滇西地震的短临综合预报决策研究

本文在短临预报指标研究的基础上，综合考虑各指标在综合预报中的作用，并用层次分析法计算出了参与滇西地震综合预测的各指标的综合权重值，最后进行系统合成，从而对滇西地区的地震的发震时间、地点进行定量化的预测，而对强度预测，而在发震时间预测的前提下，综合考虑指标异常出现的项次及持继时间长短（孕报期的长短），来综合判定预测强度。所得结果，通过１９７５年以来滇西地区２３次Ｍｓ≥５．０级地震检验，时间预测对应率     

STUDY ON CORRELATIVE EARTHQUAKES AND SEISMIC WINDOW NETWORK IN TIANSHAN REGION

In this paper , by using the seismic data of strong earthquake (M≥7) which have occurred since 1900,correlative features of strong earthquake activity in Tianshan region which crosses China and USSR have been studied . Meanwhile , we selected 15 seismic windows (11 in China , 4 in USSR) by censusing , systematically researching and statistically examing seismic data of regional seismic network which are in Chian and USSR.The anomalous features of seismic window and seismic window network , prediction index and prediction plan have been studied . In the same time ,its prediction efficency have been evaluated . Several examples of successful earthquake prediction are given out in this paper .Finally ,the possible physical mechanism of the results are discussed.     

Mapping runoff generating areas using AGNPS-VSA model

ABSTRACT

In humid regions, surface runoff is often generated by saturation-excess runoff mechanisms from relatively small variable source areas (VSAs). However, the majority of the current hydrologic models are based on infiltration-excess mechanisms. In this study, the AGricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AGNPS) model was used to integrate the VSA concept using topographic wetness index (TWI). Both the original and AGNPS-VSA models were evaluated for a small agricultural field in Ontario, Canada. The results indicate that the AGNPS-VSA model performed better than original model. The AGNPS-VSA model predicted that only the saturated portion of the field with higher TWI values produced runoff, whereas the original AGNPS model showed uniform hydrologic response from the entire field. The results of this study are important for accurately mapping the locations of VSAs. This new model could be a powerful tool in identifying critical source areas for applying targeted best management practices to minimize pollutant loads to receiving waters.     

Assessing basin storage: Comparison of hydrometric- and tracer-based indices of dynamic and total storage

Storage is a fundamental but elusive component of drainage basin function, influencing synchronization between precipitation input and streamflow output and mediating basin sensitivity to climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change. We compare hydrometric and isotopic approaches to estimate indices of dynamic and total basin storage, respectively, and assess inter-basin differences in these indices across the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) region of southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage indices for the 20 study basins included the ratio of baseflow to total streamflow (baseflow index BFI), Q ₉₉ flow and flow duration curve (FDC) slope. Ratios of the standard deviation of the streamflow stable isotope signal relative to that of precipitation were determined for each basin from a 1 year bi-weekly sampling program and used as indicators of total storage. Smaller ratios imply longer water travel times, smaller young water fractions (F _yw, < ~2–3 months in age) in streamflow and greater basin storage. Ratios were inversely related to BFI and Q ₉₉, and positively related to FDC slope, suggesting longer travel times and smaller F _yw for basins with stable baseflow-dominated streamflow regimes. Inter-basin differences in all indices reflected topographic, hydrogeologic and LULC controls on storage, which was greatest in steep, forest-covered headwaters underlain by permeable deposits with thick and relatively uniform unsaturated zones. Nevertheless, differential sensitivity of indices to controls on storage indicates the value of using several indices to capture more completely how basin characteristics influence storage. Regression relationships between storage indices and basin characteristics provided reasonable predictions of aspects of the streamflow regime of test basins in the ORM region. Such relationships and the underlying knowledge of controls on basin storage in this landscape provide the foundation for initial predictions of relative differences in streamflow response to regional changes in climate and LULC.     

云南地震前兆与短临预报

在云南地区近３０年前兆观测及其地震预测预报研究与实践的基础上,从映震效能的角度对云南地区的前兆观测进行了一次系统研究,从６４个前兆台站１６８个观测 ,优选出了２０个具有较好映震效能的前兆台项。它们初步构成对云南地区地震进行”时、空、强“预测的骨干前兆指标群。     

震源系统不稳定度指标和强震短临预报

在探讨震源系统不稳定产生的物理基础前提下，应用调制模式提出了利用小震日频次起伏加剧与外因的相关性进行强震的短临时间预报的设想，具体提出了调制小震频次起伏加剧的两个判别震源系统不稳定度的指标λ＿１和λ＿２。前者为单因子调制指标，后者为多因子调制或多因子调制强化指标。关于大震的地点预报，应用立交模式短临阶段出现调制小震通过未来大震的共轭小震活动条带进行预报。     

煤矿微震监测台网优化布设研究

煤矿冲击矿压现象日益严峻,作为矿山动力灾害的主要监测手段,微震监测系统已在许多矿井广泛使用,为保证矿震定位和能量计算的准确,提高预测预报煤矿冲击矿压的可行性,应建立一套台网布设优化及评价系统.应用微震定位和D值优化设计理论,结合煤矿实际条件研究了影响矿震定位精度的主要因素和不利条件,并提出了采用综合指数法确定煤矿高微震活动区域和区域内矿震发生的概率,制定了台站候选点和监测区域确定的一般原则.通过理论分析震中和震源标准差反映台网定位能力的不足,建立基于数值仿真实验方法的震中与震源误差期望值模型,最终形成台网布设优化及评价系统.实验和现场应用结果表明,该系统能够快速确定台网最优布设方案,准确评价台网定位能力,满足煤矿微震监测的需要.     

玛纳斯县城高危震害小区的综合判定

在以玛纳斯县城各居委会小区为单元进行震害预测的基础上,分析了人员伤亡数量,社会财富和无家可归人数三项指标在评判高危震害小区中占有的地位。建立了高危震害小区判定指标公式。指出了玛纳斯县城内的第４,第９居委会小区为高危震害小区。把对高危震害小区的判定从单一定性化推向综合定量化做了一次尝试。     

华东地区测震学指标异常配套和中强震对应关系初探

本文分析了部分地震学指标的物理意义。通过对华东地区1970年以来14个指标的全时间扫描,并使用华东地区Ms≥5.0地震进行对应,结果表明,选取Rm值、b值和AC值进行同步异常分析,能显著提高华东地区的有震报震率,但有漏报。对目前华东地区异常集中区(南黄海及其沿岸地区)进行时间扫描,结果显示该异常集中区未出现同步异常,认为该区域短期内发生中强地震的可能性不大。