台北盆地构造特征及形成机制探讨

台北盆地位于台湾造山带的北部,它的形成有其特殊的机制而不同于一般意义上由于造山带的垮塌直接导致的盆地。钻井、地震勘探等资料表明,控制盆地形成的山脚断层并不是一条完整的正断层,而是由 3个段落组成,每个段落控制 1个沉积中心,彼此之间没有沟通。山脚断层各段落的活动性并不相同,向NE方向随时间逐渐增强,目前最为活动的段落集中在中段和北段,南段已不活动。台北盆地并不是一个孤立发育的盆地,是与金山断层东南的大屯火山群同时陷落的,具有一致的地球物理场背景、沉降规模以及正断层活动,广义的台北盆地从沉降范围和机制上还应该包括金山断层以南的大屯火山群。盆地周围发育了一系列的火山 (群),由于盆地的发育是紧随这些火山主要活动之后的,盆地的形成与周围火成活动有着必然联系,一些地球物理资料和盆地内的构造发育及沉积迁移特征表明,台北盆地的发育是深部岩浆体的冷却收缩所致。台北盆地深部存在与大屯火山群深部相通的岩浆体,岩浆体的冷却由南向北迁移     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Significance of variations in the wind energy environment over the past 50 years with respect to dune activity and desertification in arid and semiarid northern China

Climate data from 339 meteorological stations collected from the 1950s to the early 2000s was employed to discuss aeolian activity in arid and semiarid northern China. The results show that at decadal time scales, erosivity varied greatly in this region. Most of arid and semiarid northern China was characterised by environments with moderate to low wind energy. After the 1980s, the erosivity was only 20 to 50% of that beforehand, and this difference had a significant impact on the environmental changes observed during the two periods. The dune mobility index was consistent with the observed dune activity. After the 1980s dune activity decreased and in some deserts with vegetated dune systems during the 1970s most of the dune plinths were active until the 1980s, after which only the crests were active. Some mobile dunes that had developed at the margins of mobile deserts were replaced by semi-anchored or anchored dunes. Because most desert areas with vegetated dune systems in arid and semiarid northern China are used for farming or grazing, the results of our monitoring show that the desertification trends were consistent with the trends in erosivity and dune activity in this region. Desertification was controlled much more by climatic changes than has previously been acknowledged, and especially by fluctuations in wind energy.     

Patterns of resource use by livestock during and after drought on the commons of Namaqualand, South Africa

The aim of this study was to determine the effect of drought on grazing patterns of livestock in a communal rangeland in Namaqualand. Water points were the foci of almost all grazing routes even after the drought, and the areas away from the water points were less heavily utilized. The mountains could be regarded as key resource areas for livestock since the grazing intensity was higher in the elevated areas of the rangeland than on the surrounding low lying areas during and immediately after drought. Spatial patterns of resource use by livestock on the commons did not differ during the drought and post-drought period. The lengths of the daily grazing routes were similar for both periods. This may be a consequence of the weakness of animals during the drought when forage was scarce which prevented them from walking further. The size of home ranges of the herds did not change during the two monitoring periods. We attribute this to social reasons because herders try to avoid the mixing of herds. In the commons of Namaqualand, herders are also spatially constrained and this restricts their options to adapt to drought, and hence many animals died.     

影响浸铀细菌活性的因素初探

微生物浸铀技术可以大幅度提高难浸铀矿石的浸出率 ,其关键技术是培养高活性的菌种。为了培养能适应多种恶劣条件的高活性菌种 ,必须对影响浸铀微生物活性的各种因素进行研究。通过实验室对浸铀细菌硫杆菌属中的氧化亚铁硫杆菌的活性因素的研究 ,并结合实际对从江西山南矿区的野外矿样中分离筛选出的菌株的活性的影响因素作了初步探讨 ,认为pH值为 1 8、温度为 30℃、接种量为 2 0 %及 90r/min的充气条件是该硫杆菌最佳的培养条件。通过对磷、铀两种元素在不同浓度下对细菌活性影响的试验 ,得出高浓度的磷、铀对细菌有明显的抑制作用 ,但通过驯化可以降低及弱化这种抑制作用。     

Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE MEIYU/BAIU RAIN BELT AND THE PERIODIC NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC

In order to investigate the effect of the factors in tower latitudes on Meiyu/Baiu front,adiagnostic analysis for the two cases during June to July of 1985 and 1986 was examined.We foundthat (1)when the tropical convective activity moves westward to 10.5-15.5′N/140°E from eastside of 10.5-15.5°N/160°E,the northward shifts of the Meiyu/Baiu rain belt occurs;(2)themain factor which results in the northward and southward shifts of Meiyu/Baiu rain belt is thoughtas the 8,18 and 30 day oscillations of the tropical convective activity around West Pacific.Meanwhile,the wave train propagating from Lake Baikal via Okhotsk Sea to the tropics couldsometimes shift Baiu rain belt southward;(3)the onsets of Meiyu in China of both cases tend totake place just when the convective activity around lower latitudes moves westward through about140°E with the 8,18 and 30 day oscillation periods firstly coming to June.     

陕西地区环境剪应力的分布特征

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的宽频带数字地震资料，测定了陕西地区环境剪应力值τ0的分布，结果显示陕西地区存在着环境剪应力值τ0的高值区，最后对其与地质构造和地震活动性之间的关系进行了探讨。