河南省城市化水平综合评价及区域格局分析

根据城市化的内涵构建城市化水平综合评价指标体系,采用多目标决策TOPSIS法结合信息熵赋权法,对河南2001-2009年各地市的城市化水平进行综合评价分析;继而采用ESDA-GIS方法,对河南城市化综合水平的地域空间格局演化特征进行探讨。研究表明,河南各地市城市化综合水平虽然自2001年以来均获得了不同程度的提升,但地市间城市化水平的绝对差异和相对差异均呈拉大趋势;城市化热点地区在空间上表现出由集中分布向随机分布的演变态势,但整体上仍呈现出以中原城市群地区为核心的热点区和以外围地市为冷点区的核心—边缘型空间格局,由此认为着力推进边缘化传统农区的城市化进程是实现河南城市化区域协调发展的关键。     

ArcGIS证据权模型在铜矿成矿预测中的应用 ——以博格达-哈尔里克成矿带为例

本文选择博格达-哈尔里克一带作为研究区,从区域成矿地质背景入手,鉴于该地区已知成型铜矿床较少,成矿规律研究薄弱,故作者采用ArcGIS平台下的证据权模型(WofE),以数据驱动方式为主,从断裂构造、沉积岩相与建造、火山岩建造、侵入岩岩性等方面,以学生化反差S(C)作为有利因子衡量指标,对各控矿因素进行影响程度分类,利用加权逻辑斯回归模型计算成矿后验概率,根据后验概率值的大小进行成矿远景区的圈定和分级,在博格达-哈尔里克成矿带内共圈定7个成矿远景区。最后结合区域化探资料进行了验证,结果显示所圈定的铜矿成矿远景区内化探异常明显,与Cu元素异常套合较好,说明ArcGIS证据权模型能很好地为区域矿产预测提供良好的技术支撑,为研究区铜矿找矿方向提供理论依据,文中所总结的基于ArcGIS平台的证据权计算方法流程也为区域矿产预测提供了方法借鉴。     

Spatial analyses of factors affecting household structure in Chinese cities: The case of three-generation lineal households

Household structure is an important aspect of family change during China’s modernization process. Existing literature has demonstrated significant associations between various factors and household structure, but the spatial variation in these relationships has not been examined. Using the 2010 Chinese population census data and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, this study explored the spatial patterns of three-generation lineal households, a functionally important household type in China, and its influencing factors. There was significant heterogeneity in the distribution of three-generation lineal households. Socioeconomic, demographic, and cultural factors were all significantly related to the proportion of three-generation lineal households, but the relationships are place-specific in terms of direction and magnitude. These results suggest that the distribution of Chinese household structures cannot be explained by a single framework of family modernization theory but is determined by the interplay of various local characteristics. Especially, population migration plays an equally important role in affecting household structure than socioeconomic development in China. This work contributes to the family literature by highlighting the spatial heterogeneity in the impact of varying factors on household structure. Beyond the classic modernization theory, it sets a contextualized framework for understanding how Chinese household change in response to the rapid social transformation.     

沿黄九省工业水资源效率及其影响因素的时空异质性

科学评估工业水资源效率并识别其影响因素是缓解水资源供需矛盾的重要前提。基于非期望产出的超效率EBM（Epsilon-based measure）模型测度了沿黄九省2010—2019年的工业水资源效率,然后构建Tobit模型分析其全局影响因素,在此基础上选取显著性影响因素纳入时空地理加权回归模型,探究各影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明：沿黄九省工业水资源效率均值为0.77,未达到有效水平,但呈现出波动上升态势。各省份之间效率差异明显,山东最高（1.064）,宁夏最低（0.424）。在影响因素的宏观层面,技术水平和工业化程度对工业水资源效率攀升有正向促进作用;水资源禀赋、社会发展水平、工业用水强度和政府规制程度皆存在抑制效应,但显著程度不同,且高显著性影响因素的效应具有不同的时间演化趋势;在微观层面,各省份工业水资源效率的主导影响因素及其效应存在空间差异。     

高速铁路建设对我国省际可达性空间格局的影响

以省会城市为网络中的节点,采用加权平均旅行时间指标对我国"四纵四横"高速铁路网及长三角、珠三角和环渤海地区城际客运系统建成前后省际可达性及演变态势进行分析。研究表明,高速铁路建设使东中西地带内、地带间及省区的总体可达性均获得了大幅度提升,可达性中心区的范围沿骨干客运专线向华南、西南和西北地区拓展,圈层状空间格局依然很突出,两极分化趋势在加剧,高速铁路网建设对各地区的空间经济效应还存在很大差异。经过对高速铁路建成前后各省区的地带内、地带间及总体可达性空间格局的对比分析,从客观上论证了高速铁路建设的必要性及加强省际经济联系的重要性。     

foF2月中值太阳循环变化及单站谱模型研究

利用我国9个电离层观测站第21和22太阳周大约20年的f_oF₂月中值数据,分析太阳活动和地磁活动对电离层f_oF₂的影响,结果显示白天和夏季夜间f_oF₂和太阳黑子数R之间存在着明显非线性关系,并且随着纬度的降低逐渐增强．当回归分析加入地磁Ap指数时,多重回归模型与实测值误差进一步减小,说明同时考虑太阳活动和地磁活动的非线性影响能够更好地描述f_oF₂的变化．基于f_oF₂太阳黑子数R及地磁指数Ap之间的非线性统计关系,利用Fourier 级数建立9个单站谱模型,并与国际参考电离层IRI进行了比较,精度有一定提高．     

