynamics as it could affect DGR performance. The modelling domain consisted of a 1.6-km deep sub-regional scale (≈100 km²) fractured Shield flow system. Initial and transient thermal, hydraulic and mechanical boundary conditions were developed from two realizations of the University of Toronto Glacial Systems Model of the last Laurentide glaciation. Results indicate that during the glacial loading/unloading cycle, for this particular conceptual model, there is limited penetration of glacial meltwaters to depth and small residual anomalous hydraulic head. During glacial coverage, the mechanical factor of safety increases in the moderately fractured and sparsely fractured rock mass, but principal effective stress reorientation also occurs. Given the assumed nonglacial in situ state of stress and mechanical properties, the fracture zones were predicted to be less stable under glacial conditions.

中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析

主要利用1961~2014年中国东部地区438个台站的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,从大气内部动力角度对夏季不同极端降水情况下的环境场进行分析,结果表明:对长江中下游地区而言,在极端降水频次偏多年时,850 hPa风场及整层水汽输送距平场均表明东亚夏季风偏弱,有利于更多的水汽输送到长江中下游地区,500 hPa鄂霍次克海阻塞高压持续日数偏多,有利于冷空气南下,200 hPa东亚副热带急流偏南,且30°N以南偏西风异常有利于辐散,而在斜压波包从西北东南向传播为极端降水事件分发生集聚了能量;对华北地区极端降水频次偏多年而言,850 hPa风场及整层的水汽输送距平场均表明东亚夏季风偏强,有利于更多的水汽输送到华北地区,500 hPa高度距平场日本海正距平,贝加尔湖蒙古地区为负距平,华北地区东高西低,200 hPa东亚副热带急流偏北,从而导致我国华北地区极端降水频次偏多,能量传播也为西北东南向。这些结果表明极端降水的变化,与大气内部的动力作用和能量的传播有密切的关系。     

北京地震前的异常次声波

观测并研究了2011年10月12日发生在北京海淀区的一次小地震前4天,五个次声监测站点接收到的异常次声波信号.这五路信号的波形一致,均为"N"形脉冲波,且持续时间基本一致,约在一个小时左右.基于Wigner-Ville分布方法对信号进行时频分析发现次声波能量主要集中在0.025 Hz的频率以下.五路信号间的相关系数均高达0.8左右.采用波束形成方法对信号源进行成像定位研究,其结果表明:该地震前异常次声波源的位置与地震发生时震中的位置相差约5 km.本文的分析结果说明了地震前可能有低频大气次声波的产生,研究这类次声波可能为地震的预测提供一种有价值的信息.     

Exploring IRSL50 fading variability in bedrock feldspars and implications for OSL thermochronometry

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) is a well-established Quaternary dating method, which has recently been adapted to application in low-temperature thermochronometry. The Infra-Red Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) of feldspar, which so far is the most promising target signal in thermochronometry, is unfortunately prone to anomalous fading. The fading of feldspar IRSL is at times not only challenging to measure, but also laborious to incorporate within luminescence growth models. Quantification of IRSL fading is therefore a crucial step in OSL thermochronometry, raising questions regarding (i) reproducibility and reliability of laboratory measurements of fading, as well as (ii) the applicability of existing fading models to quantitatively predict the level of IRSL field saturation in nature. Here we investigate the natural luminescence signal and anomalous fading of IRSL measured at 50 °C (IRSL₅₀) in 32 bedrock samples collected from a variety of lithologies and exhumation settings (Alaska and Norway). We report a large span of IRSL₅₀ fading rates between samples (g_2days ranging from ∼0.5 to ∼45%/decade), which further demonstrates (i) a good reproducibility between two common fading measurement protocols, and (ii) the ability of tunnelling models to predict the level of feldspar IRSL₅₀ field saturation in nature. We observe higher IRSL₅₀ fading in feldspar with increasing Ca content, although other factors cannot be dismissed at present. Finally, our dataset confirms that the applicability of feldspar IRSL₅₀ in OSL thermochronometry is limited to rapidly-exhuming settings or warm subsurface environments.     

