GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Testing the discrimination and detection limits of WorldView-2 imagery on a challenging invasive plant target

Invasive plants pose significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function globally, leading to costly monitoring and management effort. While remote sensing promises cost-effective, robust and repeatable monitoring tools to support intervention, it has been largely restricted to airborne platforms that have higher spatial and spectral resolutions, but which lack the coverage and versatility of satellite-based platforms. This study tests the ability of the WorldView-2 (WV2) eight-band satellite sensor for detecting the invasive shrub mesquite (Prosopis spp.) in the north-west Pilbara region of Australia. Detectability was challenged by the target taxa being largely defoliated by a leaf-tying biological control agent (Gelechiidae: Evippe sp. #1) and the presence of other shrubs and trees. Variable importance in the projection (VIP) scores identified bands offering greatest capacity for discrimination were those covering the near-infrared, red, and red-edge wavelengths. Wavelengths between 400 nm and 630 nm (coastal blue, blue, green, yellow) were not useful for species level discrimination in this case. Classification accuracy was tested on three band sets (simulated standard multispectral, all bands, and bands with VIP scores ≥1). Overall accuracies were comparable amongst all band-sets (Kappa = 0.71–0.77). However, mesquite omission rates were unacceptably high (21.3%) when using all eight bands relative to the simulated standard multispectral band-set (9.5%) and the band-set informed by VIP scores (11.9%). An incremental cover evaluation on the latter identified most omissions to be for objects <16 m². Mesquite omissions reduced to 2.6% and overall accuracy significantly improved (Kappa = 0.88) when these objects were left out of the confusion matrix calculations. Very high mapping accuracy of objects >16 m² allows application for mapping mesquite shrubs and coalesced stands, the former not previously possible, even with 3 m resolution hyperspectral imagery. WV2 imagery offers excellent portability potential for detecting other species where spectral/spatial resolution or coverage has been an impediment. New generation satellite sensors are removing barriers previously preventing widespread adoption of remote sensing technologies in natural resource management.     

基于点云空洞修复和TPS模型的数学形态学机载LIDAR滤波

在分析现有滤波算法的基础上,结合数据驱动和模型驱动式算子各自的优点,提出基于点云空洞修复和TPS变形模型的数学形态学机载LIDAR点云滤波,该方法首先提取和修复由水域造成的大面积点云空洞,采用多尺度形态学开算子作用于修复的数据,得到近似裸露地表面;然后利用2D空间的TPS变形模型,以近似地表面为基础,插值原始点云,根据插值与原始点云高程的差值大小去识别地面点和非地面点。通过定量分析,验证该方法不仅有较高的滤波精度,而且也能较好的保留裸露地表的细节特征,同时该方法有助于辅助人工处理,提高数据处理的质量。     

经验加速度补偿对HY-2A卫星精密定轨的影响

针对HY-2A卫星定轨中存在系统误差的问题,该文提出了加入经验加速度补偿系统误差。为了获得HY-2A卫星的高精度轨道,采用星载DORIS距离变率数据探索了经验加速度对定轨精度的影响。探讨了1d、3d和7d作为经验加速度周期的定轨精度差异,分析了3d作为经验加速度周期时在径向、法向和切向3个方向设置经验加速度对定轨精度的不同影响。研究结果表明:HY-2A卫星在径向和切向不存在系统误差,而在法向存在系统误差,因而在法向设置经验加速度进行力学模型补偿能够取得较好的定轨结果;3d作为经验加速度的补偿周期较为合适,不仅能够减少解算参数个数,缩短计算时间,而且径向定轨精度可达到1.00cm,满足HY-2A卫星精密定轨需求。     

The use of WorldView-2 satellite imagery to model urban drainage system with low impact development (LID) Techniques

Within a wide range of best management practices for stormwater management in urban areas, there has been an increasing interest in source control measures. Source controls such as low-impact development (LID) techniques are potentially attractive as retrofit options for older developed areas that lack available land to implement conventional measures such as stormwater management ponds. Hence, distributed urban drainage models requiring detailed representation of developed drainage areas should be developed to accurately estimate the benefits that LIDs may provide. This study (1) presents a two-stage classification process on a high-resolution WorldView-2 image, and (2) demonstrates how to use the extracted land cover information in the subsequent hydrologic modelling and assessment of different LIDs’ performance. The proposed two-stage classification method achieved an overall accuracy of 80.6%, whereas a traditional pixel-based achieved 68.4% in classifying the same urban area into six land cover classes. From the classification results, the hydrologic properties of micro-subcatchments were imported in the United States Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model to assess the performance of LIDs. A reduction of run-off volume 18.2% and 37.1% was found with the implementation of porous pavement and bioretention, respectively, in a typical low-rise residential area located in the city of San Clemente, California, US. The study demonstrates the use of high-resolution remote sensing image to aid in evaluating LID retrofit options, and thus benefits in situations where detailed drainage area information is not available.     

