The “unrevealed casualties” of the Irish mortgage crisis: Analysing the broader impacts of mortgage market financialisation

Since 2008, extensive research has examined the impacts of mortgage market financialisation, particularly the socio-spatial patterns of mortgage defaults and foreclosures. However, these standard statistical indicators of mortgage difficulty only capture the ‘overt casualties’ of the crisis, overlooking the mass of households who meet their mortgage commitments, but do so at considerable cost to quality of life. The impacts of the crisis on these ‘unrevealed casualties’ has received insufficient attention within the literature. As such, this article develops a framework to assess mortgage stress levels using standard and atypical indicators of mortgage payment difficulty. This framework differentiates between the ‘overt’ and ‘unrevealed’ casualties and is applied through a case study of suburban Dublin mortgagors to examine the characteristics of these groups, determine the key factors driving their mortgage stress and assess how their attitudes towards homeownership are being reshaped. The results suggest the impact of the mortgage crisis is much larger than previously considered, affecting a more diverse range of suburban households, many of whom may be one financial or non-financial trigger event away from developing a more serious payments problem. Banks’ reckless lending practices are among the strongest predictors of mortgage stress, demonstrating how the failure to adequately regulate banking practices has had detrimental financial impacts for households at the suburban scale. Attitudes toward homeownership and its investment function are increasingly negative, demonstrating how the primary rationale for homeownership expansion (i.e. its potential for wealth creation) is being revaluated by mortgaged households in the wake of the crash.     

Monitoring of water stress in wheat using multispectral indices derived from Landsat-TM

Detection of crop water stress is crucial for efficient irrigation water management. Potential of Satellite data to provide spatial and temporal dynamics of crop growth conditions makes it possible to monitor crop water stress at regional level. This study was conducted in parts of western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. Multi-temporal Landsat data were used for detecting wheat crop water stress using vegetation indices (VIs), viz. vegetation water stress index (VWSI) and land surface wetness index water stress factor (Ws_LSWI). The estimated water stress from satellite data-based VIs was validated by water stress factor (Ws) derived from flux-tower data. The study observed Ws_LSWI to be better index for water stress detection. The results indicated that Ws_LSWI was superior over other index showing RMSE = 0.12, R² = 0.65, whereas VWSI showed overestimated values with mean RD 4%.     

陕北风沙区含砾石工程堆积体坡面产流产沙试验

采用室内人工模拟降雨方法,研究了陕北风沙区含砾石工程堆积体边坡的产流产沙过程。结果表明:①砾石存在改变了坡面入渗速率,径流系数受入渗速率的影响,随砾石含量的增加先线性递减后线性递增,并在10%砾石含量处存在阈值;径流系数随降雨强度的增加线性递增。②含砾石堆积体坡面流速较纯土堆积体降低,且随雨强增大,砾石延缓径流流动的作用越显著;雨强对径流流速的影响随砾石含量增加持续减弱。③土壤剥蚀率在产流24~33 min后显著增加,砾石主要对显著增加后的平均剥蚀率产生影响。④雨强1.0 mm/min时,砾石存在促进降雨侵蚀,产沙量增大;雨强大于1.0 mm/min时,砾石具有显著的减沙效应。     

浙江南部丽水盆地地层时代及构造演化

位于浙江南部的丽水盆地是华南东部典型的白垩纪火山岩盆地。对盆地中5个凝灰岩夹层样品进行了锆石LA-MC-ICPMS U-Pb同位素年代学分析,结果给出了(114±1)Ma,(114±2)Ma,(118±1)Ma,(122±1)Ma和(112±1)Ma的主体谐和年龄。结合区域沉积-构造接触关系,本文将盆地内火山-沉积序列分为上、下2个组合:下火山-沉积组合包括馆头组和朝川组,其形成时代在124~112 Ma;上火山-沉积组合以方岩组为代表,其时代在104~91 Ma。这两套岩石组合的形成记录了盆地两期伸展断陷事件。结合区域构造变形和古构造应力场反演结果,本文认为丽水盆地早白垩世经历了两个伸展-挤压旋回的构造演化过程,每一旋回的古构造应力场均以NW-SE伸展和NWSE挤压应力场的交替演化为特征。NW-SE伸展事件控制了盆地的初始张开、断陷和沉积物充填作用,其产生的动力背景与古太平洋板块俯冲过程中因俯冲板片后撤(roll-back)诱发的弧后扩张作用有关。NW-SE挤压事件导致盆地的构造反转,下白垩统普遍褶皱,并形成区域角度不整合面,其形成与俯冲板片的深部几何学变化或大陆碰撞的远程效应有关。丽水盆地伸展-挤压事件的幕式交替反映了弧后扩张过程中复杂的深部动力学背景。     

从同震和震后形变分析1668年M8.5级郯城地震对周边地震活动性的影响

以山东郯城1668年大地震为例,以前人地表地质调查结果为约束,利用弹性位错理论初步获取了该地震的同震破裂模型;在此基础上,基于粘弹性分层模型分析了该地震的同震和震后形变,同时以主震断层为接收断层计算了库仑应力分布,进一步讨论了地幔不同粘滞性系数对地表形变和库仑应力变化的影响。计算结果显示,该地震是一个右旋走滑为主兼有一定逆冲性质的地震,其同震位移巨大,能量释放较彻底;同震破裂造成震中郯城县西北、东北和南部部分断层库仑应力增加,而震后形变使得这些断层库仑应力进一步增加,在单县、宿迁和日照等地,地震后350 a库仑应力变化量达到+1bar-+1MPa量级;地幔粘滞性系数不同,形变量和库仑应力变化达到稳定的时间不同,但最终趋于稳定的数值基本一致。     

