Prediction of tension crack location and riverbank erosion hazards along destabilized channels

Riverbank erosion, associated sedimentation and land loss hazards are a land management problem of global significance and many attempts to predict the onset of riverbank instability have been made. Recently, Osman and Thorne (1988) have presented a Culmann-type analysis of the stability of steep, cohesive riverbanks; this has the potential to be a considerable improvement over previous bank stability theories, which do not account for bank geometry changes due to toe scour and lateral erosion. However, in this paper it is shown that the existing Osman-Thorne model does not properly incorporate the influence of tension cracking on bank stability since the location of the tension crack on the floodplain is indirectly determined via calculation or arbitrary specification of the tension crack depth. Furthermore, accurate determination of tension crack location is essential to the calculation of the geometry of riverbank failure blocks and hence prediction of land loss and bank sediment yield associated with riverbank instability and channel widening. In this paper, a rational, physically based method to predict the location of tension cracks on the floodplain behind the eroding bank face is presented and tested. A case study is used to illustrate the computational procedure required to apply the model. Improved estimates of failure block geometry using the new method may potentially be applied to improve predictions of bank retreat and floodplain land loss along river channels destabilized as a result of environmental change.     

Within-storm variations in runoff and sediment export from a rapidly eroding coal-refuse deposit

Measurements of rainfall, runoff and sediment export from a barren deposit of coal mine refuse in south-western Indiana were collected during three storms in the summer and autumn of 1990. Interfluve sheetwash, sediment mass flux, sediment concentration and, to a lesser extent, trunk gully discharge all responded quickly to changes in rainfall intensity. Grain-size distributions varied considerably during storms, containing exclusively fine-grained sediment at low sediment discharges but very large quantities of coarse (> 2mm) sediment at peak sediment discharges. Although data from a fairly long, multipulsed storm indicate that sediment production is limited by supply, the imbricated layer of flat chips that exists at the surface of the deposit is apparently mobilized during most high-intensity pulses of rainfall, thereby producing large volumes of coarse sediment during summer thunderstorms.     

广东新会市人口,耕地,粮食问题及灰色模型预测

在我国改革开放政策实行较早的广东珠江三角洲地区，我们对地处西南部的新会市进行了为期两年的全面、典型抽样调查。发现全市的耕地面积和播种面积呈下降趋势，单产虽有较大幅度的增长但粮食总产量的增长缓慢，速度低于全市总人口的自然增长率，因此人均粮食产量呈下降趋势。根据建立的灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测，新会市２０１０年人均耕地面积只有０．０２５ｈｍ＾２，在“人均４分保命田”之下。因此，本文对该地区作出的粮食及     

Agricultural policy reforms and sustainable land management: a New Zealand case study

This paper examines the link between poverty and land management within the context of New Zealand's almost total removal of subsidies to agriculture since 1984. The impact of these policy changes is explored through the findings from a detailed study of sixteen farms in the North Island hill country. Stress is identified as a primary link between social damage and environmental degradation. This link reinforces the impact of other linkages expressed in reduced production, lower stocking rates, and reduced capital inputs. Deregulation is claimed to be good. This paper shows that in certain circumstances this is not so.     

内蒙古呼盟地区地震活动的基本特征

通过对内蒙古呼盟地区地震活动的研究,认为呼盟地区震中分布较稳定;存在20年左右地震活动周期;震源机制两节面分布相对比较稳定,P、T轴近水平向;地震破裂是以水平滑动为主。将来呼盟地区的地震活动主体地区为博克图、满洲里一带,震级为5级左右。     

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.     

地壳岩石的渗透性状及孔隙水对岩石力学性质的影响

本文概述地壳岩石渗透性状和孔隙水对岩石力学性质影响的研究现状及已取得的成果;指出孔隙压的形成及分布,孔隙度、渗透率与孔隙压的关系。孔隙压的有效应力,孔隙压对岩石形变。破裂机制的影响以及从断裂力学观点考察孔隙压的作用等系今后该领域研究的主要课题和发展方向。