北极海冰密集度预报对大气强迫敏感性的个例研究

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model （MIT-gcm） is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the Na-tional Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China （NMEFC）, and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System （NCEP GFS） is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model （Polar WRF） model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializa-tions： （1） the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder （SSMIS） and （2） the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS （AMSR-E）. Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmo-spheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.     

硅浓度对筒柱藻B169生长、叶绿素荧光参数、总脂含量及脂肪酸组成的影响

本文以底栖硅藻筒柱藻(Cylindrotheca sp.)为实验材料,研究了一次性培养过程中,不同硅浓度即:0mg/L(Si0)、8.35mg/L(Si1)、33.4mg/L(Si2)、133.6mg/L(Si3)、534.4mg/L(Si4)和1068.8mg/L(Si5)对藻细胞密度、叶绿素荧光参数、叶绿素含量、总脂含量及脂肪酸组成的影响。结果表明:第5~9d,筒柱藻的细胞密度随硅浓度的增加而增加,硅浓度较高的Si3、Si4和Si5处理组的细胞密度显著高于硅浓度较低的Si0、Si1和Si2处理组的细胞密度。第1~9d,Si5处理组的荧光参数F_v/F_m(PSII的最大光能转换效率)和F_v/F_o(PSII的潜在活性)均显著低于其它处理组。第3~6d,Si3处理组的上述荧光参数均显著高于其它处理组。第1~7d,Si4和Si5处理组的荧光参数φPSII(PSII的实际光能转化效率)和rETR(相对电子传递效率)均显著低于其它处理组,其中Si5处理组的上述荧光参数最低,其次是Si4处理组。筒柱藻的叶绿素含量随着硅浓度的增加而增加,到Si3处理组叶绿素含量达最高值,之后叶绿素含量下降,Si3处理组的叶绿素含量最高,Si0处理组的叶绿素含量最低。筒柱藻的总脂含量随硅浓度的增加而降低,Si0处理组的总脂含量最高,Si5处理组的总脂含量最低。筒柱藻的主要脂肪酸是1 4:0(5.1 5~8.7l%)、16:0(22.40~42.27%)、1 6:1n-7(3l.40~33.12%)、16:3n-4(1.89~8.45%)、20:4n-6(5.95~11.39%)和20:5n-3(EPA)(3.47~8.07%)。饱和脂肪酸含量随着硅浓度的增加而降低,多不饱和脂肪酸含量随着硅浓度的增加而增加,硅浓度对单不饱和脂肪酸的影响差异不显著。经济价值较大的20:4n-6和20:5n-3含量均在Si3和Si4处理组达到最高值。     

长江口北港口门海域悬沙输运机制分析

根据2012年10月24日至11月1日在长江口北港口门海域获取的沉积动力学数据,采用输运通量分解方法分析水沙输运机制。结果表明,长江口北港口门附近海域涨、落潮期间底部悬沙浓度与近底部流速呈显著线性相关,存在显著的再悬浮作用;潮周期内的悬沙输运具不对称特征,涨潮悬沙浓度大于落潮悬沙浓度,悬浮泥沙有向陆输运的趋势。拉格朗日平流输运是影响悬沙输运的主要贡献项;潮泵效应(尤其是潮汐捕捉效应)以及河口垂向环流作用是两个次要影响因素,在影响程度上前者比后者略大。观测发现,长江口北港口门海域潮流除了具有涨落潮流速、历时等不对称现象外,还具有流速结构不对称的特征,进而导致涨、落潮底部湍流混合程度不对称与输沙不对称,这可能是造成悬沙向河口内输运形成最大浑浊带的重要因素。     

组织培养获得的海黍子幼孢子体的营养盐吸收和生长特性的研究

以组织培养间接获得的海黍子幼孢子体为实验对象,研究温度和氮、磷浓度对其营养盐吸收和生长的影响。结果显示,15~30℃范围内幼孢子体均可吸收NO-3-N、NH+4-N和PO3-4-P。25~30℃下NH+4-N的吸收显著高于10~15℃时,而NO-3-N和PO3-4-P的吸收速率在实验温度下差异不显著。NO-3-N、NH+4-N和PO3-4-P的最大吸收速率分别出现在15、25和25℃。当氮浓度3 000μg·L-1时,幼孢子体均可吸收NO-3-N和NH+4-N,且二者均呈现开放型吸收模式。当磷浓度30μg·L-1时,幼孢子体可吸收PO3-4-P,且呈现饱和型模式。温度对幼孢子体的生长影响显著。10~30℃范围内,富含氮磷组和去除氮磷组的特定生长率(SGR)均随着温度的升高先增大后减小,且最大SGR(分别为19.58%·d-1和14.58%·d-1)均在25℃时取得;叶绿素a、c的含量随着温度的升高先减小后增大。氮、磷浓度对幼孢子体的生长影响显著。富含氮磷组的SGR、叶绿素a含量和叶绿素c含量分别在15~25℃、15~30℃和20~30℃范围内显著高于去除氮磷组。     

