基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。     

GNSS地面测试环境中关于影响站址选择因素的考虑

卫星导航产品在投入正式运行之前需要在地面上对其进行测试和校准,因此需要在地面建立模拟天上GPS卫星星座的测试环境,并通过修建伪卫星发射塔来发射类GPS卫星信号。测试环境中关于伪卫星发射塔站址选择问题是一个值得关注的硬件建设环节,它直接影响了系统的运行性能,本文通过对五个影响站址选择的因素进行论述,详细地说明了它们各自的影响特征,给出了相应的结论。     

Practical kinetic modeling of petroleum generation and expulsion

Models for petroleum generation used by the industry are often limited by (a) sub-optimal laboratory pyrolysis methods for studying hydrocarbon generation, (b) over-simple models of petroleum generation, (c) inappropriate mathematical methods to derive kinetic parameters by fitting laboratory data, (d) primitive models of primary migration/expulsion and its coupling with petroleum generation, and (e) insufficient use of subsurface data to constrain the models. Problems (a), (b) and (c) lead to forced compensation effects between the activation energies and frequency factors of reaction kinetics that are wholly artificial, and which yield poor extrapolations to geological conditions. Simple switch or adsorption models of expulsion are insufficient to describe the residence time of species in source rocks. Yet, the residence time controls the thermal stresses to which the species are subjected for cracking to lighter species.     

夏季长江口外海区域上升流现象的数值研究

基于Blumberg等(1996)的ECOMSED模式,对长江口外海区域夏季的上升流现象进行了数值模拟.模式综合考虑径流,风应力,环流,热通量和M_2,S_2,K_1,O_1四个主要分潮的作用,从而提高长江口外海区域上升流模拟的准确性和可靠性,并通过各种控制实验分析了其动力机制,进一步说明本区域影响上升流的主要因子.数值实验表明,长江口外水下河谷的南边(杭州湾口门中心东侧),上升流主要是由向北流动的台湾暖流通过底Ekman效应和陆坡的抬升共同作用产生的.夏季偏南风对长江口外水下河谷西侧上升流的产生有一定影响,但作用不大.此外,潮汐潮流对上升流的产生也起着一定的作用,但在本文关注的上升流区潮作用影响不大.     

台风对海洋叶绿素a浓度影响的定量遥感初探

研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响,是目前海洋遥感技术又一应用领域。由于台风期间天气恶劣,遥感资料较少,国际上主要针对个别典型台风,研究其对海表温度、海洋叶绿素a浓度及初级生产力的影响,很少通过遥感资料系统地对这一影响进行定量分析和建模。自2000到2007年,过境中国近海以及西北太平洋海域台风近百次,作者通过系统地分析这期间MODIS,SeaWiFS的3A级叶绿素a浓度数据,结果发现:(1)台风促进了相应海域叶绿素a浓度的大幅增长,总体上平均增长约1.426倍,个别区域在5倍以上,同时,该增长一般延后3~6d,在7~10d后恢复到原来的水平;(2)进一步对这些数据进行一元统计线性回归,发现叶绿素a浓度增长比(R_chl-a)与台风影响因子(Tsub>w)满足如下关系:R_chl-a=0.0012Tsub>w+1.017,其相关系数达0.8;(3)台风期间叶绿素a浓度与无台风时叶绿素a浓度之间有很强的线性关系,其关系满足:C_chl-a=1.2367C_0chl-a+0.0636,且相关系数高达0.98。这一初步研究结果对进一步通过遥感手段深入研究台风对海洋水色环境的影响有借鉴意义。     

