NOAA研究人员发现预测太阳耀斑的线索

NOAA空间天气预报中心的研究人员最近找到一种提前2～3天预报太阳耀斑发生位置与规模的方法,其准确度达目前最高水平。该研究结果发表在2010年2月的Astrophysical Journal Letters杂志上,作者为AlyshaReinard等。太阳耀斑的预报着眼点为数天中太阳表面之下的磁场扭曲变化。     

An Assessment of the Quality of Surface Sensible Heat Flux Derived from Reanalysis Data through Comparison with Station Observations in Northwest China

The present study compares seasonal and interdecadal variations in surface sensible heat flux over Northwest China between station observations and ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the period 1960-2000.While the seasonal variation in sensible heat flux is found to be consistent between station observations and the two reanalysis datasets,both land-air temperatures difference and surface wind speed show remarkable systematic differences.The sensible heat flux displays obvious interdecadal variability that is season-dependent.In the ERA-40 data,the sensible heat flux in spring,fall,and winter shows interdecadal variations that are similar to observations.In the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data,sensible heat flux variations are inconsistent with and sometimes even opposite to observations.While surface wind speeds from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data show interdecadal changes consistent with station observations,variations in land-air temperature difference differ greatly from the observed dataset.In terms of land-air temperature difference and surface wind speed,almost no consistency with observations can be identified in the ERA-40 data,apart from the land-air temperature difference in fall and winter.These inconsistencies pose a major obstacle to the application in climate studies of surface sensible heat flux derived from reanalysis data.     

Influences of Climate Change and Its Interannual Variability on Surface Energy Fluxes from 1948 to 2000

Understanding changes in land surface processes over the past several decades requires knowledge of trends and interannual variability in surface energy fluxes in response to climate change. In our study, the Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), driven by the latest updated hybrid reanalysis-observational surface climate data from Princeton University, is used to obtain global distributions of surface energy fluxes during 1948 to 2000. Based on the climate data and simulation results, long-term trends and interannual variability (IAV) of both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes for this span of 50+ years are derived and analyzed. Regions with strong long-term trends and large IAV for both climatic variables and surface energy fluxes are identified. These analyses reveal seasonal variations in the spatial patterns of climate and surface fluxes; however, spatial patterns in trends and IAV for surface energy fluxes over the past ～50 years do not fully correspond to those for climatic variables, indicating complex responses of land surfaces to changes in the climatic forcings.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PRECEDING PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH INDEXES OF MAIN RAINING SEASONS

With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.     

Satellite Monitoring of the Surface Water and Energy Budget in the Central Tibetan Plateau

The water and energy cycle in the Tibetan Plateau is an important component of Monsoon Asia and the global energy and water cycle. Using data at a CEOP （Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period）-Tibet site, this study presents a first-order evaluation on the skill of weather forecasting from GCMs and satellites in producing precipitation and radiation estimates. The satellite data, together with the satellite leaf area index, are then integrated into a land data assimilation system （LDAS-UT） to estimate the soil moisture and surface energy budget on the Plateau. The system directly assimilates the satellite microwave brightness temperature, which is strongly affected by soil moisture but not by cloud layers, into a simple biosphere model. A major feature of this system is a dual-pass assimilation technique, which can auto-calibrate model parameters in one pass and estimate the soil moisture and energy budget in the other pass. The system outputs, including soil moisture, surface temperature, surface energy partition, and the Bowen ratio, are compared with observations, land surface models, the Global Land Data Assimilation System, and four general circulation models. The results show that this satellite data-based system has a high potential for a reliable estimation of the regional surface energy budget on the Plateau.     

Analysis of Isentropic Potential Vorticity for a Strong Cold Wave During 2004/2005 Winter

Using the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data from 1 December 2004 to 28 February 2005, the isentropic potential vorticity （IPV） analysis of a strong cold wave from 22 December 2004 to 1 January 2005 was made. It is found that the strong cold air of the cold wave originated from the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere of the high latitude in the Eurasian continent and the Arctic area. Before the outbreak of the cold wave, the strong cold air of high PV propagated down to the south of Lake Baikal, and was cut off by a low PV air of low latitude origin, forming a dipole-type circulation pattern with the low PV center （blocking high） in the northern Eurasian continent and the high PV one （low vortex） in the southern part. Along with decaying of the low PV center, the high PV center （strong cold air） moved towards the southeast along the northern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. When it arrived in East China, the air column of high PV rapidly stretched downward, leading to increase in its cyclonic vorticity, which made the East Asian major trough to deepen rapidly, and finally induced the outbreak of the cold wave. Further analysis indicates that in the southward and downward propagation process of the high PV center, the air flow west and north of the high PV center on isentropic surface subsided along the isentropic surface, resulting in rapid development of Siberian high, finally leading to the southward outbreak of the strong cold wave.     

