Wavelet-vaguelette decomposition of spatiotemporal random fields

A wavelet-based orthogonal decomposition of the solution to stochastic differential/pseudodifferential equations of parabolic type is derived in the cases of random initial conditions and random forcing. The family of spatiotemporal models considered can represent anomalous diffusion processes when the spatial operator involved is a fractional or multifractional pseudodifferential operator. The results obtained are applied to the generation of the sample paths of Gaussian spatiotemporal random fields in the family studied.     

中国冬季气温月际变化特征及其对大气环流异常的响应

基于1951—2014年中国160站月气温和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用季节的经验正交函数分解（S-EOF）等方法,研究了中国冬季气温月际变化的时、空演变特征及其对大气环流异常的响应。结果表明,中国冬季气温在月尺度上常常出现前、后冬相反甚至冷暖交替的现象。中国冬季气温月际变化存在3个主模态:全冬一致型、前后反相型和冷暖交替型。当西伯利亚高压冬季一致偏强（偏弱）时,冬季一致冷（暖）;当海陆热力差异由强变弱、西伯利亚高压强度由强变弱,东亚西风急流比较稳定,强度偏强,位置由南向北移动时,冬季前冷后暖;当大气环流发生突变,尤其是海平面气压场和500 hPa位势高度场上大气活动中心的频繁调整,西伯利亚高压强度在月时间尺度上强弱交替时,冬季气温呈冷—暖—冷交替变化。      

Exploring the nature of non-Fickian transport in laboratory experiments

Observations of non-Fickian transport in sandbox experiments [Levy M, Berkowitz B. Measurement and analysis of non-Fickian dispersion in heterogeneous porous media. J Contam Hydrol 2003;64:203–26] were analyzed previously using a power law tail ψ(t) ∼ t^−1−β with 0 < β < 2 for the spectrum of transition times comprising a tracer plume migration. For each sandbox medium a choice of β resulted in an excellent fit to the breakthrough curve (BTC) data, and the value of β decreased slowly with increasing flow velocity. Here, the data are reanalyzed with the full spectrum of ψ(t) gleaned from analytical calculations [Cortis A, Chen Y, Scher H, Berkowitz B. Quantitative characterization of pore-scale disorder effects on transport in “homogeneous” granular media. Phys Rev E 2004;10(70):041108. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.70.041108], numerical simulations [Bijeljic B, Blunt MJ. Pore-scale modeling and continuous time random walk analysis of dispersion in porous media. Water Resour Res 2006;42:W01202. doi: 10.1029/2005WR004578] and permeability fields [Di Donato G, Obi E-O, Blunt MJ. Anomalous transport in heterogeneous media demonstrated by streamline-based simulation. Geophys Res Lett 2003;30:1608–12s. doi: 10.1029/2003GL017196]. We represent the main features of the full spectrum of transition times with a truncated power law (TPL), ψ(t) ∼ (t₁ + t)^−1−βexp(−t/t₂), where t₁ and t₂ are the limits of the power law spectrum. An excellent fit to the entire BTC data set, including the changes in flow velocity, for each sandbox medium is obtained with a single set of values of t₁, β, t₂. The influence of the cutoff time t₂ is apparent even in the regime t < t₂. Significantly, we demonstrate that the previous apparent velocity dependence of β is a result of choosing a pure power law tail for ψ(t). The key is the change in the log–log slope of the TPL form of ψ(t) with a shifting observational time window caused by the change in the mean velocity. Hence, the use of the full spectrum of ψ(t) is not only necessary for the transition to Fickian behavior, but also to account for the dynamics of these laboratory observations of non-Fickian transport.     

合肥台地电阻率NS向趋势异常变化原因分析

合肥台NS测向地电阻率自2015年以来出现趋势下降异常,经核实2015—2016年降雨量增多和地下水位抬升与地电阻率趋势下降异常变化显著相关。通过褶积滤波法和相关分析法分别消除降雨和水位影响后,趋势下降变化不明显,从而认为此变化为干扰所致,非地震前兆异常,并探讨了这种干扰影响机制,为今后判断引起地电测值变化的原因提供了科学依据。     

山东苍山5.2级地震前十里泉电厂水汞异常特征

概述了山东十里泉电厂水汞观测井孔的水文地质条件及其观测情况,分析了山东苍山１９９５年９月２０日５．２级地震前的异常变化特征,指出该井对周围５０ｋｍ左右５级地震具有较好的监测能力。     

日极差法在识别地下水位异常动态中的应用

针对新疆呼图壁２１号泉地下水位动态特征,提出新的识别异常方法－日极差法,在分析天山中段５段地震和新疆境内大于６．０级地震前后２１号泉地下水位动态异常变化时,发现用日极差法消除水动态随机变化,突出,识别异常,效果显著,震例验证结果及地震预报效能评价证明：日极差法具有操作性能强,简便,快速,有效的特点。     

新疆天山地区定点形变中短期地震前兆识别预报方法及效能评价研究

应用“七五”、“八五”攻关确定的６种分析方法并运用２种新方法,对天山地区１０个测点的定点为资料进行全时空扫描,归纳出天山地震带Ｍs≥５.０地震的异常特征,获得了各种方法地震三要素的异常识别指标,并对各项结果从物理意义和统计角度进行相关分析,应用Ｒ值、Ｖ值评分法对各种方法的预报效能进行了统一评价,最后总结出天山地区１年尺度的地震地形变前兆识别方法和指标体系。     

永登5.8级地震前后波谱参数和Q值变化特征

利用中国数字地震台网（ＣＤＳＮ）兰州台短周期数字地震仪的记录资料,研究了１９９５年甘肃永登ＭＳ５．８地震前后,发生在永登地区小地震的Ｓ波波谱参数,获得以下结果：（１）在永登地震前２年左右,该地区小地震的ＳＣ波波谱拐角频率ｆＣ逐渐下降,由原来的２．４Ｈｚ下降到１．８Ｈｚ．（２）直达波Ｓｇ和地壳内中间层反射波ＳＣ的波谱高频衰减斜率比值γ则先逐渐上升,在临震前１６个月逐渐下降,在下降过程中发生了永登地震,以后又逐渐恢复．（３）用直达横波Ｓｇ的谱参数求出的介质品质因数ＱＳｇ在永登地震前后有较明显的异常变化     

1998年海原4.7级地震前平凉地区的前兆异常及观测资料的映震能力检验

介绍了１９９８ 年７ 月２９ 日宁夏海原４ ．７ 级地震前,平凉地区几个观测台站的水氡、水位和地电阻率的异常反映,及对该次地震的预报情况．研究表明,平凉地区的几种观测手段对该地区及邻近的宁夏西海固地区５ 级左右地震和南北地震带北段６ 级以上地震有较好的映震能力．     

地震活动增强方式及其复杂性

分析了地震活动增强特征参数W1与相应其它参数的关系以及在一些6级左右地震前W1值的动态图像变化。结果表明中强以上地震前的地震活动“增强”通常表现为在强度上的增高、时间和空间上的丛集以及强度增高与时空丛集同时出现3种方式。一些6级左右地震前W1值动态图像变化表明地震过程往往表现为多应力集中区相互作用和影响的演变过程。