影响我国水稻产量的主要气象因子的研究

通过收集前人所作的全国各地区水稻产量气象预报模型,将所得到的资料按双季早稻、双季晚稻、单季稻进行分析,并提取预报因子。通过定量化处理,使用系统聚类分析方法,以预报方程中的影响因子为指标,讨论了各水稻分区（双季早稻分为４个区,双季晚稻分为２个区,单季稻分为９个区）水稻产量的主、次要影响因子和影响时期,为大范围水稻产量预报提供了科学依据。     

MODIS植被指数的美国玉米单产遥感估测

针对中国开展的国外农作物产量遥感估测大多依靠中低分辨率耕地信息、省级(州级)或国家级作物产量统计数据的现状,本文以美国玉米为例,探讨利用多年中高分辨率作物分布信息、时序遥感植被指数和县级作物产量统计数据开展国外重点地区作物单产遥感估测技术研究,以期进一步提高中国对国外农作物产量监测精度和精细化水平。首先,利用美国农业部国家农业统计局(NASS/USDA)生产的作物分布数据(CDL)获得多个年份玉米空间分布图,并对相应年份250 m分辨率16天合成的MODIS-NDVI时序数据进行掩膜处理,统计获得每年各县域内玉米主要生育期NDVI均值;其次,以各州为估产区,以多年县级玉米统计单产和县域内玉米主要生育期NDVI均值为基础,建立各州玉米主要生育期NDVI与玉米单产间关系模型;然后,通过主要生育期玉米单产和玉米植被指数间拟合程度,筛选确定各州玉米最佳估产期和最佳估产模型。最终,利用最佳估产模型实现美国各州玉米单产估测和全国玉米单产推算。其中,建模数据覆盖时间为2007年—2010年,验证数据为2011年。结果表明,应用最佳估产模型的2011年美国各州玉米单产估测相对误差在-4.16%—4.92%,均方根误差在148.75—820.93 kg/ha,各州估测结果计算获得全国玉米单产的相对误差仅为2.12%,均方根误差为285.57 kg/ha。可见,本研究的作物单产遥感估测技术方法具有一定可行性,可准确估测全球重点地区作物单产信息。     

棉花生育期关键气象因子及单产丰歉评估指标

根据河南省棉花播种面积权重,选出安阳、新乡、商丘、周口和南阳5个代表站,利用棉花产量与棉花生育期间5个代表站旬平均光照、温度、降水的相关系数,确定7个关键气象因子,建立了其与产量的回归方程,提出了考虑7个关键气象因子综合影响的棉花单产丰歉评估指标。应用该评估指标对1980~2004年棉花单产的丰歉进行检验,与实况一致的达84%,产量与评估指标相关系数达0.71以上,相关极显著。     

典型富营养化城市河流——浙江温瑞塘河的浮游植物群落类型与季节变化

为评估温瑞塘河水环境状况及水华风险,于2015年每月15日7:00-18:00对其下游滞流河段进行高频监测分析,考察了水体叶绿素a浓度、浮游植物群落类型和光合活性等的季节变化及日变化情况,并分析了其与温度、营养盐等环境因子的关系.结果表明:温瑞塘河表层水体中的叶绿素a浓度表现为春季(3-5月)夏季(6-8月)秋季(9-11月)冬季(12-2月),分别为39.98、37.62、21.59和10.74μg/L;4个季节的平均水温则是夏季秋季春季冬季,分别为30.91、25.34、20.72和13.80℃.全年总氮浓度为5.33±0.81~9.40±1.25 mg/L,总磷浓度为0.32±0.18~0.95±0.25mg/L,营养程度属于超富营养.温瑞塘河的浮游植物群落类型为硅藻-绿藻型,全年以绿藻和硅藻种群为主,蓝藻种群只在春末夏初出现,并且所占比例很小.绿藻种群在夏季占绝对优势,而硅藻种群在冬季占优势.绿藻种群的相对丰度与水温呈正相关,而硅藻种群的相对丰度与水温呈负相关.水体的叶绿素a浓度与水温呈正相关,而与总氮、总磷浓度没有相关性.叶绿素a在不同季节呈现出不同的日变化模式,而浮游植物的有效光合量子产率在四季均呈现类似的日变化模式:都是先降后升,与晴天时的日照强度变化趋势相反.绿藻的有效光合量子产率高于硅藻,且除春季外皆存在显著差异.以上结果表明温瑞塘河具备发生各类水华的营养条件,但是由于蓝藻在全年所占的比例都很低,因此发生蓝藻水华的可能性很小;同时由于日照变化会对表层水体中叶绿素a浓度及浮游植物生理活动产生影响,因此在对小型湖泊或者水流滞缓的河道进行浮游植物群落结构调查时还应考虑时间和天气因素.     

基于残差周期修正的辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测

基于1971—2005年辽宁省主要粮食作物水稻和玉米的全区平均单产资料,根据产量数据的多周期和波动性特点,采用周期修正残差值方法,构建了辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测模型,采用正弦曲线拟合残差序列,对模型的残差进行周期修正,预测精度提高。结果表明：预测＂十二五＂期间,辽宁省水稻在2013年以后出现小幅度下降,而单产绝对值仍处于一个相对较高的水平。玉米单产至2014年呈持续增产趋势,2015年略有下降,单产波动幅度较小。以2006—2009年实际产量数据对模型进行检验,效果较好。水稻单产预测模型精度为一级,玉米单产预测模型精度为二级。该模型对于大灾年份的粮食产量预测精度较差,但可反映其趋势。     

