全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征

基于区域气候模式COSMO-CLM及5个全球气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M)1961—2100年逐日降水数据,采用重现期法计算20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量,研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃目标下长江流域极端降水的变化特征。研究发现:全球升温1.5℃目标下,长江流域20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为78和93 mm,相比1986—2005年将增加10%和9%;空间上表现为中下游普遍增加,最大增幅145%,上游地区则主要表现为减少趋势;全球升温2.0℃目标下,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别为81和98 mm,将较基准期上升14%和15%;中下游极端降水量显著上升,最大增幅约188%,上游成都平原以西以北明显下降;随全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,20 a与50 a一遇极端降水量分别增加4%和6%,中下游较上游增幅更明显,最大增幅136%。因此,将温室气体减排目标控制在1.5℃水平对减缓长江流域尤其是中下游地区极端降水事件影响具有重要的意义。     

时局图(1898年)

《时局图》是中国近代史上一幅著名的时事漫画,最早刊登于1898年7月的香港报纸《辅仁文社社刊》,漫画内容主要表现19世纪末西方列强在中国瓜分势力范围的概况。原版本的《时局图》以各种动物表示各国,并附以注释解说:北方的熊,盘踞东三省和蒙古,是指俄国;英国被喻为犬,占有长江流域;盘踞中南半岛的蛤(即蛤蟆),往广东、广西、云南张手,譬喻法国,肠(一说是     

资料集锦

我国50年243个湖泊消失长江流域本土鱼类濒危最近发布的《长江保护与发展报告2011》显示,近30年来长江流域消失面积在1平方公里以上的湖泊96个。来自我国第二次湖泊调查的最新数据显示,近50年来,我国消失的面积大于1平方公里的湖泊多达243个。     

我国50年243个湖泊消失长江流域本土鱼类濒危

最近发布的《长江保护与发展报告2011》显示,近30年来长江流域消失面积在1平方公里以上的湖泊96个。来自我国第二次湖泊调查的最新数据显示,近50年来,我国消失的面积大于1平方公里的湖泊多达243个。     

世纪绝响 告别演出——2012年6月6日金星凌日介绍

众首翘盼的长江流域日全食华丽登场,已经成为过去。下一次中国境内精彩的日全食将上演于西北和华北平原上空,北京城也处于全食带上。不过,那是26年之后的事了。近期将有两次别有情趣的日环食：2010年1月15日,环食带经过云南、四川、重庆、湖北、河南、山东;2012年5月21日,环食带经过广西、广东、香港、澳门、江西、福建、浙江、台湾。     

长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合

基于长江流域147个气象站1960-2005年最大值降水序列(AM)与超门限峰值降水序列(POT),选取4大类20种分布函数,采用极大似然法和线性矩法估算了参数,经柯尔莫洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验,确定了降水极值的最优概率模型.对AM与POT两套极端强降水序列的频率分析均表明,Wakeby分布函数能够较好的拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布.同时指出了降水极值的拟合存在的不确定性.     

Correlation analysis of persistent heavy rainfall events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global outgoing longwave radiation in the preceding month

Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) daily satellite dataset of global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period of 1974--2004 and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1971--2004, the linkage between persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global OLR leading up to those events (with 1- to 30-day lag) was investigated. The results reveal that there is a significant connection between the initiation of PHR events over the study area and anomalous convective activity over the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent, and tropical western Pacific Ocean. During the 30-day period prior to the onset of PHR events, the major significantly anomalous convective centers have an apparent dipole structure, always with enhanced convection in the west and suppressed convection in the east. This dipole structure continuously shifts eastward with time during the 30-day lead period. The influence of the anomalous convective activity over the tropical oceans on the initiation of PHR events over the study area is achieved via an interaction between tropical and extratropical latitudes. More specifically, anomalous convective activity weakens the Walker circulation cell over the tropical Indian Ocean first. This is followed by a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon background state and the excitation and dispersion of Rossby wave activity over Eurasia. Finally, a major modulation of the large scale background circulation occurs. As a result, the condition of a phase-lock among major large scale circulation features favoring PHR events is established over the study area.     

西北太平洋夏季风对中国长江流域夏季降水的影响

利用1979～2005年NCEP/NCAR的环流场再分析资料和降水资料, 通过对季风期降水、 大气环流、 水汽输送及低频振荡等方面的分析, 分别从时间和空间上分析了西北太平洋夏季风与中国长江流域夏季降水的联系。结果表明:(1) 西北太平洋夏季风与中国长江流域夏季降水存在显著的负相关关系, 在西北太平洋夏季风强盛时, 副热带高压异常偏北, 其西侧的偏南气流异常偏弱, 使得我国长江流域形成低层异常环流及水汽输送的辐散区, 从而造成长江流域夏季降水偏少; 而在西北太平洋夏季风减弱的年份, 西太平洋副高异常偏南偏西, 在长江流域以南地区形成异常偏强的偏南风水汽输送, 使得长江流域成为南、 北距平风的汇合区, 其上空对流活动异常活跃, 非常有利于长江流域的降水。 (2) 东亚局地Hadley垂直环流在强、 弱季风年也显著不同, 在强季风年里, Hadley局地环流异常偏弱, 长江流域上空出现的下沉运动距平, 使得该地区降水减弱, 而弱季风年则正好相反。 (3) 西北太平洋夏季风存在显著的气候平均的大气季节内振荡 (CISO), 在西北太平洋夏季风减弱时期, 长江流域降水同时受到源自热带西北太平洋西传CISO和源自热带印度洋东传CISO的共同影响, 可能造成了某种锁相关系, 从而造成降水偏多; 而在强季风年里长江流域只受由西太平洋西传的CISO的影响, 不容易激发降水。     

Experimental research on the impact of Corbicula fluminea on DIN exchange at a tidal flat sediment-water interface

Based on a simulative experiment and a comparison analysis, the effect of bivalve Corbiculafluminea activity on sediment-water exchange of dissolved inorganic nitrogen （DIN） is studied. The areas included three intertidal flat sites of the Changjiang （Yangtze） River estuary in China. The interface exchange flux of ammonium, nitrate and nitrite in the short experiment （6 h） was -46.4-40, -74.8-929.1 and 2.5-14.6 μmol/（m^2·h）, respectively. It was found that the burrowing activities of C. fluminea increased NH4 and NOi release from sediments to overlying water in the short-term experiment. During long-term incubation, NH4 and NOi released in turn from the sediments. At the beginning of incubation, bioturbation by C. fluminea could accelerate NH2 release from sediments 2-17 times in different sites, resulting in stronger nitrification and increased NOi concentrations in the overlying water. Sediment profile analysis post-incubation shows that organic matter mineralization and sediment-water NH4 exchange had been stimulated by C. fluminea bioturbation and bioirrigation during the experiment. Therefore, C. fluminea activities such as excretion, burrowing, irrigation and turbation can effectively alter nitrogen dynamics and accelerate and stimulate nitrogen exchange and cycling at the sediment-water interface.