北极海冰消融情景下东北航道通航性能演变分析

全球气候增暖,导致北极海冰消融加速,冰上丝绸之路的开通逐渐提上日程.本文针对2030-2070年俄罗斯8个重要港口通过东北航道到达白令海峡的通航性能,采用6种CMIP5气候模式在2种排放情景下的海冰数据,以及PC6破冰船和普通商船2种船型,分别对最优航线、通航时长、可通航里程以及通航成本4项要素进行研究.主要结论为:①...     

印度洋通道及其对中国地缘环境影响

印度洋通道是中国获取能源和其他资源、出口工业产品并同南亚、西亚、非洲和欧洲国家交流合作的生命线。随着中美关系和中国周边地缘态势的深刻变化,中国需要积极谋划逐渐降低对传统的南海—马六甲海峡通道的依赖,建设新的印度洋通道,从而降低自身的地缘环境风险,并由此优化国内经济发展布局,推动西南沿边地区进一步开发与开放,并提升中国同印度洋沿岸国家和地区的交流与合作水平。本研究从通道的定义和特征出发,梳理了现有及潜在的印度洋通道,比较分析了各条通道的战略意义、前景及地缘环境影响,从而为中国的印度洋战略构建和“一带一路”倡议推进提供新的视角和见解。     

基于“永盛轮”航线冰情分析的北极东北航线通航性研究

海冰冰情是开发、利用北极航道的关键信息,研究利用2006—2015年北极地区逐日海冰密集度数据,根据2013年"永盛轮"首航北极东北航道时所经航线为例,提取了航线冰情要素,包括航线通航窗口、逐日海冰密集度时空分布以及海冰密集度月标准差等,对航线通航条件进行了研究。根据航线冰情要素获得了十年间航线通航窗口的基本情况,十年间航线所经水域的大体通航情况和主要冰障位置,7—10月份航线所经水域海冰密集度的变化动态。通过对航线冰情要素的分析,得出影响航线的两个关键海域,并分析了"永盛轮"航线与关键水域航线通航窗口的变化趋势。     

长江口北槽柱状沉积物粒度分布特征及沉积环境指示意义

为了研究长江口北槽深水航道的泥沙回淤机制及来源,通过对长江口北槽深水航道中部南、北导堤两侧坝田区域所采浅钻柱状样的沉积物特征、粒度参数特征、粒度成分和沉积速率特征等的分析,探讨北槽深水航道水动力条件和泥沙沉积环境。结果显示,柱状样以黏土质粉砂为主,受径流和潮汐作用,分选性都较差,偏态均为正偏,北导堤和南导堤两侧柱状样的分选系数、偏态和峰态在同一侧相互之间的特征较一致,且三组分组成接近;南北导堤异侧之间的粒度特征差异较为明显,北导堤一侧的平均粒度比南导堤的小,北导堤坝田附近的柱状样粒级百分比在垂向上波动变化较大,南导堤则表现的较为单一;南北导堤的敏感组分主要集中在粒级100μm部分。结合资料和测年数据,综合得出,由于北导堤和南导堤的涨落潮不对称,导致了其粒度特征上的不同;北槽淤积中的流域供沙逐渐减少,泥沙来源逐渐转变为滩槽交换供沙为主;北槽受深水航道工程影响巨大,泥沙沉积过程复杂,还需深入研究。     

Morphological Evolution and Its Response to the Navigational Improvements in the North Passage,Yangtze Estuary

By use of bathymetric chart,recent change of the riverbed in the North Passage of the Yangtze Estuary has been studied in this paper.The main channel of the upper,middle and lower(section)in the North Passage has been successively eroded and its groin field significantly deposited.At the same time,sediment has been deposited on the entrance region.Erosion and deposition had responded rapidly to the construction of the regulation engineering.There was about one year duration of lagging between erosion in the deep channel and the construction of the regulation engineering.The siltation lag of time in the groin field varied with the initial depth,but the average deposited thickness was about 0.5 m per year.Volumetric analysis demonstrates that there is a increasing trend of siltation in the North Passage after 2002,because of the difference in duration and quantity between erosion in the deep channel and deposition in the groin field.The water volume of the North Passage was reduced by ≈9%(280 million m3)between 2002 and 2006.Sediment budget reveals that the main sediment deposited in the North Passage takes its source from the river and the ocean.The decreasing water volume was attributable to shoaling in the groin field.Its triggering factors for increased sedimentation are the navigational improvements(jetties and groins)after 1998,which altered the passage boundary and destroyed the equilibrium state on the average ebb and flood sediment fluxes.The establishment of a stable estuary is attributed to a reduction in depth of the groin field.The forecast on the sediment deposition quantity and continuous infilling time in the groin system is about 325×106m3 and 6～7 years,respectively.     

