基于MODE对模式预报强风风场的检验分析

基于专业气象服务领域十分关注的模式强风预报性能的客观检验和致灾性强风预警服务效果的合理性判别问题,利用一次强风过程对电网专业气象预警服务效果的检验示范,探讨基于目标(面向对象)的诊断检验方法(Method for ObjectBased Diagnostic Evaluation,MODE)对强风事件检验的适用性。通过对强风空间检验的各个关键参数的选择确定、匹配分析,发现:(1)MODE检验的卷积半径、诊断量权重和匹配阈值等参数的选择,将影响检验目标的适度聚焦和误差表达的客观性,因此需要综合考虑预报和实况场的水平分辨率、用户对该类强天气预报误差的空间和时间冗余度等;(2)MODE检验可较好地量化给出模式预报的整体效果,包括:强风落区的范围大小和位置偏差、强风过程的时间相位差等,从而可量化判别出模式在各个时刻的空报和漏报区域以及对强风过程移动速度和生命周期长度的预报性能。     

三杯风速传感器非水平风场测量性能

为解决三杯风速传感器在计量检定条件下与观测场景中环境差异所导致的测量数据误差,致力于研究空气流速计量标准在量值传递过程中的真实性、准确性和一致性,为新一代三杯风速传感器作为计量器具的新产品型式评价提供思路和参考指标,依据杯式测风仪测量方法与自动气象站风速风向传感器检定规程,并在实验中加入了主体由角度编码器构成的自动化转盘系统,设计了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场内测量性能水平实验。通过调整三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的倾斜角度,模拟其在自然界非水平风场中的测量状态,同步采集风洞的标准指示风速、三杯风速传感器的实测风速以及其相应的倾斜角度,计算示值误差,利用方差分析、趋势分析、相关性分析和线性回归分析等统计方法,对不同倾斜角度下三杯风速传感器示值误差进行研究,得出了三杯风速传感器在风洞试验段内的示值误差与实测风速和倾斜角度之间的相关关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场下的测量性能指标。研究了三杯风速传感器在非水平风场中实测风速与标准风速和倾斜角度的回归关系,提出了三杯风速传感器在计量环境下非水平风场中数据的量值传递修正算法。     

贵州省不同强度区域性凝冻过程环流形势对比分析

利用贵州省84个气象站逐日观测资料以及再分析资料,对4种不同强度区域性凝冻过程进行对比分析。结果表明：500 hPa位势高度场上中高纬度的亚洲东部区域距平场呈现“+-”的分布或有切断低压分布,贝加尔湖至中国华北地区以经向环流为主;850 hPa风场上云南南部以南受偏南风和西南风控制,并且在江南至华南存在西南或西风急流,是4种不同强度凝冻过程中形势场共性特征。500 hPa高度场上中高纬度地区呈两槽一脊或一槽一脊分布;风场上850 hPa东北风回流和700 hPa西南急流形成上暖下冷的形势场,同时850 hPa形成稳定低层切变线;温度场上存在冷-暖-冷的夹心结构,近地面层0 ℃线维持在900 hPa以下,均是较强等级以上的区域性凝冻过程中形势场共性特征。而对于一般性区域性凝冻过程,500 hPa位势高度场上呈多槽脊分布,风场上是否存在东北风回流和低层切变线,温度场上是否存在冷-暖-冷的夹心结构以及近地面层0 ℃线位置等特征均不统一。温度剖面图上,当近地面层0 ℃线位置最低时或出现冷-暖-冷的夹心结构时段与凝冻过程影响范围最广、灾情最重的时间段对应。     

基于碎屑锆石特征的雅鲁藏布江山南宽谷风成沙丘物源示踪

雅鲁藏布江河谷（尤其是"一江两河"区域）风沙化较为严重,制约了当地社会经济的可持续发展,追踪河谷风沙来源对当地风沙治理意义重大。本研究聚焦于拉萨贡嘎机场附近的山南宽谷风沙地貌,采集2个河沙、3个风成沙丘和1个坡积物样品,以及引用前人研究的2个河沙样品。基于碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄及微量元素地球化学特征,进行沙源示踪研究,旨在为当地风沙治理提供科学依据。对360颗锆石进行LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,获得322个谐和年龄。分析结果表明,河沙、风成沙丘及坡积物样品碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄分布特征高度相似,主要峰值与冈底斯岩浆弧新生代的两期岩浆活动一一对应;非矩阵多维标度统计技术（MDS）分析也证实了样品与冈底斯岩浆弧有良好的亲缘性;地球化学判别图解显示锆石具有亏损轻稀土元素、富集重稀土元素、明显正Ce异常和明显负Eu异常的特征,亦指示其岩浆成因,表明冈底斯岩浆弧为沙丘、河沙与坡积物中碎屑锆石的主要来源。依据不同类型样品碎屑锆石年龄对比以及锆石年龄相似程度对比,结果发现：1）雅鲁藏布江地区风沙地貌主要是由于枯水季河床水位下降,导致河岸和河漫滩出露地表,就地起沙吹扬到山坡上所形成;2）研究区河沙并非主要从上游搬运而来,更多是拉萨河搬运汇入的泥沙。依据沙源分析结果,欲解决河谷风沙化问题,首要应在河岸和河漫滩种植适宜当地气候的耐旱植物固定河床上的泥沙,这是最直接有效的手段。     

