Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.     

Optimization of SAGD Well Elevation

The application of steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to recover heavy oil sands is becoming increasingly important in the northern Alberta McMurray Formation because of the vast resources/reserves accessible with this mechanism. Selecting the stratigraphic elevations of SAGD well pairs is a vital decision for reservoir evaluation and planning. The inherent uncertainty in the distribution of geological variables significantly influences this decision. Geostatistical simulation is used to capture geological uncertainty, which is used can be transformed into a distribution of the best possible well pair elevations. A simple exhaustive calculation scheme is used to determine the optimum stratigraphic location of a SAGD well pair where the recovery R is maximized. There are three basic steps to the methodology: (1) model the uncertainty in the top continuous bitumen (TCB) and bottom continuous bitumen (BCB) surfaces, (2) calculate the recovery at all possible elevation increments within the TCB and BCB interval, and (3) identify the elevation that maximizes R. This is repeated for multiple TCB/BCB pairs of surfaces to assess uncertainty. The methodology is described and implemented on a subset of data from the Athabasca Oilsands in Fort McMurray, Alberta.     

Construction Problems on the Karstified Limestone Tuffs of Condeixa, Central Portugal: A Case Study

During the excavations for the foundations of a three storey building on the limestone tuffs of Condeixa, Central Portugal, a large dissolution fissure and smaller dissolution voids were found. Since the area has never been the subject of engineering geology investigation, it was decided to evaluate the risk associated with the construction of the building. These limestone tuffs were formed in a continental environment by the precipitation of calcite carried by the water coming from the large limestone body in the east. The precipitated calcite mixed with the terrigenous materials and around trunks and leaves of plants, originating a very heterogeneous and porous ground, which is characteristic of limestone tuffs. The study started with a detailed geological survey followed by a large number of destructive drillings, located essentially under the pad foundations. The results revealed several karstic cavities with serious problems for the building foundations and the structure, and many smaller dissolution cavities, often filled with clayey soils. The ground treatment solutions used included, dental cleaning, filling with concrete or granular material the dissolution structures accessible at the level of the foundation, reinforcement of the footing and the structure of the building and adding a continuous foundation beam to hold the foundations together. The cost of the engineering geology study, site investigation, ground treatment, and the reinforcement of the foundation and building, increased the total construction cost from 2%, at the design stage, to 4.8%.     

Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.     

Site Investigation for the Effects of Vegetation on Ground Stability

The procedure for geotechnical site investigation is well established but little attention is currently given to investigating the potential of vegetation to assist with ground stability. This paper describes how routine investigation procedures may be adapted to consider the effects of the vegetation. It is recommended that the major part of the vegetation investigation is carried out, at relatively low cost, during the preliminary (desk) study phase of the investigation when there is maximum flexibility to take account of findings in the proposed design and construction. The techniques available for investigation of the effects of vegetation are reviewed and references provided for further consideration. As for general geotechnical investigation work, it is important that a balance of effort is maintained in the vegetation investigation between (a) site characterisation (defining and identifying the existing and proposed vegetation to suit the site and ground conditions), (b) testing (in-situ and laboratory testing of the vegetation and root systems to provide design parameters) and (c) modelling (to analyse the vegetation effects).