三峡水库初期蓄水对长江口淡水资源的影响

2003年6月1~15日和同年10月20~31日三峡水库进行了初期蓄水。6月份水库蓄水后使下游大通流量减少了37%,长江口的淡水资源的持续时数降低了40%,最大盐度增加了3倍,平均盐度增加了6倍;10月份水库蓄水使大通流量减少了1/2,淡水资源的持续时间呈现下降趋势,最大盐度增加了3倍左右,平均盐度也有类似的表现。再从流量的沿程变化、流量的变化程度、影响河口淡水的持续时间、河口淡水资源影响因子方面进行了讨论,认为三峡蓄水是这两次河口淡水资源减少的主要原因。     

长江三峡地区的夷平面在宜昌地区白垩纪—第四纪沉积物中的反映

通过对湖北宜昌地区白垩纪-第四纪沉积演化的研究,发现存在3个明显的沉积旋回,每个旋回由下部颗粒粗大的砾石层和上部颗粒较细小的粉砂-泥质层组成。3个沉积旋回对应了宜昌以西三峡地区3期构造演化旋回,同时反映了三峡地区3期夷平面的存在。结合前人研究结果、古生物化石和对第四系善溪窑组的测年数据,认为3期夷平面形成时代分别为:鄂西期夷平面形成于白垩纪晚期-古近纪的始新世,山原期夷平面形成于上新世-早更新世初,云梦期夷平面形成于早更新世末-中更新世早期。     

Application of probabilistic neural network to design breakwater armor blocks

This study presents a probabilistic neural network (PNN) technique for predicting the stability number of armor blocks of breakwaters. The PNN is prepared using the experimental data of Van der Meer. The predicted stability numbers of the PNN are compared with those of previous studies, i.e. by an empirical formula and a previous neural network model. The agreement index between the measured and predicted stability numbers by PNN are better than those by the previous studies. The PNN offers a way to interpret the network's structure in the form of a probability density function and it is easy to implement. Therefore, it can be an effective tool for designers of rubble mound breakwaters.     

Hydrocarbon- Generating Model of the Area Covered With Volcanic Rock

The distribution of Oil & gas fields shows their close relationship with the most active tectonic regions. This is not a coincidence but having a scientific reasons. The crustal active regions, refer to the places where the active natural earthquake, volcanic activities, underground water happened, and the areas of the leaking off of natural gas to the surface of the crust. The magma of volcanic activities brings the organic "kitchen range body" hydrocarbon- generating model and inorganic genetic hydrocarbon to the regions covered by volcanic rock. Underground water brings a catalytic hydrocarbongenerating model for organic matter, and the leaking- off of H2 and CO2 contributes a synthetic hydrocarbon - generating model. Volcanic activities bring the assemblage of Source, Reservoir and Seal formed by the sediments and magma the sedimentary basins, and the hydrocarbon - generating system with a "water - volcano" binary structure is formed. All these conditions are favorable and excellent for the formation of oil & gas fields. The distribution of American oil & gas fields have very close relationship with the mines of Fe, Mn, Ct, Mo, W and V, deposits of Zn, Cu, V, Pb, Al and Hg, and the deposits of fluorite, sulfur, potassium salt, phosphate and halite, and the distribution of sulfate- chloride of river water. The reason why few oil & gas fields discovered in the regions covered by volcanic rock in western America maybe because of the view of "inconsistency between petroleum and volcano". Further more, It's very difficult to carry out a geophysical exploration in such kinds of regions.This paper examined a few hydrocarbon-generating models (systems) mentioned above and came up with some fresh ideas on the exploration in the areas covered with volcanic rocks.     

西太平洋暖池1990s中期的年代际扩张对夏季登陆中国台风的影响

应用美国联合预警中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)的台风最佳路径资料、美国国家海洋大气局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,NOAA)的扩展海表面温度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)和美国国家大气科学研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)的大气环流场资料,研究了20世纪90年代西太平洋暖池(简称暖池)年代际扩张对西北太平洋台风和登陆中国沿岸台风的影响。研究发现,相比于暖池扩张前期(1965—1992),后期(1993—2013)台风生成在西北太平洋中部区域(10°—20°N,135°—145°E)显著减弱,在10°—20°N,145°—160°E区域和南海北部区域则表现出增多的特点。台风移动路径变异特征呈现为移动进入南海和登陆中国东部沿岸的西行和西北行路径减少,登陆日本的转向型路径增多,同时登陆我国海南岛和东南部沿岸的台风增多。进一步探查这种影响的可能原因发现,与暖池扩张密切相关的太平洋年代际变化引起的纬向环流的变异是西北太平洋中部台风生成减少的主要原因;而南海北部台风生成增多则归因于南海区域局地环流特征的变异。同时,南海北部台风生成增多是登陆我国海南岛和东南沿岸台风增多的主要决定因素。     

用应变积累释放模型研究中国大陆地块分区地震活动

依据活动地块假说及活动边界的划分,对中国大陆地震活动进行分区．在此基础上,应用应变积累释放模型,通过地震应变积累释放的计算,研究了中国大陆各活动地块分区的地震活动性,初步探讨了各地块的地震活动阶段划分．此外,还对应变积累释放模型的应用前提条件进行了必要的讨论,并对模型结果中可能出现的问题给予一定分析．     

Field Measurement of Suction, Water Content, and Water Permeability

This paper presents a review of techniques for field measurement of suction, water content, and water hydraulic conductivity (permeability). Main problems in the use of field tensiometers are addressed and hints on how to improve tensiometer performance are given. Advantages and limitations of instruments for indirect measurement of suction including electrical conductivity sensors, thermal conductivity sensors, dielectric permittivity sensors, filter paper, and psychrometer are discussed. Techniques for water content measurement based on dielectric methods are then presented. These include time and amplitude domain reflectometry and capacitance. Finally, a brief overview of methods for measurement of water permeability in the field is presented.     

中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

长江沿江地区化工产业空间格局演化及影响因素

基于企业数据和空间计量方法,探讨了长江沿江地区2000—2013年化工产业空间格局演化及影响因素。结果表明：化工产业主要分布在上海市和江苏沿江地区;中上游部分地区化工产业呈现明显的增长势头,由3个主要热点区发展到20余个不同规模大小的分布热点,成为化工产业新兴“增长极”;城市主城区化工产业减少而远郊区县增加,分布热点变化也反映了化工产业“郊区化”“园区化”的过程;相对低端基础的行业呈现集聚趋势,其中肥料业集聚明显;相对高端精细的行业呈现扩散趋势,其中合成材料业分散化明显;地区化工产业增长受到环境规制、外商投资、交通区位等因素显著影响,外商投资和交通区位具有显著的促进作用,而环境规制呈现显著的抑制效果。     

中国长三角地区PM2.5时空分布数值模拟研究

利用第三代空气质量预报模式LOTOS-EUROS(Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog)对2018年中国长三角地区细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度的时空分布进行数值模拟,通过对比模拟结果与地面观测值,验证模式对PM2.5长期特征模拟的合理性并探讨长三角地区P...