1981－2005年中国东北榆树物候变化特征及模拟研究

探讨了1980－2005年中国东北榆树物候的时空变化与气候因子的关系。结果表明：近26 a,东北地区13个站点榆树的展叶期和枯黄期变化趋势较大,13个物候时间系列,展叶初期显著提前趋势占54%,枯黄初期显著推后趋势占38%;榆树物候与气温呈显著相关关系：展叶期与3－4月平均气温呈显著的负相关关系,与平均展叶期的积温呈显著的负相关关系;各站点枯黄期与8－9月平均气温关系不显著,整个东北地区呈显著的正相关关系。研究表明,榆树物候与降水、日照关系不显著。以日平均气温最高日为界,枯黄期积温值可分为呈线性关系的两段,从日平均气温最高日开始,连续10 d积温值低于固定值时,植物开始枯黄。     

阜新市海州露天矿区开采对空气质量的影响

利用遥感技术可快速、准确、大范围地监测矿山开发状况和了解矿区生态环境现状。以Landsat TM和CBERS卫星影像为主要数据来源,采用栅格数据、遥感数据与统计数据相结合的内业处理与外业调查相结合的技术路线,通过目视解译、人机交互解译、计算机自动识别等遥感信息提取技术和遥感影像处理,分析近20 a阜新市海州露天矿矿区面积变化趋势及近5a来对当地空气质量的影响。结果表明:阜新市海州露天矿矿区面积逐年减小,当地空气质量逐年优化。由此可见,露天矿矿区面积的减小对于当地空气质量的改善起到了一定的推动作用。     

Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.     

Current and Future Applications of 3-D Global Earth-Ionosphere Models Based on the Full-Vector Maxwell’s Equations FDTD Method

Advances in computing technologies in recent decades have provided a means of generating and performing highly sophisticated computational simulations of electromagnetic phenomena. In particular, just after the turn of the twenty-first century, improvements to computing infrastructures provided for the first time the opportunity to conduct advanced, high-resolution three-dimensional full-vector Maxwell’s equations investigations of electromagnetic propagation throughout the global Earth-ionosphere spherical volume. These models, based on the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, are capable of including such details as the Earth’s topography and bathymetry, as well as arbitrary horizontal/vertical geometrical and electrical inhomogeneities and anisotropies of the ionosphere, lithosphere, and oceans. Studies at this level of detail simply are not achievable using analytical methods. The goal of this paper is to provide an historical overview and future prospectus of global FDTD computational research for both natural and man-made electromagnetic phenomena around the world. Current and future applications of global FDTD models relating to lightning sources and radiation, Schumann resonances, hypothesized earthquake precursors, remote sensing, and space weather are discussed.

Comparison of alternative upscaled model formulations for simulating DNAPL source dissolution and biodecay

This paper compares the performance of analytical and numerical approaches for modeling DNAPL dissolution with biodecay. A solution derived from a 1-D advective transport formulation (“Parker” model) is shown to agree very closely with high resolution numerical solutions. A simple lumped source mass balance solution in which with decay is assumed proportional to DNAPL mass (“Falta1” model) over- or underpredicts aqueous phase biodecay depending on the magnitude of the exponential factor governing the relationship between dissolution rate and DNAPL mass. A modification of the Falta model that assumes decay proportional to the source exit concentration is capable of accurately simulating source behavior with strong aqueous phase biodecay if model parameters are appropriately selected or calibrated (“Falta2” model). However, parameters in the lumped models exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be quantified without consideration of transport processes within the source zone. Combining the Falta2 solution with relationships derived from the Parker model was found to resolve these limitations and track the numerical model results. A method is presented to generalize the analytical solutions to enable simulation of partial mass removal with changes in source parameters over time due to various remedial actions. The algorithm is verified by comparison with numerical simulation results. An example application is presented that demonstrates the interactions of partial mass removal, enhanced biodecay, enhanced mass transfer and source zone flow reduction applied at various time periods on contaminant flux reduction. Increasing errors that arise in numerical solutions with coarse discretization and high decay rates are shown to be controlled by using an adjusted decay coefficient derived from the Parker analytical solution.     

Accelerator mass spectrometry of the actinides

Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) is presently the most sensitive technique for the measurement of actinides with half-lives greater than about 5000 years. Here, the principles and methodology of heavy-element AMS as applied to ^{239,240,242,244}Pu and ²³⁶U are described, and the ways in which these have been implemented in various laboratories around the world are detailed. Actual or potential applications of the method in the areas of environmental science, biomedicine, and nuclear safeguards are reviewed.     

裂隙网络模拟与REV尺度研究

研究了利用平面四边形模拟节理岩体三维裂隙网络的方法。在生成裂隙网络时,同时考虑结构面几何参数和力学参数的随机性。利用裂隙网络研究了确定岩体REV尺度的指标。在此基础上,编制了岩体裂隙网络模拟程序、裂隙网络图形输出程序和岩体REV尺度指标分析程序。通过算例分析,验证了研究成果及程序的合理性,并得出了岩体REV尺度约为各组裂隙中最大迹长期望值3~4倍的结论。研究成果为后续计算岩体等效力学参数奠定了基础。     

考虑岩体开挖卸荷边坡岩体质量评价

正确评价开挖后岩体质量并对其进行分类,对研究岩石边坡开挖卸荷后的稳定性有十分重要的意义。以某水电站坝肩高边坡开挖工程为背景,运用卸荷岩体力学的理论与方法,对坝肩边坡开挖岩体进行三维有限元分析。根据边坡岩体开挖后应力应变场的动态变化情况,确定岩体开挖卸荷后质量损伤劣化程度,并根据岩体开挖卸荷后的力学参数,采用RMR法对开挖后的边坡岩体质量进行评价。结果表明,边坡岩体RMR值随开挖后卸荷量的增大基本呈线性递减趋势,进而考虑开挖卸荷影响因素,修正了RMR法中的评价参数,为以后用该法评价开挖后的岩体质量提供参考。     

边坡岩体软弱夹层力学特性试验研究

采用自制试验装置,进行边坡岩体中的软弱夹层的力学特性试验。分析实测的剪应力-变形曲线发现,该曲线有明显的比例极限、屈服点和峰值点,表明在试件受力变形初期,剪切力-变形近似呈线性关系,剪切刚度为常量;随法向应力的增大,峰值剪应力呈线性增长,达到峰值强度之后,随剪切变形增大,抗剪强度变化不大,残余强度近似等于峰值强度,表明试样发生剪切破坏,其破坏类型呈“塑性”破坏型。软弱夹层的剪切变形可分为3个阶段,各个阶段的强度参数不同,对边坡工程来说,为保证其有足够的安全系数,建议软弱夹层强度参数取低值。根据试验结果得到的法向应力-压缩位移关系曲线近似呈双曲线型,当法向相对位移小于3.4 mm时与理论结果更为接近。     

阳江抽水蓄能电站岩体水压致裂综合测试与应用研究

阳江抽水蓄能电站的输水隧洞围岩承受最大静内水压力高达7.83MPa, 因此原地应力状态、围岩自身承载能力及高压透水性状等对工程的科学设计不可或缺。测量结果表明, 工程区现今地壳应力场的总体特征为:水平主应力为最大主应力, 最大水平主应力的优势方向为NW-NWW向; 厂房和高压岔管区围岩的最大主应力值一般为14.5±0.5MPa, 最小主应力值一般为9±0.5MPa; 围岩自身的抗载强度一般为10~14MPa; 在8~10MPa高压力作用下围岩基本不透水。洞室围岩物理力学参数的这些测试成果, 为工程的科学设计提供了可靠依据。