地洼学说的理论结构和发展纲领

地洼学说(活化区理论)自1956年诞生以来,经受过35年的实践检验,已发展成为包括五个组成部分和两个衍生学科的理论体系。它的理论结构是以第一个组成部分,即大陆地壳中发生于地台阶段之后,与地槽区不同特征的一种新型活动区—活化区即地洼区概念为内核,保护层为其余的组成部分和衍生学科,即地壳动定转化递进说、递进(地洼)成矿理论、壳体概念和地幔蠕动热能聚散交替假说,以及构造地球化学和成矿构造学。 地洼学说是属于作者建立的“历史—因果论大地构造学”范畴,它的发展纲领应是运用“历史—动力综合分析法”的研究方法,贯彻理论实践并重和切合生产需要的学术路线,采用充实和加固内核以及调整某些保护层的方式,按照自我完善与学百家之长相结合的原则,研究领域包括学说本身的进一步发展和运用它以解决实际问题。 内核的充实和加固包括两个方面;(1)理论方面的研究,例如地洼区的鉴别依据、类型划分、形成时代、分布地区、地壳运动等方面的问题。(2)实用方面的研究,例如运用区域地质、成矿规律及找矿预测、地热、水文地质、地貌、新构造等方面的问题。     

Efficiency of kriging estimation for square, triangular, and hexagonal grids

Although several researchers have pointed out some advantages and disadvantages of various soil sampling designs in the presence of spatial autocorrelation, a more detailed study is presented herein which examines the geometrical relationship of three sampling designs, namely the square, the equilateral triangle, and the regular hexagon. Both advantages and disadvantages exist in the use of these designs with respect to estimation of the semivariogram and their effect on the mean square error or variance of error. This research could be used to design optimal sampling strategies; it is based on the theory of regionalized variables, in which the intrinsic hypothesis is satisfied. Among alternative designs, an equilateral triangle design gives the most reliable estimate of the semivariogram. It also gives the minimum maximum mean square error of point estimation of the concentration over the other two designs for the same number of measurements when the nugget effect is small relative to the variance. If the nugget effect is large (.90 ² or more), and the linear sampling density is >0.85r where r is the range, the hexagonal design is best. This study computes and compares the maximum mean square error for each of these designs.     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

热带太平洋海气系统内部联系的年代际变化

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和全球海温海冰GISST2.3b资料以及英国CRU提供的南方涛动指数，分析了热带太平洋区域海气系统内部联系的年代际变化特征。结果表明：热带太平洋地区海气年际变化间的相关关系具有显著的年代际变迁；最近50a中，西太平洋地区海温变化与南方涛动的联系存在更为明显的年代际变化，且在IWP与ISO相关关系微弱时，在西太平洋赤道北侧对流层低层，西太平洋海温较暖（冷）时存在反气旋（气旋）环流。这样的高海温-反气旋系统与ENSO时期典型的低海温-反气旋的系统相反，其动力学作用将不利于维持ENSO与西太平洋海温变化间的密切联系。     

地壳均衡假说与湘西北地壳均衡失调探讨

由湖南省1:100万10′×15′平均均衡重力异常图知,湘西北地区呈重力高;除此以外的广大地区,当消除花岗岩对应的局部重力低外,均衡异常基本呈零值特征。笔者认为这是湖南全省的地壳均衡失调区,并从5个方面对该问题进行了分析。     