3D inversion of gravity data by separation of sources and the method of local corrections: Kolarovo gravity high case study

We present a novel methodology for 3D gravity/magnetic data inversion. It combines two algorithms for preliminary separation of sources and an original approach to 3D inverse problem solution. The first algorithm is designed to separate sources in depth and to remove the shallow ones. It is based on subsequent upward and downward data continuation. For separation in the lateral sense, we approximate the given observed data by the field of several 3D line segments. For potential field data inversion we apply a new method of local corrections. The method is efficient and does not require trial-and-error forward modeling. It allows retrieving unknown 3D geometry of anomalous objects in terms of restricted bodies of arbitrary shape and contact surfaces. For restricted objects, we apply new integral equations of gravity and magnetic inverse problems. All steps of our methodology are demonstrated on the Kolarovo gravity anomaly in the Danube Basin of Slovakia.     

新10号泉水化学测项中强地震前兆异常特征的研究

选取1980年以来距新10号泉300km范围内的16次5级以上地震为研究对象,通过对新10号泉水化学参数在上述地震前后的全程时空扫描,初步总结出该泉水化学测项的前兆异常特征。（1）异常形态各异：硫化物为中期高值异常;氟离子以短期异常和中期异常为主;电导率基本上表现为中期高值异常;水汞以中期高值异常为主,个别地震前会出现临震高值异常;水氡为中期高值异常或年变畸变;甲烷则一般表现为高值中期异常,个别地震前也会在中期异常的基础上叠加大幅度临震异常;氦气为高值正异常。（2）映震对应率：硫化物为81．3％,氟离子为57．1％,电导率为31．3％,水汞为55．6％,水氡为18．8％,甲烷为46．7％,氦气为46．7％。     

Time and space nonlocalities underlying fractional-derivative models: Distinction and literature review of field applications

We investigate the spatiotemporal nonlocality underlying fractional-derivative models as a possible explanation for regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails. Properties of four fractional-order advection–dispersion equation (fADE) models were analyzed and compared systematically, including the space fADEs with either maximally positive or negative skewness, the time fADE with a temporal fractional-derivative 0<γ<1$0<\gamma <1$, and the extension of the time fADE with 1<γ<2$1<\gamma <2$. Space fADEs describe the dependence of local concentration change on a wide range of spatial zones (i.e., the space nonlocality), while time fADEs describe dynamic mass exchange between mobile and multiple immobile phases and therefore record the temporal history of concentration “loading” (i.e., the time-nonlocality). We then applied the fADEs as models of anomalous dispersion to four extensively-studied, regional-scale, natural systems, including a hillslope composed of fractured soils, a river with simultaneous active flow zones and various dead-zones, a relatively homogeneous glaciofluvial aquifer dominated by stratified sand and gravel, and a highly heterogeneous alluvial aquifer containing both preferential flowpaths and abundant aquitards. We find that the anomalous dispersion observed at each site might not be characterized reasonably or sufficiently by previous studies. In particular, the use of the space fADE with less than maximally positive skewness implies a spatial dependence on downstream concentrations that may not be physically realistic for solute transport in watershed catchments and rivers (where the influence of dead-zones on solute transport can be described by a temporal, not spatial, fractional model). Field-scale transport studies show that large ranges of solute displacement can be described by a space nonlocal, fractional-derivative model, and long waiting times can be described efficiently by a time-nonlocal, fractional model. The unknown quantitative relationship between the nonlocal parameters and the heterogeneity, and the similarity in concentration profiles that are solutions to the different nonlocal transport models, all demonstrate the importance of distinguishing the representative nonlocality (time and/or space) for any given regional-scale anomalous dispersion process.     

昌平地震台地温前兆特征分析

介绍了昌平地震台地温测点的基本情况及地温正常变化特征。分析了该测点记到的一些地震前的地地温异常变化特征。自１９９５年以来该测点观测到１１次异常,其中有９次与发生在该台附近（３００ｋｍ范围内）的地震相对应,有２次异常没有对应地震。距离该测点较近的地震的异常形态为趋势下降－回升型;距离该测点较远的地震的异常形态为跳型,震前异常幅度越大,平静时间越长,未来地震的震级越大,反之则小,以分为间隔的测值的异常