太阳活动上升期源表面太阳风质量流量的速度关系分析

以ＩＰＳ速度、光球磁场、Ｋ─日冕偏振亮度和卫星实地观测数据为基础,综合生成处于太阳活动上升期的１９７６年１０个太阳周（１６４３─１６５２卡林顿周）的源表面高度（Ｒ＝２．５Ｒｓ,Ｒｓ为太阳半径）和日球空间中（ＩＡＵ）太阳同质量流量速度谱。结果表明,速度谱存在与太阳活动上升期一致的＂三段＂结构,且各段分别与不同的磁结构区相对应。     

Spectral line profile variations in the γ Doradus variable HD 164615: non-radial pulsations versus star-spots

High-resolution spectral data of the Fe  II 5318 Å line in the γ Doradus star HD 164615 are presented. These show systematic changes in the spectral lineshapes with the photometric period of 0.8133 d which are modelled using either non-radial pulsations or cool star-spots. The non-radial modes that can fit the lineshape changes have m degree of 2–4. However, only the m = 2 mode seems to be consistent with the amplitude of the radial velocity variations measured for this star. The star-spot model, although it can qualitatively fit the lineshape changes, is excluded as a possible hypothesis on the basis of (1) poorer fits to the observed spectral line profiles, (2) an inability to account for the large changes in the spectral linewidth as a function of phase, (3) a predicted radial velocity curve that looks qualitatively different from the observed one, and (4) a predicted photometric curve that is a factor of 5 larger than the observed light curve (and with the wrong qualitative shape). Finally, a 'Doppler image' (assuming cool spots) derived from a sequence of synthetic line profiles having non-radial pulsations results in an image that is almost identical to the Doppler image derived for HD 164615. These results provide strong evidence that non-radial pulsations are indeed the explanation for the variability of HD 164615 as well as the other γ Dor variables.     

Variations of the magnetic field near Mars caused by magnetic crustal anomalies

The possible avenues for photoelectron transport were determined during southern hemisphere winter at Mars by using a mapping analysis of the theoretical magnetic field. Magnetic field line tracing was performed by superposing two magnetic field models: (1) magnetic field derived from a three-dimensional (3D) self-consistent quasi-neutral hybrid model which does not contain the Martian crustal magnetic anomalies and (2) a 3D map of the magnetic field associated with the magnetic anomalies based on Mars Global Surveyor magnetic field measurements. It was found that magnetic field lines connected to the nightside of the planet are mainly channeled within the optical shadow of the magnetotail whereas magnetic field lines connected to the dayside of the planet are observed to form the remainder of the magnetosphere. The simulation suggests that the crustal anomalies create “a magnetic shield” by decreasing the region near Mars which is magnetically connected to the Martian magnetosphere. The rotation of Mars causes periodic changes in magnetic connectivity, but not to qualitative changes in the overall magnetic field draping around Mars.     

Mercury speciation in surface and deep waters of the Mediterranean Sea

Mercury speciation and its distribution in surface and deep waters of the Mediterranean Sea were studied during two oceanographic cruises on board the Italian research vessel URANIA in summer 2003 and spring 2004 as part of the Med Oceaneor and MERCYMS projects. The study included deep water profiles of dissolved gaseous Hg (DGM), reactive Hg (RHg), total Hg (THg), monomethyl Hg (MeHg) and dimethyl Hg (DMeHg) in open ocean waters. Average concentrations of measured Hg species were characterized by seasonal and spatial variations. Overall average THg concentrations ranged between 0.41 and 2.65 pM (1.32 ± 0.48 pM) and were comparable to those obtained in previous studies of the Mediterranean Sea. A significant fraction of Hg was present as “reactive” Hg (average 0.33 ± 0.32 pM). Dissolved gaseous Hg (DGM), which consists mainly of Hg⁰, represents a considerable proportion of THg (average 20%, 0.23 ± 0.11 pM). The portion of DGM typically increased towards the bottom, especially in areas with strong tectonic activity (Alboran Sea, Strait of Sicily, Tyrrhenian Sea), indicating its geotectonic origin. No dimethyl Hg was found in surface waters down to the depth of 40 m. Below this depth, its average concentration was 2.67 ± 2.9 fM. Dissolved fractions of total Hg and MeHg were measured in filtered water samples and were 0.68 ± 0.43 pM and 0.29 ± 0.17 pM for THg and MeHg respectively. The fraction of Hg as MeHg was in average 43%, which is relatively high compared to other ocean environments. The concentrations reported in this study are among the lowest found in marine environments and the quality of analytical methods are of key importance. Speciation of Hg in sea water is of crucial importance as THg concentrations alone do not give adequate data for understanding Hg sources and cycling in marine environments. For example, photoinduced transformations are important for the presence of reactive and elemental mercury in the surface layers, biologically mediated reactions are important for the production/degradation of MeHg and DGM in the photic zones of the water column, and the data for DGM in deep sea indicate the natural sources of Hg in geotectonicaly active areas of the Mediterranean Sea.     

Development and application of an operational tide and storm surge prediction model for the seas around Taiwan

Storm surges are abnormal rises in sea level along coastal areas and are mainly formed by strong wind and atmospheric depressions.When storm surges coincide with high tide,coastal flooding can occur.Creating storm surge prediction systems has been an important and operational task worldwide.This study developed a coupled tide and storm surge numerical model of the seas around Taiwan for operational purposes at the Central Weather Bureau.The model was calibrated and verified by using tidal records from seas around Taiwan.Model skill was assessed based on measured records,and the results are presented in details.At 3-minute resolution,tides were generally well predicted,with the root mean-square errors of less than 0.11 m and an overall correlation of more than 0.9.Storms(winds and depressions) were introduced into the model forcing by using the parameter typhoon model.Five typical typhoons that threatened Taiwan were simulated for assessment.The surges were well predicted compared with the records.