青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系

利用DPS统计中的相关、回归等方法分析近10年青海高原牧区5站点牧草产量变化与气象因子的关系,并建立了牧草产量的气象条件多元回归拟合模型。结果表明：近10年来牧草产量的年最高值河南、甘德总体呈下降趋势,曲麻莱、海北、兴海总体呈上升趋势;5站点牧草产量5月变幅最大为兴海,变幅最小的为海北,6—8月变幅最大的是曲麻莱,变幅最小的是海北;5站点8月牧草产量形成期总体上日照充足,降水除河南阶段性较充沛外,其余受限制,温度除河南在牧草生长季内当光温出现匹配不当时呈负相关外,其余均受限制;气象因子与5站点年最高牧草产量的拟合模式拟合效果较好,均可通过0.01检验。     

Runoff and sediment yield from land under various uses in a Mediterranean mountain area: long‐term results from an experimental station

In this study we analyzed runoff and sediment yield from land under various traditional and current land uses in Mediterranean mountain areas, using long‐term data from an experimental station in the Aísa Valley, Central Spanish Pyrenees. Monitoring at this station has provided 20 years of data that can help explain the hydrological and geomorphological changes that have been observed at larger spatial scales, and also the changes that have occurred to some of the most characteristic landscapes of the Mediterranean middle mountains. In spite of the problems associated with the use of small experimental plots, the results obtained are consistent with other studies in the Mediterranean region, and confirm the strong influence of land use changes on runoff generation and sediment yield. The results indicate that: (i) cereal cultivation on steep slopes (both alternating cereal cultivation and fallow on sloping fields and shifting agriculture on the steepest slopes) represents a major problem for soil conservation. This explains the occurrence throughout the Mediterranean mountains of many degraded hillslopes, which show evidence of sheet wash erosion, rilling, gullying and shallow landsliding; (ii) farmland abandonment has led to a marked reduction in runoff and sediment yield as a consequence of rapid plant recolonization, particularly by dense shrubs; (iii) the natural transformation of abandoned fields into grazing meadows has reduced runoff and sediment yield. Land use trends in the Mediterranean mountains are mainly characterized by generalized farmland abandonment and a decrease in livestock pressure. From a hydrological and geomorphological point of view the main consequences have been a reduction in overland flow from the hillslopes, and a reduction in sediment sources, with differences up to one order of magnitude in sediment yield from dense shrub cover and grazing meadow areas compared with areas under shifting agriculture. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2008年汶川地震后的三次强余震地表峰值加速度衰减场研究

利用甘肃省强震动台站获取的2008年汶川地震后的三次强余震记录资料,分别研究了在甘肃南部地区的地表自由场加速度衰减场,认为地震引起的地表峰值加速度(PGA)随震中距的衰减基本都遵从幂指数规律,衰减的形式基本相同,但是三次强余震的衰减指数之间也存在着一定的差异.因此要得到陇南地区的中强地震动衰减的普遍规律,尚需做进一步的研究.     

Variation in the sediment deposition behind check‐dams under different soil erosion conditions on the Loess Plateau,China

To maintain a reasonable sediment regulation system in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, it is critical to determine the variation in sediment deposition behind check‐dams for different soil erosion conditions. Sediment samples were collected by using a drilling machine in the Fangta watershed of the loess hilly–gully region and the Manhonggou watershed of the weathered sandstone hilly–gully (pisha) region. On the basis of the check‐dam capacity curves, the soil bulk densities and the couplet thickness in these two small watersheds, the sediment yields were deduced at the watershed scale. The annual average sediment deposition rate in the Manhonggou watershed (702.0 mm/(km²·a)) from 1976 to 2009 was much higher than that in the Fangta watershed (171.6 mm/(km²·a)) from 1975 to 2013. The soil particle size distributions in these two small watersheds were generally centred on the silt and sand fractions, which were 42.4% and 50.7% in the Fangta watershed and 60.6% and 32.9% in the Manhonggou watershed, respectively. The annual sediment deposition yield exhibited a decreasing trend; the transition years were 1991 in the Fangta watershed and 1996 in the Manhonggou watershed (P < 0.05). In contrast, the annual average sediment deposition yield was much higher in the Manhonggou watershed (14011.1 t/(km²·a)) than in the Fangta watershed (3149.6 t/(km²·a)). In addition, the rainfalls that induced sediment deposition at the check‐dams were greater than 30 mm in the Fangta watershed and 20 mm in the Manhonggou watershed. The rainfall was not the main reason for the difference in the sediment yield between the two small watersheds. The conversion of farmland to forestland or grassland was the main reason for the decrease in the soil erosion in the Fangta watershed, while the weathered sandstone and bare land were the main factors driving the high sediment yield in the Manhonggou watershed. Knowledge of the sediment deposition process of check‐dams and the variation in the catchment sediment yield under different soil erosion conditions can serve as a basis for the implementation of improved soil erosion and sediment control strategies, particularly in semi‐arid hilly–gully regions. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震作用下含软弱夹层顺层岩质边坡表面放大效应研究

为了研究地震作用下含软弱夹层顺层岩质边坡表面的放大效应,借用FLAC3D软件,建立了含软弱夹层顺层岩质边坡动力分析数值模型;在合理考虑地震动输入、边界条件、网格划分与模型参数的基础上,分析了地震动峰值、频率、持时以及初动方向等因素影响下的边坡表面放大效应。研究结果表明：①地震动峰值、频率和初动方向对边坡表面放大效应的影响较显著,而地震动持时对边坡表面放大效应的影响微小;②随着地震动峰值的增加,放大效应由软弱夹层之上的坡面及坡顶面向坡肩点逐渐增大,坡肩点的放大效应最大;③当输入地震动频率小于边坡的自振频率时,边坡表面加速度放大倍数较小,且频率越小,放大倍数越小,当输入地震动频率大于边坡的自振频率时,边坡表面加速度放大倍数较大,且频率越大,放大倍数亦越大。