SoFISHticated policy – social perspectives on the fish conflict in the Northeast Atlantic

Ecosystem changes currently question the traditional allocation of fishing rights and quotas in the fishery of Northeast Atlantic mackerel and Norwegian spring-spawning herring in the Northeast Atlantic. Variability in the distribution of these highly migratory species escalated in a political conflict between member states of the European Union, Iceland, the Faroe Islands and Norway, which is a driving force for unsustainable fishery. The aim of this paper is to investigate this conflict by outlining the social understandings of diverse stakeholders by using the Q methodology. The method reduced the complexity of numerous opinions, detected four distinct perspectives and simultaneously categorised the participating stakeholders. Although the perspectives differ in various elements, the protection of economic interests seems to dominate over the quest for sustainability. The call of all stakeholders in this study to clarify the fishing rights in the Northeast Atlantic reveals a clear deficiency of the current international fishery management in handling abrupt ecological changes and the necessity to acknowledge this as a complex adaptive system.     

放养密度对大杂交鲟生长性能的影响及生理应答机制

为探讨放养密度对鱼类生长及生理应答机制的影响规律和作用,作者以大规格大杂交鲟(达氏鳇(Huso dauricus)♀×施氏鲟(Acipenser schrenckii)♂)为实验材料,研究了平均初始体质量约为243 g/尾,放养密度分别为6(SD1组)、9(SD2组)、12(SD3组)、15 kg/m3(SD4组)条件下,不同放养密度处理70 d后的实验鱼生长性能变化及生理应答机制。结果显示,放养密度对大杂交鲟肥满度影响不显著,SD2组鱼类具有最大的特定生长率和生长效率,随着放养密度增加,日增质量显著降低(P0.05),特定生长率和生长效率下降。测定了血液甲状腺素(T4)、三碘甲腺原氨酸(T3)和皮质醇水平变化,发现放养密度能引起大杂交鲟3个血液生理指标发生显著改变;随着养殖时间推移,T3和皮质醇浓度显著升高,T4浓度显著下降(P0.05)。这些结果说明神经内分泌活动的变化引起大杂交鲟血液生理指标变化,进而影响实验鱼生长性能。因此,在该养殖条件下推荐的养殖密度为9 kg/m3。     

Study of Influence of Regional Geodynamic Background on Strata Behaviors in China's Tongxin Mine

Strata behaviors are mainly affected by regional geodynamic background. The influence of rock mass stress and energy distribution on strata behaviors in the Tongxin mine is studied in terms of regional tectonic movement, seismic activity and tectonic stress field. The results show that the extrusion lifting movement of Kouquan fault adjacent to the Tongxin mine results in the stress concentration in the rock of the Carboniferous coal bed and accumulation of a large amount of elastic energy and forms structural background of Tongxin mine. Due to various seismic activities in the mine area, the strain energy is known to reach much higher levels, up to 0.5×10⁸ J^1/2. Since the stratigraphic structure is sensitive to the mining operation, the strain energy could cause strong strata behaviors. A special geological structure model of the Tongxin mine is established based on the geodynamic division method. The distribution of regional structure stress field is determined by the rock mass stress analysis system. Based on this model, Tongxin mine is divided into five areas with high stress, eight areas with low stress and eight areas with gradient stress. The strong strata behaviors mostly occur in high stress areas. These results could provide guidance to predict the strength of regional or mine pressure and control strata behavior in different areas.     

库车坳陷新生代构造应力场恢复

库车坳陷的构造变形及演化与南天山造山带的发育密切相关。库车坳陷新近纪以来的喜马拉雅晚期构造运动最为强烈,形成了天山山前大型冲断带,并造就了现今的构造格局。通过对库车坳陷北部构造样式的识别及各种应力场指示标志的测量、统计和构造解析,对野外获得的应力场指示标志划分了期次,认为喜马拉雅晚期应力场标志为近南北向挤压。结合库车坳陷区域构造要素,如地质体几何形态、边界条件、岩石力学参数等,运用弹性力学有限元数值模拟的方法获得了喜马拉雅晚期库车坳陷的区域应力场。模拟结果表明,库车坳陷喜马拉雅晚期最大主压应力方向为近南北向,与古应力场标志拟合较高,可以为库车坳陷裂缝预测和评价提供依据,对勘探开发有应用价值。     

浮托安装进船过程中护舷碰撞力实测研究

浮托安装法广泛应用于大型组块海上安装。导管架平台上部组块浮托安装进船过程中,风、浪、流引起的浮托驳船横向运动造成浮托驳船与导管架桩腿的碰撞,碰撞力可能会对导管架结构造成损伤。陆丰7-2上部组块浮托安装中,为了监测碰撞力大小,设计了碰撞力海上监测系统。通过在导管架外侧四个桩腿上安装光纤光栅应变传感器对碰撞过程中导管架桩腿进行应力监测,进而计算碰撞力。对碰撞过程,载荷作用位置、方向进行简化,并对载荷大小及垂向作用位置对计算的影响进行了研究。结构分析模型简化后,测点von-Mises应力与碰撞力大小成正比,对导管架整体结构建模计算并取局部结构计算比例系数,结合应力实测数据计算出进船过程中驳船对导管架桩腿碰撞力。