三个牙鲆育种群体亲本效应及遗传参数估计

针对牙鲆(Paralichthys olivaceus)养殖品种生长速度变慢、抗病力降低这一问题。近年来构建了牙鲆抗病群体(RS)、日本群体(JS)和黄海群体(YS)3个育种群体,开展牙鲆选择育种,建立了63个家系,收集了所有家系5 328尾鱼苗的体长和体重数据。借助线形混合模型(Linear mixedmodel)、"加性-显性"模型、约束极大似然法(REML)及最佳线性无偏预测(BLUP)分别估计亲本效应值、体重和体长遗传力和遗传相关、父母本效应和杂交效应。预测结果显示,其中父本130,141,146,170,218,229,303和308随机效应达到了极显著效应水平(P<0.01),父本112,122,141,190,212达到显著水平(P<0.05),所有母本体重随机效应达到了极显著水平(P<0.01);体长和体重两性状的加性、显性、表型和基因型相关分量都达到极显著水平(P<0.01),体长和体重的加性方差比率均大于显性方差比率,可见两性状的遗传效应主要取决于基因的加性效应。体长的总遗传效应率为31.20%,体重的总遗传效应率为33.58%,体长和体重的随机方差比率分别达到68.80%和66.41%,说明养殖环境等因素对牙鲆体长和体重的影响较大,同时说明在牙鲆选择育种中消除环境影响极为重要。体长和体重的狭义遗传率分别为0.199和0.256(P<0.01),广义遗传率分别为0.312和0.336(P<0.01),牙鲆在以上两性状上属于中等遗传力,通过选择育种可取得较大的遗传进展。对3个牙鲆育种群体杂交随机效应估计结果显示,抗病群体和黄海群体在体长和体重两性状上加性随机效应显著(P<0.05);抗病群体分别与日本群体、黄海群体杂交,其后代表现出显性随机效应达到0.10的水平(P<0.10),黄海群体自交、日本群体和黄海群体杂交随机效应不显著(P>0.05),因此在杂交组配中选择抗病群体与其他两个群体交配可取得较好的效果。     

A Modified Form of Mild-Slope Equation with Weakly Nonlinear Effect

Nonlinear effect is of importance to waves propagating from deep water to shallow water.Thenon-linearity of waves is widely discussed due to its high precision in application.But there are still someproblems in dealing with the nonlinear waves in practice.In this paper,a modified form of mild-slope equa-tion with weakly nonlinear effect is derived by use of the nonlinear dispersion relation and the steady mild-slope equation containing energy dissipation.The modified form of mild-slope equation is convenient to solvenonlinear effect of waves.The model is tested against the laboratory measurement for the case of a submergedelliptical shoal on a slope beach given by Berkhoff et al,The present numerical results are also comparedwith those obtained through linear wave theory.Better agreement is obtained as the modified mild-slope e-quation is employed.And the modified mild-slope equation can reasonably simulate the weakly nonlinear ef-fect of wave propagation from deep water to coast.     

Optimal design of two-dimensional wings in ground effect using multi-objective genetic algorithm

The shape optimization of the 2-dimensional wing in ground effect (WIG) has been performed by the integration of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) and MOGA (multi-objective genetic algorithm). Because of the trade-off between the aerodynamic forces and the height stability, it is difficult to satisfy the design requirements of efficiency and stability at the same time. In this study, the lift coefficient, the lift-drag ratio and the static height stability are chosen as the objective functions to obtain the optimal wing profiles of a WIG craft. An NACA0015 airfoil is used for the baseline model; the aerodynamic characteristics of the base model are compared with that of the optimal solutions. The profile of the airfoil is constructed by four Bezier curves with fourteen control points resulting in the eighteen coordinates, which are adopted as the design variables. The optimal solutions of the multi-objective optimization are not unique but a set of the non-dominated optima: the Pareto frontiers or a Pareto set. As the results of the multi-objective optimization, the forty Pareto optima, which include high-lift, high-efficiency, and more stable airfoils on the edge of the 3-dimensional objective space, are obtained at thirty evolutions of the generation.     

Josephson junction of two-species Bose-Einstein condensates in a high-finesse optical cavity

The mean-field dynamics of undistinguishable two-species Bose Josephson junction coupled to a single mode high-finesse optical cavity is investigated. From the Hamiltonian, the phase portrait and the stationary points are given. It is shown that the role of the interspecies interaction equals the intraspecies interaction under suitable conditions. As the interspecies interaction increases, the trapped atoms will start tunneling between the two wells unnaturally for some special cases.