Defining and operationalizing path dependency for the development and monitoring of adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathway approaches (APAs) have become an increasingly popular means of facilitating local and regional anticipatory planning under the influence of climate change. Many studies in this field of research identify path dependencies as a key barrier to adaptation efforts. However, their respective definitions of path dependency are often vague and impede a comprehensive integration of this concept into APAs. We fill this gap by systematically exploring the constituent characteristics and conditions of path dependency based on the original theoretical literature that emerged in the 1980s and early 2000s. We then propose an operationalization based on examples of flood risk management practice, and highlight ways in which APAs may contribute to revealing and anticipating technological and institutional path dependencies. This conceptual work serves as a comprehensive and systematic baseline for analyzing path dependency in empirical studies using APAs within and beyond the flood risk context.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化与人类健康

IPCC近期发布了第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告《气候变化：影响、适应和脆弱性》,其中第7章“健康、福祉和不断变化的社区结构”评估了气候变化对人类健康和福祉的当前影响以及未来风险,提出了应对气候变化的解决方案和适应策略。报告明确指出,气候变化对气候敏感传染病和慢性非传染性疾病,以及精神心理健康等的威胁正在增加,并表现出复合暴露和连锁事件的风险,且预计未来风险还会随着全球变暖而进一步加剧。实施积极和有效的气候变化适应措施并快速采取行动,将会在很大程度上减少和避免气候变化导致的健康风险,但不会完全消除所有风险。报告凸显了气候变化健康影响的严重性和紧迫性,未来需要加大对健康领域适应气候变化的科技创新、规划、行动和资金支持。     

Induction, adaptation and recovery of biological responses: implications for environmental monitoring

A wide range of biological responses have been used to identify exposure to contaminants, monitor spatial and temporal changes in contamination levels, provide early warning of environmental deterioration and indicate occurrences of adverse ecological consequences. To be useful in environmental monitoring, a biological response must reflect the environmental stress over time in a quantitative way. We here argue that the time required for initial induction, maximum induction, adaptation and recovery of these stress responses must first be fully understood and considered before they can be used in environmental monitoring, or else erroneous conclusions (both false-negative and false-positive) may be drawn when interpreting results. In this study, data on initial induction, maximum induction, adaptation and recovery of stress responses at various biological hierarchies (i.e., molecular, biochemical, physiological, behavioral, cytological, population and community responses) upon exposure to environmentally relevant levels of contaminants (i.e., metals, oil, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organochlorines, organophosphates, endocrine disruptors) were extracted from 922 papers in the biomarker literature and analyzed. Statistical analyses showed that: (a) many stress responses may decline with time after induction (i.e., adaptation), even if the level of stress remains constant; (b) times for maximum induction and recovery of biochemical responses are positively related; (c) there is no evidence to support the general belief that time for induction of responses at a lower biological hierarchy (i.e., molecular responses and biochemical responses) is shorter than that at higher hierarchy (i.e., physiological, cytological and behavioral responses), although longer recovery time is found for population and community responses; (d) there are significant differences in times required for induction and adaptation of biological responses caused by different types of contaminants; (e) times required for initial and maximum induction of physiological responses in fish are significantly longer than those in crustaceans; and (f) there is a paucity of data on adaptation and recovery of responses, especially those at population and community levels. The above analyses highlight: (1) the limitations and possible erroneous conclusions in the present use of biomarkers in biomonitoring programs, (2) the importance of understanding the details of temporal changes of biological responses before employing them in environmental management, and (3) the suitability of using specific animal groups as bioindicator species.     

Oxidative stress in two populations of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) with differing contaminant exposure histories

A population of killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) inhabiting a creosote-polluted inlet of the Elizabeth River demonstrates tolerance to the acute toxic effects exerted by contaminated sediments on reference site killifish. Previous data have suggested that upregulated antioxidant defenses contribute to short-term tolerance in killifish exposed to Elizabeth River sediments. This study investigated population differences in antioxidant defenses from wild caught Elizabeth River and reference population killifish in different seasons, and after being held in the laboratory. Parameters measured in the killifish were total glutathione concentrations (GSH_T), activities of glutathione reductase (GR), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), and lipid peroxidation (LPO), all in adult hepatic tissues. The Elizabeth River population exhibited greater GSH_T, higher GPx activities, and increased LPO as compared to the reference population. Sex specific population differences were also observed in GSH_T and GPx. Both populations displayed decreased GSH_T and increased GR from early to late summer, as well as after being held in the laboratory. This study indicates that there are many factors that may contribute to differences in levels of antioxidant defenses in addition to exposure to contaminants, including reproductive status and environmental conditions.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh

Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect agriculture in Bangladesh; however, there is limited information on smallholder farmers’ overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. This article estimates the impact of climatic shocks on the household agricultural income and, subsequently, on farmers’ adaptation strategies. Relying on data from a survey conducted in several communities in Bangladesh in 2011 and based on an IV probit approach, the results show that a 1 percentage point (pp) climate-induced decline in agricultural income pushes Bangladeshi households to adapt by almost 3 pp. Moreover, Bangladeshi farmers undertake a variety of adaptation options. However, several barriers to adaptation were identified, noticeably access to electricity and wealth. In this respect, policies can be implemented in order to assist the Bangladeshi farming community to adapt to climate change.

Policy relevance

This study contributes to the literature of adaptation to climate change by providing evidence of existing risk-coping strategies and by showing how a household’s ability to adapt to weather-related risk can be limited. This study helps to inform the design of policy in the context of increasing climatic stress on the smallholder farmers in Bangladesh.     

Emerging meta-organisations and adaptation to global climate change: Evidence from implementing adaptation in Nepal,Pakistan and Ghana

As developing countries move from policy to implementing adaptation to climate change, formal operational structures are emerging that exceed the expertise of any one actor. We refer to these arrangements as ‘meta-organisations’ that comprise many autonomous component organisations tackling adaptation. The meta-organisations set standards, define purposes, and specify appropriate means-ends criteria for delivering adaptation. Using empirical data from the three cases, Nepal, Pakistan and Ghana, the study identifies and analyses six attributes of the meta and component organisational structures. We argue that organisational structures are crucial to understanding adaptation, specifying policy and implementation. Our analysis demonstrates that while each country promotes similar objectives, the emerging structures are quite distinct, shaped by country-specific attributes and issues that lead to different outcomes. Nepal’s priority for a formal process has come at the cost of delayed implementation. Pakistan’s devolved approach lacks legitimacy to scale up the process nationally. Ghana’s use of existing decentralised structures and budgets relegates adaptation below other development priorities. These divergent structures arise from the different needs for legitimacy and accountability, and the relative priority attached to adaptation against other needs.     

Social capital,trust, and adaptation to climate change: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Climate change is expected to have particularly severe effects on poor agrarian populations. Rural households in developing countries adapt to the risks and impacts of climate change both individually and collectively. Empirical research has shown that access to capital—financial, human, physical, and social—is critical for building resilience and fostering adaptation to environmental stresses. Little attention, however, has been paid to how social capital generally might facilitate adaptation through trust and cooperation, particularly among rural households and communities. This paper addresses the question of how social capital affects adaptation to climate change by rural households by focusing on the relationship of household and collective adaptation behaviors. A mixed-methods approach allows us to better account for the complexity of social institutions—at the household, community, and government levels—which drive climate adaptation outcomes. We use data from interviews, household surveys, and field experiments conducted in 20 communities with 400 households in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Our results suggest that qualitative measures of trust predict contributions to public goods, a result that is consistent with the theorized role of social capital in collective action. Yet qualitative trust is negatively related to private household-level adaptation behaviors, which raises the possibility that social capital may, paradoxically, be detrimental to private adaptation. Policymakers should account for the potential difference in public and private adaptation behaviors in relation to trust and social capital when designing interventions for climate adaptation.     

The principal-agent problem and climate change adaptation on public lands

Climate change presents clear risks to natural resources, which carry potential economic costs. The limited nature of physical, financial, human and natural resources means that governments, as managers of natural resources, must make careful decisions regarding trade-offs and the potential future value of investments in climate change adaptation. This paper presents cost-benefit analysis of scenarios to characterise economic benefits of adaptation from the perspective of a public institution (the provincial government) and private agents (forest licensees). The example provided is the context of assisted migration strategies for regenerating forests that are currently being implemented in British Columbia to reduce future impacts of climate change on forests. The analysis revealed positive net present value of public investment in assisted migration across all scenarios under a range of conditions; however, private sector agents face disincentives to adopt these strategies. Uncertainty about how the costs, benefits and risks associated with climate change impacts will be distributed among public institutions and private actors influences incentives to adapt to climate change (the “principal-agent problem”) and further complicates adaptation. Absent development of risk-sharing mechanisms or re-alignment of incentives, uptake of assisted migration strategies by private agents is likely to be limited, creating longer-term risks for public institutions. Analyzing incentives and disincentives facing principals and agents using a well-known tool (cost-benefit analysis) can help decision-makers to identify and address underlying barriers to climate change adaptation in the context of public lands management.