Effect of Fe3+ on the growth and lipid content of Isochrysis galbana

Inducing lipid accumulation in microalgae cells without suppressing cell growth is vital to the economical production of biodiesel from microalgae. In two experiments, we demonstrate that the cell concentration and lipid content of marine microalgae Isochrysis galbana depend upon the iron concentration in the growth media. In Experiment I, adding chelated FeCl 3 to the medium at the late exponential growth phase prolonged this phase and increased the lipid content in I. galbana cells. The fi nal cell density and lipid content of I. galbana supplemented with chelated FeCl 3 was approximately 2 and 1.65 times higher than that of non-supplemented cultures, respectively. In Experiment II, I. galbana cells in the late exponential phase were collected and re-inoculated into new media containing Fe 3+ at various concentrations. The fi nal cell concentration and lipid content were maximized at the highest iron concentration(38% biomass by dry weight at 1.2×10-5 mol/L Fe 3+). In this study, intracellular neutral lipid storage was evaluated by fl uorescent spectrophotometry using fl uorochrome Nile red, and the measurement conditions were optimized.     

北半球温带气旋的模拟和预估研究Ⅱ:6个CMIP5耦合模式预估的未来RCP4.5情景下的变化

利用 CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）的6个气候耦合模式中等排放情景———RCP4?5（典型浓度路径4?5）下的模拟结果对北半球温带气旋数目、风暴路径和强度的未来变化进行了研究分析。结果表明：（1）相对于20世纪后半叶,RCP4?5情景下的2053—2100年,虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的区域性差异,但共同显示了至21世纪末北半球整体温带气旋生成将减少,较低纬度减少得更显著。（2）模式较一致地模拟出未来北半球温带气旋的中心气压有降低的趋势,涡度强度将线性减弱。大多数的模式模拟得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地偏移,但强度主要将减弱;过半的模式显示北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移,强度变化则随季节的不同而不同。（3）6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中高层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展,南半球的变化更为显著。斜压区的变化在某种程度上反映了风暴轴的类似变化,因此, 这也支持了北太平洋和北大西洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论。RCP4?5情景下北半球整体温带气旋活动将显著减少,但斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的偏移将使较低纬度未来温带气旋活动减少得更为显著。     

CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压的模拟和预估

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）26个模式的模拟结果,从空间分布和振幅变化、年际周期及年代际趋势等方面,初步评估了CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压（副高）的模拟能力。在此基础上,还对未来不同典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下副高的可能变化给出了定性的预估。CMIP5模式历史试验结果显示,大多数模式对500 hPa位势高度气候平均值的模拟有明显误差,这主要是由于模式对热带印度洋和西太平洋地区海表温度（SST）的模拟普遍较观测值低,从而导致模式对副高的模拟能力有限。但大多数模式对高度场和纬向风场变化的空间形态与振幅都有较强的模拟能力。因此,通过用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的气候平均值替代CMIP5模式气候平均值的简单方法,对CMIP5模拟结果进行了订正。经订正后的模式结果均有能力刻画副高指数的历史时间序列,且能够反映出20世纪70年代末期之后,副高面积增大、强度增强和显著西伸的变化趋势。此外,通过对副高指数的长期趋势、年际周期及标准差等的定量评估,注意到CNRM-CM5、FGOALS-g2、FIO-ESM、MIROC-ESM和MPI-ESM-P这5个模式对副高的模拟能力较强。未来气候预估试验中,副高面积和强度均增大,且显著西伸;其线性增长趋势在RCP8.5情景下最高,RCP4.5情景下次之,RCP2.6情景下最弱。有趣的是副高脊线指数在3种排放情景下都没有明显的长期变化趋势。这些结果为选取和利用CMIP5模式进行东亚地区气候变化的归因分析和未来预估提供了一定的科学依据。     

Effects of doubled carbon dioxide on rainfall responses to large-scale forcing: A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study

ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.     

Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature Under Future Emissions Scenarios Using a New Predictive Technique

Using numerical model simulations, global surface temperature is projected to increase by l~C to 4~C during the 21 st century, primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the present study, a predictive technique incorporating driving forces into an observation time series was used to project the global mean surface temperature under four representative sce- narios of future emissions over the 21st century.