Variability of the North Pacific Current and its bifurcation

The North Pacific Current (NPC) bifurcates approaching the west coast of North America into a subpolar branch that forms the Alaska Current, and a subtropical branch that includes the California Current. The variability of this current system is discussed using numerical results from a wind-driven, reduced-gravity model. Indices of the strength of the subpolar and subtropical components of the NPC are examined based on output from multi-decadal simulations with the numerical model. This shows periods of both correlated and anti-correlated variability of the subpolar and subtropical gyres. A decomposition of the gyre transport time series indicates that the dominant mode of variability is a “breathing” mode in which the subpolar and subtropical gyres co-vary in response to fluctuations in the strength of the NPC. This finding is consistent with an analysis of dynamic height data of limited duration from the array of Argo drifting floats.The variability of the NPC is also examined using sea surface height (SSH) data from satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2005. The leading mode of SSH over the northeast Pacific dominates the variability of the NPC and is shown to be associated with in-phase variations in the transport of the subtropical and subpolar gyres. A strong correlation is found between time-dependent fluctuations in SSH across the NPC and variations in the strength of the transport of the NPC in the model. This agreement provides evidence for variability of the NPC occuring in direct response to large-scale atmospheric forcing.     

Bottom-up and top-down controls of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) on the Eastern Bering Sea shelf

Control of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment in the Eastern Bering Sea involves complex interactions between bottom-up and top-down processes, although the mechanisms are poorly understood. We used statistical models to test the leading hypotheses linking recruitment variability to biotic and abiotic factors. Consistent with a “cold-pool hypothesis”, recruitment of pollock was significantly stronger if winters preceding the larval (age-0) and juvenile stages (age-1) were mild. However, our results did not support the proposed top-down mechanism (cannibalism) underlying this hypothesis. Several empirical relationships support an “oscillating control hypothesis”. As predicted by it, the effect of ice conditions on survival during the larval and early juvenile stages was modified by the abundance of adult pollock, implying stronger bottom-up control when adult abundance (hence cannibalism) was low. The proposed bottom-up mechanism predicts that the survival of pelagic-feeding walleye pollock (benthic-feeding yellowfin sole), should be higher during years with an early (late) ice retreat, which was confirmed by our analysis. Our results also provide additional evidence for a “larval transport hypothesis”, which states that cannibalism of larval and juvenile pollock is reduced in years when strong northward advection separates juveniles from cannibalistic adults.In addition to testing existing hypotheses, we identified new relationships between spawner-to-recruit survival rates of walleye pollock and several indicators of mixed layer dynamics during the spring and summer. Survival rates and recruitment were significantly reduced when larval or early juvenile stages experienced a delay in the (non-ice-associated) spring bloom as a result of stormy spring conditions, suggesting that the timing of the spring bloom is critical to both first-feeding larvae and age-1 juveniles. Furthermore, a dome-shaped relationship between pollock survival and summer wind mixing at the early juvenile stage is consistent with modeling and laboratory studies showing an increase in survival at low to moderate levels of wind mixing, but a decrease in feeding success at high levels of wind mixing.Top-down controls also regulate recruitment of walleye pollock. At least one-third of the variability in spawner-to-recruit survival could be accounted for by predation mortality at the early juvenile stage (age-1). Predation of juvenile pollock can be attributed largely to cannibalism, which varies with the abundance of adult pollock and with the availability of juveniles to adult predators. A simple index reflecting the spatial overlap between juvenile and adult pollock explained 30–50% of the overall variability in recruitment, similar to the variability explained by the best environmental predictors. Although environmental effects are difficult to separate from the effects of predation, we conclude that bottom-up and top-down processes are equally important in controlling the survival of pollock from spawning to recruitment at age 2. However, the magnitude of top-down control is itself modified by environmental factors that control the availability of juvenile pollock to adults (through impacts on spatial distribution) and the abundance of adult predators (through effects on productivity and carrying capacity).     

Is there any hope for fisheries management?

Fisheries is not the only discipline where models have been used in attempts to fine tune an aspect of the economy. Such fine-tuning can prove ineffective because of the uncertainties in the scientific underpinnings of the models and because of the omission of critical elements. In fisheries, the biological goal is to set allowable catches so that the harvest is not so large that it endangers the future health of the fish stock while it is not so low as to waste food, while the economic goal is to maximize the net economic rent generated by the fishery. It has long been recognized that the science underlying the setting of the total allowable catch is often too uncertain to justify such fine tuning, and that attempts to achieve that delicate balance has helped lead to crises in fisheries. One solution is to abandon such marginalism in favor of seriously reducing current catches.     

Transferability of fishing rights: The Spanish case

Some authors defend the implementation of regulation mechanisms such as individual transferable quotas, that is, the capacity to assign every fisherman an individual right so that he can fish a certain quantity of a specific species during a concrete period of time, as the most efficient way to reach a greater resource assessment and to guarantee biological sustainability. Nevertheless, much attention has been brought to the fact that, since these rights can be sold, negotiated, exchanged or transferred by the owners, it can bring about a concentration process, which would not favour social equity.