金沙江下游及三峡段水文气象因子演变与响应的分析

对金沙江下游及三峡段3个水文站1954~2008年径流序列和2个气象站1951~2008年降雨、气温序列运用滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall法进行趋势性检验,利用有序聚类法、均值检验法分析突变性及小波分析法进行周期性诊断,并应用Pearson法对径流、降雨和气温的相关关系进行研究。研究表明:(1)研究区径流量的年内分配不均匀性和年际变化不显著。(2)金沙江下游段屏山站的径流量呈上升趋势,并在1997年发生突变,但该区域宜宾站的降雨量呈下降趋势并在1991年发生突变;三峡段寸滩站和宜昌站的径流量呈下降趋势,分别在1968年和2005年发生突变,同时该区域沙坪坝站的降雨量呈上升趋势并在1961年和1995年发生突变。(3)径流和降雨时间序列都存在小于10a的主周期以及20a以上的次周期。(4)各水文站夏季径流量受同期降雨量和同期气温的共同影响,而秋季径流量受前期气温的影响最大。     

青藏高原雪冰中碳质气溶胶含量变化

文中采用供氧两步加热的方法对过滤到石英膜上的雪冰中碳质气溶胶含量进行分析,其中有机碳(OC)和元素碳(EC)分别在340和650℃的条件下进行热解、氧化分离,生成的CO2转化成CH4并由气相色谱仪氢火焰离子化检测器(FID)检测其含量。空白测试表明,该系统的OC本底值为(0·50±0·04)(1σ)μgC,EC为(0·38±0·04)(1σ)μgC。利用这套分析系统对青藏高原8条冰川的34个雪冰和降水样品中OC和EC的含量进行了测试。结果表明,在青藏高原雪冰中OC和EC含量自东向西、自北向南呈明显的下降趋势(西昆仑除外)。在高原东北部EC的质量分数相对较高,平均为79·2ng·g-1;在喜马拉雅西段EC的质量分数最低,平均为4·3ng·g-1。在冰川表面,雪的融化使雪冰中碳质气溶胶聚集,并导致其含量明显升高,该过程降低了雪表面的反照率,加速了冰川的消融。     

Seasonal Stratification Characteristics of Vertical Profiles of Water Body in Lake Lugu

For the purpose of exploring seasonal stratification characteristics of water hydrochemistry, the seasonal dynamics and vertical thermal stratification of water temperature in Lake Lugu, the vertical profiles of water temperature (Temp), Electrical Conductivity (EC), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), pH and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) of Lake Lugu were monitored in January, April, July and October 2015, respectively. The results indicated that water body of Lake Lugu appeared thermal stratification in spring, summer and autumn, however, in winter, the water temperature in vertical direction was homogeneous. The thermocline was located between 10 and 25 m, nevertheless, it moved down to range from 20 to 30 m in autumn. In addition, water temperature in hypolimnion was maintained almost as a constant and consistent with annual temperature, indicating water body was stable all along. The results showed that the thermal stratification had some influences on vertical distributions of DO, EC, pH and Chl-a. The significant stratification of DO, EC and pH was found, especially in summer, DO and pH values in thermocline peaked due to greatly stable thermal stratification and temperature increase. In hypolimnion, DO concentration and pH value were very small. Moreover, Chl-a concentration was higher in the surface and lower in the bottom water, implying that human should be highly alter to prevent the emergence of a large area of algae in Lake Lugu. EC took on decreasing variation, besides, lower in the thermocline. While,Lugu Lake water salinity was lower and substantially constant (~ 0.10‰), without considering the effects of salinity, both in vertical sections and in epilimnion, thermocline and hypolimnion, there all existed a simple linear function of the relationship between EC andwater temperature, showing that Lugu Lake was affected by natural climate and keeps natural state.     

