2011年第26届世界大学生运动会海上基地选址的气象条件分析

在分析深圳50多年来8月高影响天气的基础上,利用自动气象站网和海上实时观测资料,用数理统计和数值模拟的方法,对海上基地三个选址方案:桔钓沙、沙鱼涌和官湖海域的风环境场进行对比,重点分析首选方案桔钓沙海区域的8月风场变化情况,为2011年世界大学生运动会海上基地选址提供科学依据。结果表明:桔钓沙海域风速比陆地大,平均风速3 m/s,极大风速20 m/s的概率90%,风向摆角符合赛事要求的概率80%,说明桔钓沙海域风环境能够满足海上赛事的要求;通过对典型形势场数值模拟,桔钓沙海域的风速比沙鱼涌和官湖海域大,且风向稳定,风向摆动小,在三个待选方案中为最佳方案。另外,分析还发现桔钓沙海域海陆风效应明显,比赛安排在10—17时更适宜。     

城市化进程对南京市气温变化影响的主成分分析

为揭示城市环境气象的蠕变过程,利用南京站1956—2007年逐日气温资料及南京市1995—2006年的统计年鉴数据,通过主成分分析法,研究了南京市年平均气温变化与城市化进程之间的关系。结果表明:(1)1956年以来南京市年平均气温、年平均最高、最低气温总体呈上升趋势,增温率分别为0.28℃/(10 a)、0.18℃/(10 a)、0.33℃/(10 a),特别是1990年以后,增温速率进一步加大。(2)城市化进程中影响气温变化的主导因子为:城市下垫面性质、工业排污和人口数量。(3)1990年代后南京市城市化进程与年平均气温和年平均最低气温之间存在显著的正相关关系。     

公共气象服务体系建构中的安全社区(村)发展

在阐述公共气象服务体系建构的意义与内涵的基础上,引入并分析了新公共服务理论对于社区公共服务发展的启示与借鉴,结合东莞市创建安全气象社区(村)的实践,初步探讨了基层公共气象服务建构的主要内容和方向。     

基于需求为导向的公共气象服务层次和发展重点

根据传播理论、消费者行为理论和行为改变理论,分析公共气象服务的4个阶段和4个境界,提出发展公共气象服务的层次和发展重点,增强公共气象服务核心竞争力。公共气象服务4个层次是:气象信息、气象知识、气象行动和气象幸福度;核心竞争力就是:预报准确率和"以人为本,无微不至,无所不在"的服务理念。     

A Study on a Heavy Rainfall Event Triggered by an Inverted Typhoon Trough in Shandong Province

A heavy rainfall event that occurred in Shandong Province in 26 28 August 2004 was caused mainly by Typhoon Acre and cold air activities related to a westerly trough. The event was triggered by an inverted typhoon trough, which was closely associated with the intensification of the low-level southeasterly flow and the northward transport of heat and momentum in the periphery of the typhoon low. A numerical simulation of this event is performed using the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 with two-way interactive and triply-nested grids, and the structure of the inverted typhoon trough is studied. Furthermore, the formation and development mechanism of the inverted typhoon trough and a mesoscale vortex are discussed through a vorticity budget analysis. The results show that the heavy rainfall was induced by the strong convergence between the strong and weak winds within the inverted typhoon trough. Dynamic effects of the low-level jet and the diabatic heating of precipitation played an important role in the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex. The vorticity budget analysis suggests that the divergence term in the low troposphere, the horizontal advection term, and the convection term in the middle troposphere were main contributors to positive vorticity. Nonetheless, at the same pressure level, the effect of the divergence term and that of the adveetion term were opposite to each other. In the middle troposphere, the vertical transport term made a positive contribution while the tilting term made a negative contribution, and the total vorticity tendency was the net result of their counteractions. It is found that the change tendency of the relative vorticity was not uniform horizontally. A strong positive vorticity tendency occurred in the southeast of the mesoscale vortex, which is why the heavy rainfall was concentrated there. The increase of positive vorticity in the low （upper） troposphere was caused by horizontal convergence （upward transport of vorticity from the lower troposphere）. Therefore, the development of the inverted typhoon trough and the formation of the mesoscale vortex were mainly attributed to the vorticity generated in the low troposphere, and also the vertical transport of vorticity from the low and middle troposphere.     

暴雨和中尺度气象学问题

对近年来暴雨和中尺度气象学的进展进行了综合评述，这包括（１）暴雨发生的条件；（２）强风暴和中尺度对流系统概念模式；（３）中尺度系统的数值模拟；（４）中尺度动力学问题；（５）暴雨预报等。对于暴雨和中尺度气象学将来研究的问题也作了讨论。     

卫星云参数处理方法和1991年云气候特征分析

参考国际卫星去气候计划和目前出现的几种云参数处理方法＾［１］［２］，设计了一种适用于东亚和热带海洋地区的云参数处理方法，并着重进行了总云量的反演。处理资源取自ＧＭＳ－４的Ｓ．ＶＩＳＳＲ资料＾［３］，覆盖范围为５０＾ｏＮ－３０＾ｏＳ，８０＾ｏ－１７５＾ｏＥ。时间为１９９１年的１、４、７、１０四个月。使用上述方法对卫星资料计算得到了日、旬、月的平均云量。通过与其它资源和处理结果的对比分析，对处理方法和