海洋混凝土结构表面自由氯离子含量时变规律及对其寿命影响

表面氯离子含量(C_s)是研究海洋环境条件下混凝土结构耐久性和服役寿命的氯离子扩散方程的边界条件,是海洋混凝土结构耐久性分析和定量设计的重要参数。依据国内外大量自然暴露试验与工程实测数据,通过采用Excel、Origin等数据分析软件进行数据统计和回归分析,确定了海洋混凝土结构表面自由氯离子含量(C_(sf))与表面总氯离子含量(C_(st))之间的相互关系,探讨了海洋混凝土结构的C_(sf)时变规律,建立了C_(sf)与暴露时间之间的关系表达式及其取值范围,并运用可靠度理论和修正氯离子扩散理论分析了C_(sf)时变性对海洋混凝土结构寿命的影响。结果表明:C_(sf)与C_(st)线性相关,且C_(sf)随着暴露时间的延长呈指数或者幂函数的增长关系;采用不同的C_(sf)时变性规律,对海洋混凝土结构寿命具有重大的影响。     

东中国海碳循环时空变化特征:三维物理-生物地球化学数值模型研究

In the east of China's seas, there is a wide range of the continental shelf. The nutrient cycle and the carbon cycle in the east of China's seas exhibit a strong variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. On the basis of a regional ocean modeling system(ROMS), a three dimensional physical-biogeochemical model including the carbon cycle with the resolution(1/12)°×(1/12)° is established to investigate the physical variations, ecosystem responses and carbon cycle consequences in the east of China's seas. The ROMS-Nutrient Phytoplankton Zooplankton Detritus(NPZD) model is driven by daily air-sea fluxes(wind stress, long wave radiation, short wave radiation, sensible heat and latent heat, freshwater fluxes) that derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis2 from 1982 to 2005. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the observed seasonal variation characteristics over the same period in the East China Sea. The integrated air-sea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China's seas reveals a strong seasonal cycle, functioning as a source of CO_2 to the atmosphere from June to October, while serving as a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere in the other months. The 24 a mean value of airsea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China's seas is about 1.06 mol/(m~2·a), which is equivalent to a regional total of3.22 Mt/a, indicating that in the east of China's seas there is a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide in sea water in the east of China's seas has an increasing rate of 1.15 μatm/a(1μtm/a=0.101 325Pa), but p H in sea water has an opposite tendency, which decreases with a rate of 0.001 3 a~(–1) from 1982 to 2005.Biological activity is a dominant factor that controls the pCO_2 air in the east of China's seas, and followed by a temperature. The inverse relationship between the interannual variability of air-sea CO_2 flux averaged from the domain area and Ni?o3 SST Index indicates that the carbon cycle in the east of China's seas has a high correlation with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).     

B/S架构测震实时波形可视化研究

介绍一种B/S架构下测震实时波形可视化方法,能够自动侦测Jopens数据库中数据,并解压缩测震waveform数据表的连续波形数据,将数据以字符串形式进行存储。通过应用fusionchart实现动态实时展示。在实时地震波形的移植性上推进一步,为地震数据的展示与对外界的服务奠定了基础。     

A three-dimensional semi-implicit unstructured grid finite volume ocean model

A new three-dimensional semi-implicit finite-volume ocean model has been developed for simulating the coastal ocean circulation, which is based on the staggered C -unstructured non-orthogonal grid in the horizontal direction and z -level grid in the vertical direction. The three-dimensional model is discretized by the semi-implicit finite-volume method, in that the free-surface and the vertical diffusion are semi-implicit, thereby removing stability limitations associated with the surface gravity wave and vertical diffusion terms. The remaining terms in the momentum equations are discretized explicitly by an integral method. The partial cell method is used for resolving topography, which enables the model to better represent irregular topography. The model has been tested against analytical cases for wind and tidal oscillation circulation, and is applied to simulating the tidal flow in the Bohai Sea. The results are in good agreement both with the analytical solutions and measurement results.