秦岭造山带基础地质研究新进展

“八五”－“九五”期间秦岭的多项研究中，主要取得以下新认识：①创立了抽拉－逆冲岩片构造新理论，丰富和发展了岩石圈板块或壳块运动方式的多样性；②发现了东西向的秦岭造山带从显生宙以来有南北向的隆升带和沉积盆地，特别是太白、宝鸡－佛坪－汉南隆升带的发现，将从根本上改变秦岭乃至中国中东部构造格架的认识；③南北向沉积盆地转变为东西向造山带的Ⅱ型造山带，深部构造岩片抽拉－逆冲推覆在中（新）生代陆相沉积盆地之上所形成的Ⅲ型造山带，为地壳表层增添了两种新型的造山带；④提出秦岭造山带中存在3类沉积盆地，3种盆－山转换，3个发展阶段及3种型式（Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ）的造山带；⑤重新厘定商丹带、勉略带和二郎坪带的构造属性、形成时代，首次提出秦岭受3种体制，4个发展阶段的新观点，由抽拉构造形成的陆内造山带是秦岭最重要的划时代发展阶段；⑥提出立交桥式结构观点；⑦发现了一批前震旦系变质地层结晶岩系，重新厘定了一些地层的时代，特别是西秦岭、西成铅锌矿田中元古代地层的发现和超大型厂坝矿床产于其中，有重大的理论和实际意义；⑧提出准浊流态流体的新概念；⑨提出中国和秦岭大地构造发展演化的新全球动力学理论。     

形变反演模型的非线性平差

阐述了反演问题参数估计的质量要求，将反演理论中的分辨率和精度与平差中的良好统计性质作了对比分析，为使反演参数得到良好估计，提出平差处理对策。针对反演问题经常是非线性模型，提出了非线性平差的几种方法，最后给出参数筛选的原则和相应的统计检验方法。     

《气象报文自动处理分发系统》开发与应用

利用Visual Basic 6.0编程和mtimer定时进程控制技术，建立了《气象报文自动处理分发系统》。县（区）局测报员应用该系统的县局部分，能够实现报文编辑、转换、发送；市台预报员应用该系统的市局部分，可以实现报文收集、整理、打包传输。系统在一年多的实际业务应用中，简化了工作程序，实用性强，初步实现了气象信息传输的自动化。     

Image resolution and evaluation of genetic hypotheses for planetary landscapes

The spatial resolution of image data tends to constrain the horizontal length scale of genetic hypotheses that are addressable by those data. No ‘simple’ formula exists when image resolution is sufficient to test a given geomorphic process, which is dependent on what characteristics are diagnostic of the particular process. Genetic hypotheses should be formulated along the lines of the “multiple working hypotheses” concept as described in a classic paper by Chamberlin [J. Geol. 5 (1897) 837]. An essential element of a viable working hypothesis is a clear indication of the characteristics predicted by, or a consequence of, the hypothesis. An untestable hypothesis is not an effective working hypothesis. The history of the study of lunar sinuous rilles is outlined as an illustration of the influence of image resolution and the formulation of genetic hypotheses on the subsequent advancement of understanding of the problem. Sinuous rilles on Venus and Mars, and controversial sinuous ridges on Mars are also reviewed. In the lunar case, the three-order-of-magnitude improvement in spatial resolution provided by Lunar Orbiter photographs over Earth-based telescopic photographs did not result in definitive examination and elimination of published hypotheses for the formation of sinuous rilles. Topographic data obtained from cartographically controlled Apollo orbital photographs, along with important observations and samples obtained by the astronauts on the lunar surface, did test and exclude several hypotheses. The formulation of a genetic hypothesis, including testable consequences of that hypothesis, is a greater determinant of its ultimate utility to the scientific community than is the image resolution available at any given time.     

Earth’s density flattening and hypothesis of latitudinal normal density

In this paper, the definition of latitudinal density and density flattening of the level ellipsoid is given, and integral formulas of latitudinal density for pole gravity and equator gravity are derived. According to the pole gravity condition and equator gravity condition for the level ellipsoid, latitudinal density distribution function of the level ellipsoid is obtained. It is proved mathematically that latitudinal density of the earth’s equator is larger than that of the pole, the earth’s density flattening calculated preliminarily is 1/322, and hypothesis of the earth’s latitudinal normal density is further proposed, so that theoretical preparation for studying the forming cause of the earth gravity in problems such as continent drift, mantle convection, and submarine extension is made well.