Seismicity Quantification and Its Application to Medium-term Earthquake Prediction

Bed on the analysis of each parameter describing seismicity,we think A(b)-value can betterquantitatively describe the feature of the enhancement and quietness of seismicity in this paper. Thedata of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972～1996 in North China are used in space scanningof A(b)-value. The result shows that 2～3 years before most strong earthquakes there wereObviously anomaly zones of A(b)-value with very good prediction effect. Some problems about themedium-term prediction by using A(b)-value are also discussed.     

Annual and monthly rainfall data generation schemes

Synthetic annual and monthly rainfall data series are generated by using autoregressive (AR) processes, Thomas-Fiering (TF) model, method of fragments (F) and its modified version (MF), two-tier (TT) model, and a newly developed wavelet (W) approach. It is seen that the W approach is as well in preserving the statistical behavior of the observed data series as the classical annual and monthly hydrological data generation schemes used in this study. The W approach is found even better in replacing some particular characteristics such as the mean of the sequence and correlation between the successive months in the series. It is, therefore, proposed as a new annual and monthly hydrological data generation scheme.     

环境与发展中的南北关系

在环境与发展的问题上，发达国家与发展中国家之间存在着一种既利益相关又矛盾对立，既有合作又有斗争的相互关系，尤其是围绕温室气体排放和环境贸易问题的合作谈判始终伴随着激烈的南北冲突，作为发展中国家的环境大国，面对环境与发展的国际合作趋势和来自发达国家的挑战，应该采取积极对策，一方面积极开展环境外交，围绕斗争，争取利益，维护主权；另一方面加强环境对策及其理论研究，完善自身环境管理机制，为促进环境与发展的南北合作创造条件。     

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Sea surface temperature and salinity reconstruction based on stable isotopes and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera in the western Pacific Warm Pool during the last 155 ka

Changes in sea surface temperature(SST), seawater oxygen isotope(δ 18 O sw), and local salinity proxy(δ 18 O sw-ss) in the past 155 ka were studied using a sediment core(MD06-3052) from the northern edge of the western Pacifi c Warm Pool(WPWP), within the fl ow path of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. Our records reveal a lead-lag relationship between paired Mg/Ca-SST and δ 18 O during Termination II and the last interglacial period. Similarity in SST between our site and the Antarctic temperature proxy and in CO 2 profi le showed a close connection between the WPWP and the Antarctic. Values of δ 18 O sw exhibited very similar variations to those of mean ocean δ 18 O sw, owing to the past sea-level changes on glacial-interglacial timescale. Calculated values of δ 18 O sw-ss refl ect a more saline condition during high local summer insolation(SI) periods. Such correspondence between δ 18 O sw-ss and local SI in the WPWP may refl ect complex interaction between ENSO and monsoon, which was stimulated by changes in solar irradiance and their infl uence on the local hydrologic cycle. This then caused a striking reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the WPWP.     

模拟堆载作用的黄土边坡土体变形机理试验

通过固结不排水剪试验,研究了堆载作用下不同深度、含水量和围压的原状黄土的变形和破坏特征,并从黄土的微观结构角度分析了产生这一现象的原因,结合黄土边坡特殊的工程地质条件,分析了堆载作用下黄土边坡土体的变形破坏过程。试验结果表明,不同深度、含水量和围压的原状黄土的应力应变曲线和抗剪强度具有不同的特征;特殊的工程地质条件,使黄土坡体的某些部位形成了堆载作用下不利于黄土材料强度保持的含水量和围压的组合,导致了这些部位黄土的变形破坏,进而诱发坡体的变形破坏。     

汶川特大地震之北川县城震害分析

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震在北川县城造成了巨大的破坏,导致上万人死亡,整个北川县城变为废墟。现场地震科考分析显示,造成北川县城建筑物和道路严重损毁以及人员重大伤亡的三个主要原因为:活断层错动产生的地表破裂效应,地震引发的次生地质灾害(崩塌、滑坡)和强地震动产生的振动破坏效应。北川县城主断裂和次级断裂沿线分布的建筑物震害较重,而邻近断裂的建筑物震害相对较轻;地震触发的王家岩滑坡和景家山崩塌对北川县城造成了极大的破坏,导致2000余人死亡;而振动破坏效应在北川县城普遍存在,它产生的水平剪切运动对建筑物的危害很严重。     

内陆水体好氧甲烷氧化过程研究进展

内陆水体是全球碳循环的关键组成部分,是大气中甲烷(CH4)的重要来源,每年从内陆淡水与自然湿地排放进入大气的CH4约为185～357 Tg/a.通常,内陆水体中CH4主要由分布于水层底部的厌氧区或沉积层内的产甲烷菌介导产生,其向水层表面传输的过程中易被甲烷氧化菌所氧化.甲烷氧化菌可分为好氧甲烷氧化菌和厌氧甲烷氧化菌,有...     

地震非均匀度在华北地震中短期预报中的应用

利用空间扫描方法研究了华北地区中强以上地震前地震非均匀度GL值的中短期异常变化特征，结果表明在中强地震前1年左右，未来震中周围的GL值中期异常区通常出现明显的收缩或消失，一些地震临震前数月还再次出现GL值异常区，讨论了使用GL值进行地震中短期预报的有关问题。     

甘肃礼县盐关井水位短临异常与滇北强震的关系

在分析了甘肃礼县盐关井水位20多年来的异常变化与邻近地区发生中强地震的对应关系基础上,着重就18年来井水位出现两次较大幅度的负异常与相距1000 km多的云南禄劝1985年6.1级地震和云南大姚2003年6.2级地震的对应关系进行了探讨,认为该井很可能是滇北两个震区强震的“穴位”和灵敏点。