CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.     

Effects of rapid temperature changes on HK,PK and HSP70 of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Litopenaeus vannamei</Emphasis> in different seasons

Activities of hexokinase(HK), pyrnvate kinase(PK)and levels of HSPT0 were measured to evaluate the response of Litopenaeus vannamei to rapid temperature changes under controlled laboratory conditions. Shrimps were subjected to a quick temperature change from 27℃ to 17℃ for the summer case(Cold temperature treatment), or from 17℃ to 27℃ for the winter case(Warm temperature treatment). After 0. 5, 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h of exposure time, shrimps were sampled and prepared for further analysis. The results showed that the effect of acute temperature changes on activities of HK was significant. Patterns of variations of the two glycolytic enzymes suggested that enzymes in the glycolysis cycle could adjust their activities to meet the acute temperature change. The HSP70 level increased in both cold and warm temperature treatments, suggesting that the rapid temperature changes activated the process of body's self-protection. But the difference in expression peak of HSP70 might be related to the different body size and the higher thermal sensitivity to temperature increase than to temperature decrease of L. Vannamei.     

苏通大桥结构健康状态评估技术研究与应用（2）：主梁损伤预警

为了建立＂环境因素归一化＂的苏通大桥主梁损伤预警方法,本文对苏通大桥主梁240天的小波包能量谱与温度实测数据进行了季节相关性研究。分析结果表明,苏通大桥主梁的小波包能量谱与温度具有明显的季节相关性,其特征频带能量比的日平均值,随着温度的季节变化在一年中可以发生平均约200%的变化。在此基础上,采用6次多项式模型对小波包能量谱—温度进行了统计建模,并采用均值控制图法对特征频带能量比的异常变化进行了统计模式识别。结果表明,运用本文方法可以有效地消除温度的季节变化对斜拉桥实测小波包能量谱的影响,较好地识别出结构损伤引起的特征频带能量比10%的异常变化,适合于苏通大桥主梁的实时在线监测。     

地电场日变幅与地电暴分析

利用昌黎台地电场资料分析地电场日变幅季节变化特征,显示有季节效应,EW、SN测向夏季日变幅地震最大,而出现最小值的季节两测向表现不一。分析认为,与地电场观测信号的复杂多样性有关。地电暴可以记录到磁暴急始变幅、初相、主相的变化形态,但由于电场和磁场之间存在一阶差分的关系,并不是所有地电暴都和地磁暴变化一致,甚至有些地电暴没有变化形态,而是出现高频上下起伏的脉冲形式。利用多台地电场资料,对同一个K指数为7的磁暴进行急始变幅、扰动最大变幅分析,结果显示,各台不尽相同,可能与台址介质的电性结构有关。     

与中国东部天气气候相关的大气季节内振荡研究及业务应用

回顾了近年来国内外对大气季节内振荡(ISO)活动影响东亚地区,尤其是影响我国东部地区冬夏季降水变化的研究成果,重点阐述了夏季影响我国长江流域的ISO来源及影响路径,并对目前国际上基于热带大气季节内振荡活动开展的次季节-季节预测研究计划和业务应用以及我国热带大气季节内振荡的业务现状进行评述。      

基于因子分析和季节趋势滤波方法的地球物理因子识别以唐山台跨断层数据为例

利用因子分析可以有效地找出多个变量的公共因子, 找出隐含因素; 基于季节趋势滤波方法, 可以分析序列的周期成分和趋势变化特征, 结合区域地震特征, 确定序列的物理意义。 本文将这两种方法结合, 提出了完整的地球物理因子识别方法, 并将其应用于唐山地震台跨断层形变短基线序列, 获得了具有物理意义的三个公共因子, 即远场构造因子、 台站因子和近场构造因子。     

利用澳洲北斗GEO数据改进Klobuchar模型

利用澳大利亚科廷大学双频北斗GEO数据,分析了2013、2014年该地电离层VTEC的日变化、季节变化特性。在此基础上,针对Klobuchar模型在计算穿刺点VTEC上存在的不足提出一种改进模型。最后利用1 a的数据对改进模型计算VTEC的精度进行评估。结果表明,改进模型计算VTEC的精度明显高于原模型,绝大部分月份精度提高超过10%,总体精度达到64%以上。     

Seasonal evolution of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems of a temperate glacier revealed by hydrological analysis

Englacial and subglacial drainage systems of temperate glaciers have a strong influence on glacier dynamics, glacier-induced floods, glacier-weathering processes, and runoff from glacierized drainage basins. Proglacial discharge is partly controlled by the geometry of the glacial drainage network and by the process of producing meltwater. The glacial-drainage system of some alpine glaciers has been characterized using a model based on proglacial discharge analysis. In this paper, we apply cross-correlation analysis to hourly hydro-climatic data collected from China＇s Hailuogou Glacier, a typical temperate glacier in Mt. Gongga, to study the seasonal status changes of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems by discharge-temperature （Q-T） time lag analy-sis. During early ablation season （April-May） of 2003, 2004 and 2005, the change of englacial and subglacial drainage system usually leads several outburst flood events, which are also substantiated by observing the leakage of supraglacial pond and cre-vasses pond water during field works in April, 2008. At the end of ablation season （October-December）, the glacial-drainage net-works become less hydro-efficient. Those events are evidenced by hourly hydro-process near the terminus of Hailuogou Glacier, and the analysis of Q-T time lags also can be a good indicator of those changes. However, more detailed observations or experi-ments, e.g. dye-tracing experiment and recording borehole water level variations, are necessary to describe the evolutionary status and processes of englacial and subglacial drainage systems evolution during ablation season.     

污灌农田土壤动物及其对重金属污染的响应——以开封市化肥河污灌区为例

开封市化肥河污灌区土壤重金属(Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd、Ni)含量明显高于对照区,Cd含量超标严重。采用内梅罗指数法将污灌区土壤重金属污染分为轻污染、中污染和重污染3种类型。在此基础上,运用生态分析和统计分析的方法,研究了污灌区不同重金属污染样点的土壤动物个体与种群特征。结果表明:(1)污灌区土壤动物优势种群为线虫和等节跳科,总的个体数量和种群数量春季(分别为3158只和74种)均多于秋季(分别为1963只和57种)。(2)3种不同污染级别土壤中,土壤动物种群数量春季均少于秋季,春季样点间的种群相似性低于秋季。(3)土壤动物水平分布受重金属污染的影响较大,污染土壤与对照土壤中土壤动物数量有显著差异;重金属污染严重的样点,土壤动物的表聚性较低。(4)土壤动物密度-种群指数(DG)秋季大于春季,春秋两季都随重金属综合污染指数的增大而降低。(5)土壤动物对重金属污染的响应表现为个体数量较种群数量明显,水平分布较垂直分布明显,春季较秋季明显。