Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

Experimental studies on the slowly varying drift motion of a berthed container ship model

The effects of free-surface waves on the floating structures are of great importance in the offshore industry. Among the six degrees of motions of a surface ship the absence of restoring forces in surge, sway and yaw led to critical situations for moored ships in the recent times. The order of forces in horizontal plane and their exciting frequencies are matters of interest. The resonance with the presence of moored chains led to many accidents in the recent past. The lines in dry conditions may not give good damping and in wet condition they may trigger the system to chaotic motions and jumps. Two different loading conditions of a container ship model are tested with waves in laboratory conditions in two different drafts. The mooring lines are chosen as per scale law and the energy under the response spectrum is determined from the plots. The results give new insights into the movement of a berthed ships subjected to waves. Response of the moored ship to different loading conditions in different water depths are discussed in this paper. The paper gives the order of energy due to first-order and slowly varying movement of a berthed container model in a towing tank.     

Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe

This paper presents a continuous version of the model of distribution dynamics to analyse the transition dynamics and implied long-run behaviour of the EU-27 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995–2003. It departs from previous research in two respects: first, by introducing kernel estimation and three-dimensional stacked conditional density plots as well as highest density regions plots for the visualisation of the transition function, based on Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996), and second, by combining Getis’ spatial filtering view with kernel estimation to explicitly account for the spatial dimension of the growth process. The results of the analysis indicate a very slow catching-up of the poorest regions with the richer ones, a process of shifting away of a small group of very rich regions, and highlight the importance of geography in understanding regional income distribution dynamics.

Dynamic data integration for structural modeling: model screening approach using a distance-based model parameterization

This paper proposes a novel history-matching method where reservoir structure is inverted from dynamic fluid flow response. The proposed workflow consists of searching for models that match production history from a large set of prior structural model realizations. This prior set represents the reservoir structural uncertainty because of interpretation uncertainty on seismic sections. To make such a search effective, we introduce a parameter space defined with a “similarity distance” for accommodating this large set of realizations. The inverse solutions are found using a stochastic search method. Realistic reservoir examples are presented to prove the applicability of the proposed method.     

可调滞回模型的磁流变阻尼器及其试验

本文在现在磁流变阴尼器性能研究的基础上，提出了可调滞回模型的磁流变阻尼器及其试验方法，并进行理论、试验及算例分析。首先，根据恒定电流下磁流变阻尼器的阻尼力滞力特性，利用磁流变材料特性的电流（即磁场）可控特点，建立了变电流下的阻尼力滞回模型；其次，在中通过电路板控制外加电流与装置变形间的函数关系，实现了变电流调节的阻尼力滞回模型；最后，将磁流变阻尼器与橡胶隔震装置结合，形成智能磁流变隔夺装置，并对一个单自由度隔震结构进行了数值仿真分析。     

Coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport and the worth of concentration data

This paper presents the extension of the self-calibrating method to the coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport. The method generates equally likely solutions to the inverse problem that display the variability as observed in the field and are not affected by a linearisation of the state equations. Conditioning to the state variables is measured by an objective function including, among others, the mismatch between the simulated and measured concentrations. Conditioning is achieved by minimising the objective function by gradient-based methods. The gradient contains the partial derivatives of the objective function with respect to: log conductivities, log storativities, prescribed heads at boundaries, retardation coefficients and mass sources. The derivatives of the objective function with respect to log conductivity are the most cumbersome and need the most CPU-time to be evaluated. For this reason, to compute this derivative only advective transport is considered. The gradient is calculated by the adjoint-state method. The method is demonstrated in a controlled, synthetic study, in which the worth of concentration data is analysed. It is shown that concentration data are essential to improve transport predictions and also help to improve aquifer characterisation and flow predictions, especially in the upstream part of the aquifer, even in the case that a considerable amount of other experimental data like conductivities and heads are available. Besides, conditioning to concentration data reduces the ensemble variances of estimated transmissivity, hydraulic head and concentration.     

建筑物沉降规律的综合时序分析

建筑物的沉降监测数据序列具有趋势变化和随机变化的特点，本文针对两种变化项的特点分别建立相应的数学模型，再将其组合起来建立综合数学模型，从总体上把握沉降数据序列的变化规律。实例计算分析表明，此方法具有较高的拟合精度和预测能力，具有一定的应用参考价值。     

论胶莱盆地的改造与原型盆地恢复

改造盆地的研究具有重要的石油勘探意义。通过系统分析对比原型盆地与改造型盆地认为胶莱盆地具有改造型盆地的特征。根据胶莱原型盆地的改造过程及其特点的探讨、国内改造型盆地研究实例分析及胶莱盆地改造型盆地研究的欠缺，对胶莱盆地改造型盆地进行了充分论证。最后，指出胶莱盆地的改造与原型盆地恢复的关键在于判断胶莱原型盆地构造性质、原型盆地恢复采用的理念及多种研究方法相结合。     

Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).