华北平原典型工业城市秋、冬季大气细颗粒物污染特征

济宁市是位于华北平原大气污染传输通道上的工业城市,为研究其秋、冬季细颗粒物(PM_2.5)的污染特征,在市区的3个站点进行了PM_2.5的同步滤膜采样。采样期为2018年10月15日至2019年1月31日,涵盖非采暖期和采暖期(自2019年11月15日始),共270个小流量滤膜样品。研究结果表明,济宁市秋、冬季PM_2.5平均质量浓度为(98.9±48.8)μg/m³,采暖期PM_2.5质量浓度(107.1±52.8)μg/m³显著高于非采暖期(77.4±27.8)μg/m³。PM_2.5的化学组成以二次无机气溶胶、有机碳和元素碳为主,占比分别为52.4%、10.9%和7.5%。S、Cl、K、Ca、Fe和Si元素平均质量浓度之和占元素总平均质量浓度的78.8%,是PM_2.5中的主要元素。采暖期PM_2.5的主要化学组分质量浓度显著高于非采暖期。二次有机碳是有机碳的重要来源,占比78...     

What happens after climate change adaptation projects end: A community-based approach to ex-post assessment of adaptation projects

Over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. Despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors’ “best practices,” very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. In this article, I propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. This methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. I apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across Ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. My analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. The results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. I find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. These findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. This analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation.     

哈维氏弧菌对泥蚶的毒性及半致死浓度研究

为构建泥蚶感染弧菌标准技术体系,本研究采用哈维氏弧菌浸泡感染和注射胁迫两种攻毒方式对泥蚶进行了急性毒性实验,观察泥蚶在菌液胁迫下的存活情况,分析哈维氏弧菌对泥蚶的半致死浓度。浸泡感染实验结果表明,随着感染水体中弧菌升高,泥蚶死亡起始时间和最大日死亡率时间均有所提前,泥蚶死亡情况呈现上升趋势,当浸泡浓度超过2×10⁷CFU/mL,泥蚶15 d累计死亡率接近100%。注射胁迫实验结果表明,泥蚶死亡率与弧菌注射浓度呈显著正相关(r=0.964,P<0.01)。Probit回归分析结果显示,哈维氏弧菌浸泡感染泥蚶7 d后停止实验,15 d的半致死浓度(LC₅₀)为1.35×10⁷CFU/mL;注射胁迫下的96 h半致死剂量(96 h LD₅₀)为2.12×10⁷CFU/g,说明哈维氏弧菌对泥蚶有明显的毒害作用。研究结果为泥蚶对哈维氏弧菌耐受性提供数据参考,并且为泥蚶弧菌病防治提供了理论基础。     

基于ECMWF细网格、GRAPES _MESO的短时强降水潜势预报和检验

摘要：利用2016-2018年6-8月ECMWF细网格、GRAPES _MESO、黑龙江省822个自动站资料研究黑龙江省6-8月短时强降水（一般短时强降水和极端短时强降水）的预报方法和各项影响因子指标与他们之间的融合。采用双线插值法或临近格点法、分位数法、配料法、排除法、多重分析法，形成以水汽、不稳定、抬升为框架的客观预报方法。研究发现，强降水的环境背景不仅受限于各物理因子阈值，也与他们之间融合密切相关。各因子间存在一定旬差异和日较差，夜间与水汽相关的各阈值明显大于白天，白天热力不稳定性高于夜间。6月中上旬与水汽含量相关的各因子阈值小于其他时段。从检验结果上看，由于强降水的突发性、局地形和研究方法以及模式本身的特性，预报的空报率非常大，漏报率较低，TS评分最低且随着分布密度的降低而降低。一般强降水检验中，两种模式点对点检验的TS评分为0.015左右，14km和40km点对面检验夜间TS评分约0.03和0.08。极端强降水检验中，两种模式点对点检验TS评分约0.004，14km和40km点对面检验准确率约分别为0.005和0.02。7月份由于强降水分布密度相对较大，检验效果也相对较好。一般性强降水EC细网格TS评分高于GRAPES_MESO，而极端强降水检验TS评分刚好相反。