Temporally weighted average curve number method for daily runoff simulation

The modified Soil Conservation Service curve number (CN) method is widely used in long‐term continuous models to predict daily surface runoff. However, it has been shown that this method gives poor results in reproducing peak flows in high rainfall periods. This is because there is an inaccuracy stemming from the model algorithm as it adjusts the daily runoff curve number as a function of soil moisture content at the end of the previous day. This paper proposes an alternative daily based curve number technique that can provide better prediction of daily runoff during the high flow season. The proposed method uses the temporally weighted average curve number (TWA‐CN) to estimate daily surface runoff, while considering the effect of rainfall during a given day as well as the antecedent soil moisture condition. To test the applicability of the TWA‐CN method, it was incorporated with the long‐term, continuous simulation watershed models SWAT and SWAT‐G. Simulations were conducted for the Miho River watershed located in the middle of South Korea. The graphical displays and statistics of the determination coefficient (R²) and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) of the observed and simulated daily runoff indicated that the modified SWAT with the TWA‐CN method may provide better runoff prediction (R² = 0·837, NSE = 0·833) than the original SWAT (R² = 0·815, NSE = 0·824). Likewise, the determination coefficient (R² = 0·816) and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0·834) for the modified SWAT‐G are also higher than the original version (R² = 0·782, NSE = 0·825). It is expected that the improved capability in predicting surface runoff using the suggested CN estimate method will provide a sound contribution to the accurate simulations of water yield. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust LS-SVM regression for ore grade estimation in a seafloor hydrothermal sulphide deposit

Due to the geological complexities of ore body formation and limited borehole sampling, this paper proposes a robust weighted least square support vectormachine (LS-SVM) regression model to solve the ore grade estimation for a seafloor hydrothermal sulphide deposit in Solwara 1, which consists of a large proportion of incomplete samples without ore types and grade values. The standard LS-SVM classification model is applied to identify the ore type for each in complete sample. Then, a weighted K-nearest neighbor (WKNN) algorithm is proposed to interpolate the missing values. Prior to modeling, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to obtain an appropriate splitting for the training and test data sets so as to eliminate the large discrepancies caused by randomdivision. Coupled simulated annealing (CSA) and grid search using 10-fold cross validation techniques are adopted to determine the optimal tuning parameters in the LS-SVM models. The effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing with other well-known techniques such as inverse distance weight (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and back propagation (BP) neural network is demonstrated. The experimental results show that the robust weighted LS-SVM outperforms the othermethods, and has strong predictive and generalization ability.     

到达地面的紫外辐射强度预报

紫外线指数一般用０～１５的数字来表示,通常规定,夜间的紫外线指数为０,在热带高原地区,晴天无云时的紫外线指数为１５。世界气象组织规定了单位紫外线指数相当于２５ｍＷ／ｍ＾２红斑加权剂量率。紫外线指数预报大致可分为统计预报方法和模式预报方法两种。统计预报方法主要依赖于高精密度、高准确性的紫外线实测资料和相关的气象要素观测;而模式预报方法则主要依赖于对平流层臭氧的预报和大气辐射传输模式的应用。     

基于街景图像的厦门本岛环境特征对住宅价格的影响研究

住宅价格的空间分异是城市空间资源配置不均衡的外在表现,理解住宅价格的主导影响因素及其空间分异特征对于住区规划及房价调控政策的制定具有重要意义。既有研究较少考虑环境品质对住宅价格的影响和影响因素的作用尺度差异,针对以上问题,本文引入街景图像,在特征价格模型的基础上拓展环境特征,构建多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型,研究环境特征对住宅价格的影响效用,并通过分析其他控制变量的系数空间格局,总结各变量的空间分异特征规律。主要结论为：(1)街景图像测度的环境特征更符合人们对居住环境的真实感知,研究结论可为居住环境品质提升提供更加精细化的设计策略;MGWR模型对变量的空间分异现象具有更接近于真实值的拟合效果,可描述不同变量的作用尺度差异,这有助于为特定地区制定针对性规划策略。(2)厦门本岛住宅价格呈现显著的聚类特征,并沿城市核心发展轴呈“带状”结构分布。(3) 3个环境特征变量对于住宅价格均为显著的正向影响,且作用接近全局尺度,街景绿视率的影响最强,其次是天空开敞度和相对步行指数。(4)总结各变量的系数空间分异规律,发现不同特征地区住宅价格的主导影响因素不同,核心地区主要受交通、教育因素的影响;...