Surface geostrophic currents across the Antarctic circumpolar current in Drake Passage from 1992 to 2004

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the global overturning circulation as a significant proportion of deep water is converted into intermediate and deeper water masses in this region. Recently, a secular trend has been reported in wind stress around the Southern Ocean and it is thought theoretically that the strength of the ACC is closely related to wind stress, so one consequence should be a corresponding increase in ACC transport and hence changes in the rate of the global overturning. There are no long-term data sets of ACC transport and so we must examine other data that may also respond to changing wind stress. Here we calculate surface currents in Drake Passage every seven days over 11.25 years from 1992 to 2004. We combine surface velocity anomalies calculated from satellite altimeter sea surface heights with measured surface currents. Since 1992, the UK has regularly occupied WOCE hydrographic section SR1b across the ACC in Drake Passage. From seven hydrographic sections surface currents are estimated by referencing relative geostrophic velocities from CTD sections with current measurements made by shipboard and lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers. Combining the seven estimates of surface currents with the altimeter data reduces bias in the estimates of average currents over time through Drake Passage and we show that surface current anomalies estimated by satellite and in situ observations are in good agreement. The strongest surface currents are found in the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts with average speeds of 50 cm/s and 35 cm/s, respectively and are inversely correlated, so that maximum westward flow in one corresponds to minimum westward flow in the other. The average cross-sectional weighted surface velocity from 1992 to 2004 is 16.7 ± 0.2 cm/s. A spectral analysis of the average surface current has only weakly increasing energy at higher frequencies and there is no dominant mode of variability. The standard deviation of the seven day currents is 0.68 cm/s and a running 12 month average has only a slightly smaller standard deviation of 0.52 ± 0.16 cm/s. The southern annular mode (SAM) measures the circumpolar average of wind stress and like the surface currents its spectrum has slightly increased energy at frequencies greater than 1 cpy. A cospectral analysis of these, averaging cospectra of five slightly overlapping 36 month segments improve statistical reliability, suggests that there is coherence between them at 1 cpy with the currents leading changes in the Southern annular mode. We conclude that the SAM and average Drake Passage surface currents are weakly correlated with no dominant co-varying modes, and hence predicting Southern Ocean transport variability from the SAM is not likely to give significant results and that secular trends in surface currents are likely to be masked by weekly and interannual variability.     

Geological interpretation of combined Seabeam,Gloria and seismic data from Anegada Passage (Virgin Islands,north Caribbean)

The Anegada Passage (sensu lato) includes several basins and ridges from Southeast of Puerto Rico to the corner of the Virgin Islands Platform. Seabeam (Seacarib I) and Gloria long-range sidescan sonar surveys were carried out in this area. These new data allow us to propose an interpretation of the Anegada Passage.Most of the features described are related to wrench faulting:

The effect of Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport on the frontal variability in Drake Passage

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is composed of three major fronts: the Sub-Antarctic Front (SAF), the Polar Front (PF), the Southern ACC Front (SACCF). The locations of these fronts are variable. The PF can shift away from its historical (mean) location by as much as 100 km. The transport of the ACC in Drake Passage varies from its mean (134 Sv) by as much as 60 Sv. A regional numerical circulation model is used to study frontal variability in Drake Passage as affected by a range of volume transports (from 95 Sv to 155 Sv with an interval of 10 Sv). Large transport shifts the fronts northward while the smaller transport causes a southward shift. The mean shifting distance of the PF from the historical mean location is minimum with 135 Sv transport. The SAF and the SACCF are confined by northern and southern walls, respectively, while the PF is loosely controlled by the topography. Due to impact of the eddies and meanders on the PF at several regions in Drake Passage, the PF may move northward to join the SAF or move southward to combine with the SACCF, especially in central Scotia Sea. The SAF and PF are more stable with higher transport. The SAF behaves as a narrow, strong frontal jet with large transport while displaying meanders with smaller transport. In the model simulations, the Ertel Potential Vorticity (EPV) is strongly correlated with the volume transport stream function. EPV at depths between 1000 and 2500 m is correlated with the transport stream function with a coefficient above 0.9. Near the bottom, the correlation is about 0.6 due to the disruptive influence of bottom topography. Within 750 m of the surface, the correlation is much reduced due to the effect of K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixing and eddy mixing.     

北极东北航道维利基茨基海峡海冰时空变化及适航性分析

利用2002—2013年的海冰密集度数据对北极东北航道通航关键区域——维利基茨基海峡的海冰分布特征和通航性进行了分析研究。结果表明,近十年来从8月中下旬到10月中旬海峡海面状况适合船舶航行;海冰冰情年际变化很大,对维利基茨基海峡通航天数有明显的影响;海峡每年可通航时间基本在40 d以上,其开通时间年际变化较大,从7—9月不等,而结束时间相对集中在10月份。     

长江口深水航道一、二期工程建设以来北槽河段的冲淤演变

利用长江口深水航道治理一、二期工程实施前后的水下地形资料,在GIS软件及相关的统计分析软件的支持下,分析了治理工程对北槽拦门沙河段的影响。结果表明:整治工程使得河道平均水深增加,河床上下平顺相接,河床横断面形态趋于均匀,河势趋于稳定。至2005年初,北槽河道上段水深比工程前的1998年初平均增加了1.34m,中段则淤浅0.63m,下段刷深0.81m,河床纵向上变得和缓、平顺;丁坝段的冲刷南侧的强度较北侧大,中下段河槽北偏,深泓从原来的东南-西北走向改呈东西向,全槽形成了一条上下段平顺相接的微弯自然深泓线,河槽的形态也从工程前的宽缓或陡峭形变为均匀的“V”字形;下游河段没有产生新的航道拦门沙。