成岩作用与油气侵位对砂岩铀成矿的约束--以准南硫磺沟地区头屯河组砂岩铀成矿为例

为了解准噶尔盆地南缘硫磺沟地区中侏罗统头屯河组砂岩成岩-流体演化与铀成矿响应,进而客观评价其成矿潜力。通过光薄片鉴定、X衍射、扫描电镜分析得出:目的层主要为岩屑细砂岩,依次经历了浅埋藏、深埋藏和表生-热液成岩阶段,遭受较强的机械压实、胶结及溶蚀作用。其黏土矿物以高岭石为主,碳酸盐矿物有细亮晶和泥晶两类,硅质胶结微弱,局部见细晶黄铁矿及其褐铁矿氧化产物。成岩环境可能经历了由酸性到弱碱性再到酸性,由同生期氧化-浅埋期还原-短暂抬升期氧化还原过渡-缓慢沉降期还原增强-快速抬升期氧化的演化过程。砂岩中存在较多油气包裹体;酸解总烃为5.72~449.14 μL/kg,以CH₄为主;方解石脉δ13C_V-PDB为-25‰~-6.7‰,δ18O_V-SMOW为11.1‰~18.9‰;结合野外调查认为目的层存在一期中等偏弱的后生油气侵位,从而影响了砂体的Eh及pH值。以上成岩过程及烃类流体活动使得目的层早期形成了小型层间氧化带型铀矿并得以局部保存,晚期形成了一定规模的地表潜水氧化带型铀矿体。     

基于光谱特征的月球岩性分类方法研究——以Apollo 16登月区域为例

利用NASA行星数据系统提供Apollo计划登月点采样线路影像数据,通过与嫦娥二号CCD数据、印度M~3数据空间校正获得采样路线坐标。开展嫦娥二号CCD数据与印度M~3数据MAP(后验概率)融合并选择Apollo 15、Apollo 16-62231的LSCC测得的标准岩石双向反射率光谱与M~3、嫦娥二号进行交叉定标。本文采用月球岩石光谱谱型全特征分析方法,选取涵盖Apollo计划登月获取的36个基站主要岩性87种、285件岩石样品,利用校正后的M~3数据分析月球典型岩石各阶吸收反射特征,建立月球典型岩石标准遥感影像光谱库,此后应用Apollo 623个岩石样品进行对比得到很好结果,同时完成Apollo 16登月点周围领域岩性分布图,并讨论了研究区的岩石成因,Apollo 16区域形成于高地大撞击,在早期的研究中已经被用于划分月球年代,本文方法对于月球岩石类别研究与理解月球的岩浆演化具有重要的研究价值。     

谷歌地球在水井项目信息管理中的应用

利用Excel表建立水井项目信息数据库,设立条件关系编写KML运行程序,利用谷歌地球应用软件阅读水井信息,使水井分布和水井属性在平面内显示。极大的方便了水井项目立项、施工、维护等工作。     

甘肃宝积山盆地中侏罗世石拐茨康叶表皮构造及古环境意义

甘肃宝积山盆地中侏罗统窑街组发现茨康类植物化石,通过对其外部形态和表皮构造研究,认定为石拐茨康叶(Czekanowskia(Vachrameevia)shiguaiensis)。对比当前化石及其现存最近对应种(the nearest living equivalent species)—Ginkgo biloba L.的气孔比率,得到宝积山盆地在中侏罗世的古大气CO_2体积分数为1.55×10~(-3),数值接近GEOCARBⅢ碳平衡模型的拟合曲线,表明茨康叶属植物也是恢复古大气CO_2体积分数的良好材料。同时,通过角质层特征进行古环境重建,结果表明宝积山盆地在中侏罗世时期气候较为温和湿润。     

尕斯库勒盐湖中CO_2-卤水-盐岩相互作用模拟研究

利用PHREEQC软件模拟CO2侵入后,尕斯库勒盐湖中CO2-卤水-岩盐之间的相互作用。CO2侵入卤水层后,卤水中元素的化学形态种类和大小发生变化,特别是碳酸盐型的络合物形态增多。CO2侵入后,除了碳酸盐、石盐和硫酸盐矿物达到饱和被析出外,其余矿物的不饱和程度加剧,卤水的TDS增大,pH值减小。卤水中U的含量在CO2侵入后发生沉淀而减小。研究成果对深入评估区域内盐水层CO2地质封存的环境风险和利用CO2分离提取盐湖卤水中的铀元素提供理论依据。